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[经济学人] [2009.07.21] New Jersey's race for governor 新泽西的州长选举

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
New Jersey's race for governor
新泽西的州长选举


The target
活靶子


Jul 23rd 2009 | HOLMDEL, NEW JERSEY
From The Economist print edition


Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, looks vulnerable
乔·考兹尼,破绽百出的民主党现任州长



Reuters
考尼兹(右)与朋友

MORE than 17,000 people turned up in the hot sun on July 16th to see Barack Obama speak at a campaign rally. It was his first visit to New Jersey since be became president. A DJ played “Glory Days” by Bruce Springsteen, New Jersey’s famous son. Some of the waiting crowd began to dance when the sound system belted out a Michael Jackson tune. When Mr Obama appeared on stage the place erupted. And oh yes, Jon Corzine, who is hoping to be re-elected this November as governor, was there too.

7月16日超过17000人顶着烈日出来听巴拉克·奥巴马在竞选集会上发表演讲。这是他就任总统以来第一次到访新泽西州。DJ 播放着闻名遐迩的新泽西歌手布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀的“荣耀之日”。当音响中传来迈克尔·杰克逊的歌曲时,等待的人群中有人跳起舞来。而当奥巴马先生在看台上现身,整个场子都沸腾起来。然后当然,希望11月能连任州长的乔·考兹尼,也出现在那里。

Mr Corzine needs some of Mr Obama’s popularity to rub off on him. Mr Obama won the state handily last November, but Mr Corzine is not so blessed. Not only is he 12 points behind Chris Christie, his Republican rival, but a recent poll revealed that only a third of New Jersey voters approve of the job he is doing. “Having the president gives you a bump,” says Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter. “But that wanes after a few days.” More worrying, only 13% say Mr Corzine can point to any major accomplishments in his first term. Mr Corzine, perhaps because of the need to be tight-lipped when he ran Goldman Sachs, is not a natural braggart.

考兹尼先生是需要沾上一点奥巴马先生高人气的光。去年11月奥巴马很干脆的赢下了这个州,然而考兹尼先生则没有这样的福气。他不仅落后克里斯·克里斯蒂,他的共和党对手12个百分点,而且最近的一次民调显示只有1/3的新泽西选民赞同他所做的工作。“总统会让你的支持率跳升一截,”来自无党派的时事通讯社——“库克政治报道”的Jennifer Duffy 说,“然而几天后又打回原形。”更值得忧虑的是,只有13%的人能够说出考尼兹先生在他的第一个任期中所取得的任意一项主要成就。或许是因为在掌管高盛公司时必须守口如瓶,考尼兹先生做不到轻松自如地自卖自夸。

He needs to become a bit more of one, because he has in fact had a fair few successes. He is the first governor for 60 years to reduce the size of government. He has changed education funding so that it is more evenly distributed. And last month his budget, crafted in tough economic circumstances, reduced spending while providing some property-tax relief.

而他必须变得更善于自我推销一些,因为事实上他确实取得了相当一些成果。他是60年以来第一个缩减了政府规模的州长。他改革了教育基金,使其分配更为公平。如此严峻的经济形势下,上个月他所精心编制的预算在削减支出的同时,还减免了部分财产税。

Chris Christie is certainly taking advantage of Mr Corzine’s reticence. He is a well-respected former federal prosecutor who gained a reputation for fighting corruption. He is a harsh critic of Mr Corzine’s economic policies, which is going down well in a state with unemployment reaching a rate not seen since 1977 and the nation’s heaviest tax burden. Mr Corzine, the Wall Street financier, was supposed to fix this, but hasn’t been able to so far, though Mr Christie hasn’t provided much of an alternative plan. It is only July and already the campaign is nasty and sure to get worse.

克里斯·克里斯蒂当然从考尼兹先生的缄口中获益非浅。他是一个广受尊敬的前联邦检察官,因为与腐败作战而声名鹊起。他对考尼兹先生的经济政策吹毛求疵,尽管这一政策在一个失业率升至1977年以来最高,税收负担居全国之冠的州运转的还不赖。考尼兹先生,这个华尔街的金融家曾被认为能够扭转上述困境,但到目前为止尚无力完成,然而克里斯蒂先生同样无法提出一个更为高明的替代方案。现在只是7月,选战已变得令人作呕,而且肯定将越来越糟。

Mr Corzine’s biggest obstacle is the perception that he is a distant technocrat who is unable to connect with ordinary voters. Yet his recent speeches, in particular his primary-victory speech and the one he gave at the rally, were passionate and crowd-pleasing. He still needs to do a better job at reaching out to the newly registered voters who voted for Mr Obama. The Republican Mr Christie sees the wisdom in this too and has, cunningly, released a web video courting New Jerseyans who voted for the president. Both candidates are taking a page from Mr Obama’s campaign playbook by focusing on new media like Facebook and YouTube. Mr Christie announced his choice for lieutenant governor via Twitter. This is especially clever as the candidates are faced with two of the most expensive television markets, New York City and Philadelphia. Mr Christie is relying on public financing to fund his campaign, while Mr Corzine is mostly opening his own large wallet.

考尼兹先生最大的障碍在于他的感知力,作为一个冷淡的技术官僚,他不能做到与普通选民息息相通。虽然他最近的演说,特别是初选胜利后的演讲,以及他在集会上的演讲,充满激情,并贴近了大众口味。但他在与那些投奥巴马先生票的新注册选民建立联系方面仍需要做得更好。共和党人克里斯蒂先生也发现了这样做的明智之处,并且狡猾地上传了网络视频讨好那些投总统票的新泽西人。两个候选人都从奥巴马先生的竞选剧本中学到了一招,即聚焦于像 Facebook[1] 与 YouTube[2] 那样的新兴媒体。克里斯蒂先生通过Twitter[3] 宣布了他的副州长人选。考虑到候选人所面对的是两个最为昂贵的电视市场:纽约市与费城时,这一举动显得尤其巧妙。克里斯蒂先生依靠公共基金[4]来支持他的选战,而钱包鼓鼓的考尼兹先生则大多数时候都自掏腰包。

The race is gathering national attention. Only New Jersey and Virginia have governors’ races this year. The Virginia race looks tight, but the Republicans would be able to trumpet a win in New Jersey, a famously blue state, as an early referendum on the Obama administration before next year’s mid-term election, when 36 Senate seats and the whole House are up for grabs. There is an encouraging New Jersey precedent for them. Christine Todd Whitman’s victory over Jim Florio in 1993 turned out to be the precursor to the 1994 Republican national sweep.

这场竞选吸引了全国的目光。今年只有新泽西州与弗吉尼亚州有州长选举。弗吉尼亚州的选战看上去十分接近,然而一旦在新州,一个著名的蓝州[5]取胜,共和党人就能大吹大擂,把这看作是明年中期选举之前针对奥巴马政府的一次提早的公民投票,届时有36个参议员席位以及整个众议院都要经历改选。对于共和党人,新泽西州有一个鼓舞人心的前例可循,1993年,Christine Todd Whitman 战胜了Jim Florio,并最终成为1994年共和党人横扫全国的先声[6]。

[1] Facebook:全球最大的社交网站,用户数已超过2亿
[2] YouTube:全球最大的视频分享网站,可供用户上传、观看及分享视频短片。目前已成为改变美国政治竞选生态的重要工具
[3] Twitter:提供微博客服务的著名网站,允许用户将自己的最新动态和想法以短信息的形式发送给手机和个性化网站群
[4] 候选人在竞选公职时可以申请公共基金,但其花费也被限制在一定范围内,因此许多筹款能力高(如小布什、奥巴马)或家财万贯者(如纽约市长布隆伯格)为打赢选战就会放弃这一权利,借此摆脱法律的束缚
[5] blue state:传统上支持民主党的州
[6] 1994年的中期选举,共和党依靠强有力的改革政纲出人意料地重创民主党,40年来首次夺下了两院的控制权,史称“共和党革命”
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:26 | 显示全部楼层
依然那么好,呵呵,学习了
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