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[经济学人] [2009.10.01] Market fatigue 市场疲软

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发表于 2010-4-28 20:58 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

A special report on the world economy
世界经济特别报道


Market fatigue
市场疲软


Oct 1st 2009
From The Economist print edition


The Anglo-Saxon model has taken a knock
英美模式遭受打击


THE past two years have rather obscured the charms of the free market. For those seeking to restore their faith, a trip to the Kashmir Valley provides some unlikely solace. The floating vegetable market that assembles at dawn on Dal Lake is perhaps the easiest market in the world to romanticise.
过去两年,自由市场魅力大减。对重拾信心者,喀什米尔之旅可带来些许意外的慰藉。清晨,漂荡在达尔湖上人头攒动的蔬菜市场可能是世上最富浪漫色彩的集市。

Shortly after the call to prayer sounds from the lakeshore shrine, farmers and traders cast off on narrow skiffs to truck, barter and exchange. Their boats bob and sway as bids and offers rise and fall. Sellers bump gently into buyers, putting a foot in the customer’s boat to ensure that the deal does not drift away. Sprigs of mint, red coils of lotus root and bundles of knotted cabbage change hands for a few rupees, tossed from one boatman’s lap to another. The terms of exchange float freely—and, best of all, the traders do not need bailing out.
湖畔神庙的唤拜声响过不久,农民和商贩在窄窄的小船上便把缆绳解开,买卖,易货,交换。小船在湖面上下左右随波摇动,买价卖价也涨涨落落。两船轻轻碰触之间,卖家一脚踏住买家的船,这样生意就不会溜走。薄荷叶,红藕圈,卷菜捆,换几个卢比,菜便从一个船家身上抛到另一个船家身上。交换条件自由浮动——而且,最好的一点是,商贩不需要资金救援。

The market, it is worth remembering, is just a form of human exchange. “To be generically against markets would be almost as odd as being generically against conversations between people,” notes Amartya Sen, a Nobel prize-winning economist. The recent crisis was not a generic failure of markets but a specific failure of finance. The meltdown did no discredit to markets that exchange goods and services as opposed to assets and securities. On Dal Lake, the traders know what they are getting; a buyer picks out the bad beans and tosses them overboard before money changes hands. And the goods are perishable, leaving little time for speculation.
值得记住的是,市场只是人类交流的一种形式。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿玛蒂亚•森(Amartya Sen)说,“老是跟市场唱对台戏,就像别人说话你老唱反调一样令人奇怪。”这次危机不是一般性的市场失灵,而是金融这个特殊市场的失灵大崩溃令资产和证券市场蒙羞,并商品与劳务交易市场却毫发无损。达尔湖上,商贩知道他们得到的是什么,在买卖双方钱、物易主之前,买主先把烂豆子挑出来,扔下船去。蔬菜易烂,想投机时间不允许。

Nonetheless, for many observers the retreat of Anglo-Saxon liberalism is one of the most telling parts of the new normal. Pimco’s Mr El-Erian argues that the crisis has broken the spell of the “mystical Anglo-Saxon model of liberalisation and deregulation”. Australia’s prime minister, Kevin Rudd, recently heralded the overthrow of neoliberalism, “the economic orthodoxy of our time”. In the run-up to Japan’s recent election, Yukio Hatoyama, the victorious candidate for prime minister, campaigned against “unrestrained market fundamentalism”.
不管怎么说,对许多观察家来说,英美式自由主义的退败是新常态市场浓墨重彩的一笔。太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的埃里安(El-Erian)认为,危机破除了“神秘的英美式自由经营与放宽管制”的魔力。澳大利亚总理陆克文(Kevin Rudd)近来预测了新自由主义的倾覆,“那可是我们这个时代的正统经济模式”。在日本最近选举的准备阶段,后来胜选的首相候选人鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)便对“无节制的市场原教旨主义”开了炮。

Liberal reforms designed to increase the supply-side capacity of an economy, for example by removing barriers to entry, lose some of their urgency when the economy is too weak to achieve the potential it already has. And when financial markets are subdued, a reforming policymaker cannot count on a stockmarket rally to reward him.
自由主义改革,旨在提高一经济体的供应产能,如消除进入市场的障碍等,而当经济疲软,无法实现其潜力时,自由主义改革便失去了其紧迫性。当金融市场被压制,改革决策人不能指望股市反弹带来回报。

But in most industries the underlying logic of the Anglo-Saxon model is no more or less obvious today than it was two years ago. No one who believed, before the crisis, that manufacturing, telecommunications or steelmaking was the private sector’s job should have changed their mind since. It is the Anglo-Saxon model of deregulated and liberalised finance that has lost its mystique. Bunches of swaps, sprigs of auction-rate securities and bundles of subprime loans—these are perhaps the hardest markets in the world to romanticise.
但如今大多行业中英美模式的潜在逻辑并不比两年前有多少变化。危机前,凡是认为制造、电信、钢铁属于私营部门的,没有谁从此改变想法。正是英美的放松管制和自由经营的金融模式失去了自身的神秘之处。信用违约掉期交易,拍卖利率债券,次级贷,这些也许是世上最不浪漫的市场了

Arm's length or hands-on?
敬而远之还是亲密无间?


In the Anglo-Saxon model deep capital markets compete with banks, which also compete vigorously with each other. Transactions are carried out at arm’s length, on the basis of public information, at competitive prices, and under contracts enforceable by third parties.
英美模式下,深层资本市场同银行竞争,银行相互间也激烈竞争。交易是独立而疏远的,即在公共信息平台上,以竞争性价格在合同制约下由第三方强制执行。
Before the crisis this model was gradually gaining ground. Subir Lall of the IMF and his colleagues have documented the growth in “arm’s-length” finance in countries traditionally dominated by hands-on banks, such as Germany and France. Ten years ago, in the wake of Japan’s stagnation and the Asian financial crisis, Mr Rajan and Mr Zingales of the University of Chicago noted the “slow but steady ascendance of the public markets” and wondered if it heralded “the eventual supremacy of the arm’s-length, market-based, Anglo-Saxon system”.
在经济危机前,这一模式逐渐有了进步。国际货币基金组织的萨博•拉尔(Subir Lall)和他的同事记录了一些国家“放手式”金融业的增长,而这些国家如德国、法国,传统上都是由参与式银行支配。10年前,在日本经济及亚洲金融危机出现转机之时,芝加哥大学的拉詹(Rajan)和津加莱斯(Zingales)注意到“公共市场缓慢但稳步上升”,并怀疑此趋势是否预示了“放手式、以市场为基础的英美体系的优越性。”

That advance has dramatically reversed in the past two years (see chart 6). In the crisis, companies that had relied on selling marketable securities to raise working capital turned in desperation to their banks instead, tapping pre-arranged credit lines to keep afloat. At the same time many off-balance-sheet investment vehicles, supposedly at arm’s length from the banks that sponsored them, quickly returned to their sponsors’ bosoms when the markets failed to fund them.
这一进步在过去两年大为扭转(见表6)。在危机中,靠出售有价证券筹集周转资金的企业陷入绝境,反而向银行求助,以透支预先设定的信贷额度以保证还债能力。同时,许多资产负债表外的投资工具本应不受信贷银行的管束,在市场不能提供充足资金的情况下也转而投向银行怀抱。



The traditional alternative to arm’s-length finance is a more intimate system dominated by banks that maintain long-term relationships with their borrowers. In Japan, for example, companies traditionally turn to the same one or two banks for their financing. In Germany banks traditionally have block shareholdings in the companies they serve and put representatives on their boards.
银行同借贷者保持长期关系,放手式金融管理的传统替代模式即是由银行支配的更密切的体系。如在日本,企业通常向一两个银行求助,进行融资。在德国,银行通常在公司有客户做持股大股东,并由其在公司董事会做代表。

This clubbier finance offers three important advantages over the stand-offish Anglo-Saxon model. The banks know their customers better; they can smooth their lending to them during periods of misfortune; and they have “skin in the game”, retaining some responsibility for the loans they extend.
这种俱乐部式的融资同英美的放手模式相比有三条重要的优势:银行更了解客户;在公司困难时期银行可以向公司平稳借贷;银行也要“共担风险”,保留所放贷款的部分责任。

But a financial system based on stable relationships has its own drawbacks. In such a system a small cluster of banks comes to a committee decision on whether a venture is worth backing or not. The process requires bankers “to submerge their disagreements and accept a compromise”, as Franklin Allen and Douglas Gale point out in their book, “Comparing Financial Systems”.
但建立在稳定关系基础上的金融体系有其自身缺陷。这一体系中,在商议某个企业是否值得投资时,几个银行就能左右委员会的决定。正如富兰克林•艾伦(Franklin Allen)和道格拉斯•盖尔(Douglas Gale)在《比较金融体系》一书中指出,此过程要求银行家“压下分歧,接受妥协”。

The market, on the other hand, “allows investors to agree to disagree”. Thousands can place their bets, based on their own hunches and insights. Markets, therefore, have an edge whenever diversity of opinion matters. When it comes to financing new technologies or fresh ideas, it is often better to leave the job to the “wisdom of crowds” (the title of a book on markets by James Surowiecki) than to the conventional wisdom of loan officers in a bank.
另一方面,市场“允许投资人求同存异”。成千上万的投资者根据自己的直觉和洞察力进行投资。所以,只要思想多样化受重视,市场就有优势。说到为新技术或新点子融资,最好把选择权交给“群体智慧”(詹姆斯•索罗维基所著关于市场的一本书名),而不能交给让银行那些观念保守的信贷员。

Mr Lall of the IMF and his co-authors have tried to show this empirically by looking at the industries that contributed the most to world growth from 1980 to 2001. Countries that specialised in those industries in 1980 duly prospered over the subsequent 20 years. Countries that had the “wrong” industrial mix did less well. But the researchers found that starting out with the wrong industries was less of a problem for countries with arm’s-length financial systems. Mr Lall reckons these systems do a better job of reallocating resources from declining to growing sectors.
通过调查1980年到2001年为世界经济增长做出最大贡献的产业,IMF的拉尔和他的合著者凭借经验努力揭示这一点。1980年专注于这些产业的国家在随后的20年内蒸蒸日上。而产业结构“不合理”的国家就没那么好了。但研究者发现,产业不合理的国家在放手式的金融体制中却问题不多。拉尔认为,这种金融体制在把资源从下降产业重新分配到上升产业方面做得更好。

The worst of both worlds
两头吃亏


The markets most damaged by the crisis are those for securitised assets. Securitisation is supposed to turn a long-term banking relationship, ie, a loan, into an arm’s-length transaction, the sale and purchase of a security backed by loans. But it ended up caught halfway between the two. Banks, as many commentators have noted, kept a surprising share of subprime securities on their balance-sheets rather than selling them on. According to a study by Hyun Shin of Princeton University and his co-authors, they suffered over 30% of the subprime losses in 2008.
被危机破坏最严重的是证券化资产市场。证券化本应该把长期银行关系,即信贷关系,转化成放手式交易,即由贷款担保证券的买卖关系。但这样做最终陷于不上不下的亲疏之间。许多评论家注意到,银行在资产负债表上持有次级贷证券中惊人的份额,而不是卖给其它公司。普林斯顿大学申铉(Hyun Shin)及合著者的研究表明,银行在2008年的次级贷损失高于30%。

This cross-bred model provided none of the advantages of arm’s-length securitisation, which was supposed to move default risk away from the banking system, spreading it widely to those best placed to bear it. Nor did the model provide any of the advantages of “intimate finance”. The banks had no relationship with the mortgage-holders or companies from whose borrowings their mincemeat securities were reconstituted.
这一混合模式没有独立证券化的任何优点,而独立证券化本应使银行系统摆脱违约风险,把风险平摊到承受风险能力最强的部分。混合模式也没有“亲密型融资”的任何优点。通过从抵押贷款持有人或公司的借款,杂烩债券得到重组,但银行同抵押贷款持有人或持有公司并没有关系。

Why did banks keep these securities, rather than sell them on? Mr Shin argues that banks held mortgage-backed securities so that they could borrow against them. The demand for securitised assets was, in essence, a demand for leverage.
为什么银行要继续持有这些证券,而不是卖给其它公司?申铉认为,银行持有抵押贷款证券,这样就能以证券借贷。证券化资产的需求本质上是杠杆需求。

If banks could not borrow from pension funds or other investors, they turned to other banks instead. In this way they wove a cat’s cradle of cross-claims on each other: one bank’s liability was another bank’s asset. This made the banking system more fragile, not less. If one bank took the precaution of trimming its assets, it deprived another bank of funding. Prudence in one institution might then inspire panic in another.
如果银行不能从养老基金或其他投资人手中借到钱,就会求助其它银行。如此一来,银行间就像翻花绳一样,彼此交叉持股:一家银行的负债是另一家银行的资产。这使银行系统更脆弱,而不是更强大。如果一家银行采取预防措施,削减资产,另一家银行的资金就没有了。一家银行的谨慎之举可能会激发另一家的恐慌之情。

Low-octane fuel
低能量燃料


The banks’ freedom to borrow will be regulated more tightly in the new normal. They will be required to hold more capital “once recovery is assured”, the G20 finance ministers and central bankers said in September. Mr Shin argues that these capital requirements should tighten in booms, when banks become more eager to borrow, and ease in busts.
银行自由借贷在新常态市场下会得到更严格的监管。今年9月,20国财长及央行行长说,一旦经济复苏有保证,银行必须持有更多资金。申铉认为,对资金的要求在经济繁荣时应该收紧,此时银行更急于借贷,而在经济衰退时则应放宽。

Regulators in Europe and America may also oblige the creators of these securities to hold on to 5% of the value of the assets they distribute to others. Five per cent does not sound like much, but in 2007 they held an average of just 1.5%, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. The fund’s calculations suggest that a 5% requirement would be enough to close some securitisation markets for good.
欧洲和美国的监管机构也可能迫使这些证券创设者持有发行资产价值5%的比例。5个百分点听起来不多,但据IMF全球金融稳定性报告说,2007年创立者持有证券平均只有1.5%。IMF的计算结果证明,5%的要求足可以永远关闭某些证券化市场。

For its part, the IMF does not want to see securitisation return to its “high-octane levels” of 2005-07. But it nonetheless thinks regulators should mend securitisation, not end it. The banks, it points out, cannot fill the lending gap left by these markets. And the securities the banks now borrow against will need replacing with fresh ones as they mature. “In light of the current constraints on lending capacity, restarting securitisation could help get credit growth moving again,” it notes.
对此,IMF并不想证券化重回2005-07年间的“高能量标准”。但不论如何,IMF希望监管机构整顿证券化市场,而不是整垮市场。IMF指出,银行无法满足证券化市场留下的缺口。而且银行用以获取贷款所抵押的证券到期时,需要有新证券来取而代之。IMF强调,“鉴于当前对放贷能力的限制,重启证券化市场能拉动信贷增长。”

The IMF is right that the securitisation market’s misery is hurting credit and therefore demand. But it need not do lasting damage to the economy’s longer-run prospects. These markets are a dominant provider of mortgage finance and an important source of car loans and consumer credit. That is a good thing, as far as it goes. But home- and car-ownership are hardly the engines of economic growth. Indeed, the acceleration of credit during the securitisation era was not matched by an acceleration in economic output.
证券化市场的低迷影响信贷,于是产生了对证券化市场的需求,在这一点上IMF是正确的。但并不会对更长期的经济前景造成永久性的破坏。证券化市场是抵押贷款融资的主流来源,也是汽车贷款及消费信贷的重要渠道。目前来说这是好事。但是购置房产及汽车并不是经济增长的发动机。其实,证券化时代信贷加速比不上经济产出的加速。

In the long run growth depends on replacing obsolete methods of production with better ones, and supplanting old industries with new ones. Repackaging subprime mortgages does not further that cause, but other arm’s-length markets do. As Messrs Allen and Gale note, the Anglo-Saxon stockmarkets have been conspicuously successful at sponsoring new industries and reallocating resources to them. For all its excesses and eccentricities, these feats of economic reinvention are the Anglo-Saxon model’s saving grace—and they remain vital to the process of industrial renewal, the subject of the next article.
长远看来,经济增长靠的是生产方式的优胜劣汰,靠的是产业结构的更新换代。把次级抵押贷款重新包装并不能让经济进一步发展,而其它公平市场却能做到。艾伦和盖尔注意到,在投资新产业、向新产业倾斜而重新配置资源方面,英美证券市场很明显是成功的。英美模式虽然时常有过分、怪异表现,发掘新经济的功绩却是其可取之处——且在产业更新过程仍至关重要,这正是下一篇文章的主题(注1)。



注1:即本期特别报道文章:Industrial Design。
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发表于 2010-4-28 21:23 | 显示全部楼层
underlying logic 应该是潜在逻辑的意思吧
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发表于 2010-4-28 21:48 | 显示全部楼层
1)Shortly after the call to prayer sounds from the lakeshore shrine, farmers and traders cast off on narrow skiffs to truck, barter and exchange. Their boats bob and sway as bids and offers rise and fall. Sellers bump gently into buyers, putting a foot in the customer’s boat to ensure that the deal does not drift away. Sprigs of mint, red coils of lotus root and bundles of knotted cabbage change hands for a few rupees, tossed from one boatman’s lap to another. The terms of exchange float freely—and, best of all, the traders do not need bailing out原译:湖畔神庙的唤拜声响过不久,农民和商贩在窄窄的小船上便把缆绳解开,装船,易货,交换。小船在湖面上下左右随波摇动,买价卖价也是涨涨落落。卖主轻碰着买家,一只脚踏住买主的船,这样买卖就不会溜掉。薄荷叶,红藕圈,卷菜捆,卖了几个卢比,菜便从一个船家身上抛到另一个船家身上。交换条件自由浮动——而且,最好的一点是,商贩不需要资金救援。
评论: 译得甚生动。
Truck, barter and exchange. 这三个词是同义, 都是交换, 尤其是以物易物。 而不是“装船,易货,交换”。
Sellers bump gently into buyers 是卖主的船轻碰着买家的船。
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:13 | 显示全部楼层
2)The market, it is worth remembering, is just a form of human exchange. “To be generically against markets would be almost as odd as being generically against conversations between people,” notes Amartya Sen, a Nobel prize-winning economist. The recent crisis was not a generic failure of markets but a specific failure of finance. The meltdown did no discredit to markets that exchange goods and services as opposed to assets and securities. On Dal Lake, the traders know what they are getting; a buyer picks out the bad beans and tosses them overboard before money changes hands. And the goods are perishable, leaving little time for speculation.原译:值得记住的是,市场只是人类交换的一种形式。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿玛蒂亚•森(Amartya Sen)注意到,“一贯逆市场而动,就像人们谈话你却老是唱反调,都一样怪异。”这次危机不是一般性的市场失灵,而是个体性融资失灵。大崩溃打击的是资产和证券,并不是商品与服务的交易市场。达尔湖上,商贩知道他们得到的是什么,在买卖双方钱、物易主之前,买主先把烂豆子挑出来,扔下船去。蔬菜易烂,想投机时间不允许。
评论:The market, it is worth remembering, is just a form of human exchange. 最好译成更一般的“市场只是人类交流的一种形式”。 交流比交换还一般。 例如人们之间互相谈话是交流,当然,在特殊情况下也可以说是交换(情报)。 译成交流, 便于译下面一句。
“To be generically against markets would be almost as odd as being generically against conversations between people,” 从一般的涵义上反对市场, 就跟从一般的涵义上反对人们之间的言谈交流一样令人奇怪。
The recent crisis was not a generic failure of markets but a specific failure of finance. The meltdown did no discredit to markets that exchange goods and services as opposed to assets and securities. 这次危机不是一般性的市场失灵,而是金融这个特殊市场的失灵。大崩溃令资产和证券市场蒙羞,而进行商品与劳务交易市场却毫发无损。
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:38 | 显示全部楼层
3)Nonetheless, for many observers the retreat of Anglo-Saxon liberalism is one of the most telling parts of the new normal.原译:不管怎么说,对许多观察家来说,英美式自由主义的退败最能说明新常态市场的到来。
评论: telling = striking, effective. 英美式自由主义的退败是新常态(市场)的最引人注目之一部。
4)Liberal reforms designed to increase the supply-side capacity of an economy, for example by removing barriers to entry, lose some of their urgency when the economy is too weak to achieve the potential it already has. 原译: 自由主义改革,旨在提高供应方的经济能力,如消除进入市场的障碍等,而当经济疲软,无法实现其潜力时,自由主义改革便失去了其紧迫性。
评论: increase the supply-side capacity of an economy 应是: 增加某个经济体供给方的能力。 等于increase the capacity of the supply-side of an economy.
too weak to achieve the potential it already has, 是:经济疲软,无法实现其已经具有的潜力
5)Bunches of swaps, sprigs of auction-rate securities and bundles of subprime loans—these are perhaps the hardest markets in the world to romanticise. 原译:批量交换,标售利率证券业务,打包次级贷,这些大概是世上最不浪漫的市场。
评论: swaps 指得是credit default swaps, 信用违约掉期交易,
Auction-rate securities 指得是拍卖利率债券。
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:03 | 显示全部楼层
6)Arm’s-length or hands-on? 原译:保持距离还是亲自参与?
评论: 这是整整一个段的标题。 很重要。
Arm’s –length 指得是疏远而独立,拒人于一臂之长之外。  各种交易不讲人情关系, 完全凭借市场。
Hands-on 指得是亲密无间,手都碰到。 与arm’s –length 相反。

看看文章对arm’s length 的解释:
In the Anglo-Saxon model deep capital markets compete with banks, which also compete vigorously with each other. Transactions are carried out at arm’s length, on the basis of public information, at competitive prices, and under contracts enforceable by third parties.
原译: 英美模式下,深层资本市场同银行竞争,银行相互间也激烈竞争。公平交易是在公共信息基础上,以竞争性价格根据合同由第三方强制执行。

评论: 交易是疏远而独立的, 也就是说靠的是公共的信息、价格是竞争性的价格、还有合同制约,此合同由第三方(政府) 强制执行。
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:28 | 显示全部楼层
7)Securitisation is supposed to turn a long-term banking relationship, ie, a loan, into an arm’s-length transaction, the sale and purchase of a security backed by loans. But it ended up caught halfway between the two. 原译:证券化应该把长期银行关系,即信贷关系,转成放手式交易,即由贷款支撑的买和卖。但这样做最终陷于买卖之间。
评论:证券化本应该把这种长期银行关系,即信贷关系,转化成一种疏远而独立的交易,亦即出售和购买由贷款担保的证券。 但这样做最终不上不下,不前不后,陷于两者(疏远独立和亲密无间)之间。
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:53 | 显示全部楼层
8)But home- and car-ownership are hardly the engines of economic growth. Indeed, the acceleration of credit during the securitisation era was not matched by an acceleration in economic output. 原译:但是购置房产及汽车并不是经济增长的发动机。其实,证券化时代信贷加速比不上经济产出的加速。
评论:原译译反了。  信贷只是经济体产能的皮相, 而不是其实质。 何以见得?证券化时代信贷加速增长, 如果信贷是经济增长的发动机的话, 那么, 经济产出的加速增长也应到来, 而且匹配信贷的加速增长。 但是, 事实上,Indeed, the acceleration of credit during the securitisation era was not matched by an acceleration in economic output.。 这种匹配不存在。
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢Eugene同学这么详细的点评!受益受益,收下了!
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