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[经济学人] [2007.2.22]Musharraf’s choice:

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Musharraf’s choice: President of Pakistan or dictator of ‘Problemistan’?
穆沙拉夫的选择:巴基斯坦的总统或是工于心计的独裁者?

OPINION
[2007.2.22] fm CSM
BY Brahma Chellaney



THE FIGHT AGAINST international terrorism cannot be won without demilitarizing and deradicalizing Pakistan. That’s what makes Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s latest move so worrisome.
若巴基斯坦穷兵黩武,政治激进,全球反恐战争将不会胜利。这就使穆沙拉夫总统最近的行动非常让人担忧。

Mr. Musharraf took power more than seven years ago in a military coup. Since then, national conditions have markedly worsened. A military dictatorship justified as essential for bringing stability has actually taken the country to the edge.
穆沙拉夫在七年多前的一次军事政变中取得政权。从此以后国力显注下降。用军事独裁换来社会稳定实际上反而将国家引至悬崖。

Now, without drawing international attention, Musharraf has unveiled a plan that will make Pakistan’s greatly awaited elections a farce. Under this plan, the outgoing parliament and four provincial legislatures would “elect” him to a new five-year term as president in the fall, before
he oversees national polls a few months later.
现在没有引起国际关注,穆沙拉夫拉开序幕,将众人期待的选举变为闹剧。解散议会,四个省的立法机构将于秋季选举他为新的总统,任期5,几个月后他监督全国投票工作。

Five years ago, Musharraf orchestrated another charade – a referendum– to extend his self-declared presidency.
5年前穆沙拉夫策划了另一场政治游戏,以全民公投延长他自封的总统任期。

Musharraf’s maneuver is the latest in a long series of broken promises to return his country to democracy. And it does not bode well for Pakistan’s central challenge: moving away from militarism, extremism, and fundamentalism, and toward a stable, moderate state.
穆沙拉夫长期违背让巴基斯坦重返民主国家的许多承诺,最近又进行了大规模的军事演习。这对巴基斯坦面临的主要挑战,摆脱军国主义,激进和教旨一主义,成为一个安定稳健的国家,不是个好兆头。

The perils of ‘partnership’ in the war on terror
反恐搭档暗藏危机

Although the United States compelled Pakistan post-9/11 to abandon the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and become an ally in the war on terrorism, that partnership has yielded dubious results.
虽然美国强制巴基斯坦在911之后放弃阿富汉塔利班政权,成为反恐战争同盟,但是这种同盟关系带来的结果值得怀疑。

To be sure, Musharraf’s cooperation led to the capture of some Al Qaeda figures such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Zubaydah. But it’s becoming increasingly clear that he is unwilling or unable to crack down on the terrorist radicals in his midst. His foreign minister boasted that Pakistan had not handed “a single Pakistani” to America and that all the Al Qaeda men captured and transferred to US authorities were foreigners.
毋庸置疑,有了穆沙拉夫的合作,一些阿富汗盖达(基地)组织的头目,如卡利德和阿布·祖巴耶达赫,就能被绳之以法。但情况变得越来越明显,他压根就不愿也不能消灭激进的恐怖主义分子。他的外交部长就自诩巴基斯坦政府过去没有把一个巴基斯坦人交给美国,那些被捕并转移给美国当局的基地组织成员都是外国人。

Pakistan’s home-grown, Al Qaeda-linked Islamist militias continue to operate openly. Indeed Musharraf’s main benefactor, President Bush, said last week: “Taliban and Al Qaeda figures do hide in remote regions of Pakistan. This is wild country; this is wilder than the Wild West.”
巴基斯坦当地与基地组织有关的伊斯兰教民兵继续公开活动。上周穆沙拉夫的主要支持者美国总统布什就说:“塔利班和基地组织的头目就躲在巴基斯坦的偏僻地区。这个国家之野蛮,更甚野蛮的西方。”

Musharraf’s sinking popularity has spurred speculation that he might declare a state of emergency to smother vocal opposition. But the more power he usurps, the more dependent he becomes on his military and intelligence. That limits his ability to sever their cozy ties with extremist and terrorist elements.
穆沙拉夫声望的下降促使他想发表一份紧急声明来遏制那些反对的声音。但是他攥取越多的权力,他就越需要依靠军队和情报机构。这也使他无法剪断与极端主义分子和恐怖主义分子间千丝万缕的联系。

Musharraf oils his dictatorship with generous American aid. Mr. Bush is too preoccupied with a self-created mess in Iraq to bother about the latest election shenanigan, especially when the Taliban resurgence (supported by Pakistani aid, critics charge) has made the NATO use of Pakistani airspace even more vital for military operations in Afghanistan. Bush’s intensifying confrontation with Iran has only enhanced Pakistan’s importance as a staging ground for US anti-Iranian operations.
穆沙拉夫的独裁统治得益于慷慨的美国的帮助。布什先生目前专注于自己在伊拉克捅出的篓子无暇估计顾及穆沙拉夫最近的选举阴谋,尤其是当北约须使用巴基斯坦的领空打击塔利班的复苏(批评家谴责巴对塔利班的援助),这使得巴基斯坦在这场阿富汗的军事行动中至关重要。同时,布什对伊朗的强硬面孔也只增加了巴基斯坦作为美国反对伊朗行动中战略地位的重要性。

The Commonwealth of Nations, which reinstated Pakistan’s membership after a 4-1/2-year suspension following the coup, has looked the other way ever since Musharraf reneged on the very promise that won his country reentry – to give up his dual role as president and Army chief by 2005. Don’t expect the Commonwealth to make even a peep when Musharraf stays on as Army chief beyond the next deadline of Nov. 15, 2007 – set by a constitutional amendment he himself engineered to miss the first deadline.
英联邦在巴政变后经历了4年半时间的悬而未决后,恢复了巴基斯坦联邦成员的身份,从那时起穆沙拉夫就违背了之前的承诺,英联邦也在寻找其他方法让他放弃葱005年开始国家总统和军队统帅的双重身份。

Although the only times when India and Pakistan have come close to peace have been during the brief periods of democratic rule in Islamabad, New Delhi has played no small role in helping Musharraf gain legitimacy from the time it invited him out of the blue to a 2001 peace summit. Today, India not only refrains from speaking about the lack of democracy in Pakistan but, in a major policy reversal, has come to see Musharraf as a partner against terrorism.
虽然只有在印巴之间趋于和平的那段时间里,伊斯兰堡有了短暂的民主,但是从印度将穆沙拉夫带出阴霾力邀其参加2001年和平峰会之日起,新德里在帮助穆沙拉夫取得合法权力地位的过程中已不再是小角色。今天,印度不仅对巴基斯坦缺乏民主的问题三缄其口,更是在主要的政策分歧上逐渐将穆沙拉夫视为反恐同盟。

A dictatorship that is part of the problem has ingeniously presented itself to the outside world as part of the solution. The scourge of Pakistani terrorism emanates not so much from the Islamist mullahs as from generals who reared the forces of jihad and fathered the Taliban and Al Qaedalinked groups such as the Lashkar-i-Tayyaba. Yet by passing the blame for their disastrous jihad policy to their mullah puppets, Musharraf and his fellow generals have made many outsiders believe that the key is to contain the religious fringe, not the puppeteers.
独裁原本是问题之一,现在反而巧妙地变为解决问题的方法之一。巴基斯坦恐怖主义的元凶并非大都来自穆斯林长老,不像塔利班和基地组织,比如以巴基斯坦为基地的虔诚军。然而通过向他们的长老傀儡谴责圣战政策,穆沙拉夫和他的军界拥护者们已经使外界相信,反恐的关键是保存宗教的生存空间,而非培养傀儡。

Why military rule must end
为什么军队统治必须终结

Musharraf perpetuates the self-serving myth that his rule helps prevent an Islamist takeover. But military rule would persist in the event of his sudden death.
穆沙拉夫只为了他的统治不被伊斯兰教徒篡夺的神话得以延续。但是即使他突然死亡,军队统治也会延续下去。

Until the military’s viselike grip on power is broken and the rogue Inter-Services Intelligence agency is cut to size, Pakistan is likely to remain a common thread in the investigations of most acts of international terrorism.
巴基斯坦可能继续他们在国际反恐行动调查中的威慑力,直到军队掌权的瓦解和游离的内部情报机构的规模被削减。

In the absence of open elections, military rule has created a pressure-cooker society. What Pakistan needs is a safety valve – true democratic participation that would empower the masses and decide issues at the ballot box.
因为缺乏公开选举,军事统治制造了一个有如压力锅般的社会,巴基斯坦需要的是一个安全阀门—真实的民主参与,赋予人民大众权力并通过投票箱来做决定。

Jihad culture is now deeply woven into Pakistan’s national fabric. Unraveling it won’t be easy. But it is essential. Heavy-handed rule from Musharraf – or any other general – won’t eliminate Pakistan’s extremist elements. The development of a robust civil society – though painful in the short term – will aid democracy, marginalize radicals, and bring Pakistan back from the brink.
圣战文化已深深植入了巴基斯坦国家结构中,根除它实属不易。但是它又是不可或缺的。穆沙拉夫的拙劣手段—或其他军事领导人—都无法消除极端主义者。一个充满活力的文明社会的发展—虽然短期内有阵痛—都将推动民主,消除激进,使巴基斯坦悬崖勒马。

Some may think that Musharraf’s scheme to stay enthroned is a necessary evil in the service of a greater good. That’s half right: It is evil, but it’s not necessary. The West needs to exert pressure on him to show real courage – and to bring real reform – by holding himself accountable to voters and making coming elections an honest affair.
Brahma Chellaney
有些人认为穆沙拉夫继续独揽大权的计划是成大善难免小恶,这只说对了一半,这是恶,但不是“难免”。西方国家要展示真实的勇气向穆沙拉夫施压,令其改革,让他向选民负责,让即将到来的选举变得诚实。

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.
Brahma Chellaney是新德里一家有私人赞助的政策研究中心致力于战略研究的教授。
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