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[经济学人] [2009.9.3] Closer to Uribe 3.0 乌里韦3代更近了

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:49 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Term limits in Colombia
哥伦比亚总统任期限制

Closer to Uribe 3.0
乌里韦3代更近了


Sep 3rd 2009 | BOGOTá
From The Economist print edition


But the courts could still block it
但法院仍然否决该提案




DESPITE being holed up with swine flu, Colombia’s president, Álvaro Uribe had reason to celebrate this week. After weeks of maneuvering, the lower house of Congress approved the final text of a law to call a referendum on changing the constitution to allow Mr Uribe to run for a third consecutive term—an unprecedented abandonment of term limits in a country that until recently was zealously mistrustful of executive power.

虽然因感染了禽流感而闭门不出,但本周的哥伦比亚总统阿尔瓦罗•乌里韦却有理由举杯相庆了。在数周的部署之后,国会众议院批准了一项最终议案,同意举行公民投票以决定是否修改宪法,使乌里韦先生有权参加竞选以连续第三次出任总统。在一个直到最近仍对总统的行政权力极度怀疑的国家,如此取消总统任期限制是前所未有的。

That is tribute to Mr Uribe’s extraordinary popularity among Colombians, most of whom see him as their saviour from decades of mounting guerrilla and paramilitary violence. But even though the measure has surmounted its final legislative hurdle, it remains uncertain whether Mr Uribe will in fact be a candidate in the election due next May.

这要得益于乌里韦先生在哥伦比亚民众中的超高人气,他们中的大多数人都把他视为带领他们走出几十年来不断升级的游击和准军事暴力的救世主。虽然该法案已越过了立法上的最后障碍,但乌里韦先生是否会真的参加明年5月的大选仍是个未知数。

Before a referendum can be held, the Constitutional Court must review both the text of the law and the procedures by which it was passed. Both are open to question. Though the court’s current justices have shown themselves generally sympathetic to Mr Uribe (who nominated a third of them), on such an important issue they may well show independence. Questions have been raised over the financing of the petition campaign with which the re-election drive began. The ambiguous wording of the referendum question was changed during the bill’s passage through Congress to make it clear that Mr Uribe could run in 2010, rather than having to wait four years.

在举行公投前,立宪法院必须对该法案条款及其审批程序进行审议。二者都值得商榷。虽然立宪法院的现任法官们对乌里韦先生(提名竞选第三个任期)基本上表示支持,但是在这个重大问题上,他们也可能会保持独立。他们对启动再选活动所需的请愿资金的来源提出了疑问。在国会最终审议批准该议案期间,原先关于公投的含糊其词已变得清晰明了了,即乌里韦先生可以参加2010年总统竞选,而不是再等4年。

In addition, opposition legislators claim that officials offered political favors to members of Congress in exchange for their votes in the referendum bill. On the same day the bill was approved, the Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant against a senator who is charged with receiving favours from officials in 2004, when Congress approved a similar constitutional change which allowed Mr Uribe to stand for a second term. The Congress itself is tarnished: more than two dozen former members of the president’s legislative coalition are under arrest because of their links to paramilitaries.

另外,反对党立法委员声称,有政府官员对国会议员进行政治行贿以换取他们对公投议案的支持。而在议案得到通过的同一天,最高法院对就一名参议员签发了逮捕令,后者被控于2004年收受政府官员政治贿赂;就在那年,国会批准了一个类似的修宪法案,允许乌里韦先生竞选连任。与此同时,国会本身也是劣迹斑斑,超过24位前总统立法联盟成员已经因与准军事组织有牵连而被逮捕,

Opponents’ biggest worry is that if Mr Uribe wins a third term the thinning lines that separate branches of government in Colombia would vanish altogether. In allowing the 2004 re-election amendment, the Constitutional Court said two consecutive terms were not a threat to the separation of powers. But three might be. Opponents point to the example set by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, who has secured the abolition of all term limits and has eviscerated the independence of the judiciary and local government. Mr Uribe’s supporters retort that, unlike Mr Chávez, their man is a democrat.

反对者最大的担忧在于,如果乌里韦先生第三次当选总统,那哥伦比亚日渐模糊的政府部门职责划分将立刻消失殆尽。立宪法院2004年批准再选修正案时曾表示,连续两届任期不会对权力分配造成威胁。但是,连续三届就有可能了。反对者以委内瑞拉的乌戈•查韦斯为例,后者成功的废除了总统任期的所有限制,并取消了司法及地方政府的独立性。但另一方面,乌里韦先生的支持者也提出反驳,认为他们的总统和查韦斯不一样,是个民主主义者。

Another obstacle is the timetable. If the court tarries over its judgment, there might not be enough time to organize a referendum even if one is allowed. The electoral law requires Mr Uribe to declare his candidacy by November 30th.

另一个障碍在于时间表。如果法院迟迟不作出判决,那最后即使是通过了也没有足够的时间来组织公投。依照选举法,乌里韦先生必须在11月30前宣布参加竞选。

Mr Uribe has still not said that he definitely wants another term. His only interest is to ensure that his “democratic security” policies continue, he insists. In May he said that he did not want to be seen as “someone who clings to power” and that “to perpetuate the president” was “inappropriate” in a country with “many and good leaders”. Nevertheless, his government has mobilized to push the referendum law through Congress.

但乌里韦先生仍未表示他确实是想继续连任。他坚称,他唯一感兴趣的是保证他的“民主安全”政策得以继续推行。今年5月,他又指出,他并不想被看成是一个“握着权利不放的人”,并且,在这样一个有着“许多优秀领导人”的国家里“长期霸占总统之位”是“不合适的”。尽管如此,他的政府早已开始调动各方关系来促成公投法案在国会得到通过。

Barring unexpected changes, there can be little doubt that if Mr Uribe were to run, he would win. Violence continues in Colombia, but it is increasingly confined to remote rural areas. The economy has held up surprisingly well. But Mr Uribe’s international standing would be damaged by the inevitable comparisons with Mr Chávez.

除了一些意想不到的变数外,乌里韦先生一旦参选,他将毫无疑问的获胜。虽然哥伦比亚国内暴力不断,但这些问题已越来越集中在偏远的乡村地区。同时,经济态势也出奇的好。但是,人们会不可避免的拿他与查韦斯先生作比较,因此乌里韦先生的国际威望将会受到影响。

In approving the referendum law, Congress has left several of the president’s leading supporters in limbo. Juan Manuel Santos, a former defence minister, and two other close allies of Mr Uribe have been poised for weeks to declare their candidacies, but only if that does not mean competing with the boss. For them, and for Colombia, the waiting continues.

在批准了公投法案后,国会已经使总统的几位主要支持者如坐针毡了。前国防部部长胡安•曼努埃尔•桑托斯以及其他两位乌里韦先生的亲密盟友在过去的数周内跃跃欲试,都准备宣布参加竞选,但前提必须是他们不和自己的老板同台较量。对他们,对哥伦比亚来说,还是得继续等待。
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