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[经济学人] [2009.1.29] Trouble with figures 都是数字惹得祸

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Law and order in Italy
意大利的法律与秩序


Trouble with figures
都是数字惹得祸


Jan 29th 2009 | ROME
From The Economist print edition


The problems that come from promising to crack down on immigration and crime
承诺严厉打击移民和犯罪所带来的问题

AT THE start of the year, Silvio Berlusconi must have felt everything was going his way. Italy’s right-wing prime minister was about to cure his biggest headache by selling the state’s holding in a troubled airline, Alitalia. His popularity rating was high. And the main opposition group, the Democratic Party (PD), had plunged into a crisis that could yet break it up.

在今年年初的时候,西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼一定觉得凡事都在朝着对自己有利的方向发展。这位意大利右翼总理正要把最令自己头疼的陷入困境的国有控股航空公司——意航卖掉。他的民望正高。而主要的反对党——民主党则陷入了一场分裂危机。

Yet during the past week, a black cloud has appeared on Mr Berlusconi’s horizon. The law-and-order clampdown that was at the heart of his victory in last April’s general election is in trouble on two fronts.

然而上一周,乌云笼罩了贝府。法律与秩序专项严打行动是他在去年四月份的大选中制胜的法宝,如今却遭遇了来自两个方面的麻烦。

One is in the southernmost part of Italy. Lampedusa, an island 310km (about 180 miles) north of Libya, has become the main gateway into Europe for Africans fleeing poverty and war. Of the 67,000 migrants who arrived in Europe by sea last year, according to UN figures, almost half landed on this patch of sand, which is a tenth the size of Martha’s Vineyard and has a resident population of barely 6,000.

麻烦的一方面来自意大利最南端。兰佩杜萨,这座距离利比亚北部310千米(大约180英里)的岛屿,已经变成了为逃离贫困和战争的非洲人进入欧洲的主要通道。联合国提供的数据显示,在去年由海路进入欧洲的67,000名难民中,几乎有过半数的人曾登陆过这个小岛,而这座小岛的大小只有玛莎葡萄园岛的十分之一,常住人口仅有6,000。

Only a minority of clandestine immigrants to Italy come by sea and the government says their number is declining. But they are far more noticeable than those who quietly overstay their visas. Last year their numbers soared by 75%, embarrassing a government committed to blocking illegal immigration. In December the interior minister, Roberto Maroni, opted for deterrence. Previously migrants had been transferred from Lampedusa to Sicily, where those not given refugee status eventually received an essentially meaningless expulsion order. Some then chose to stay illegally in Italy; others moved on to other European Union countries.

只有很少一部分非法移民是由海上进入意大利的,而且政府宣称这一数字还在减少。但是他们远不如那些悄然逾期居住的人值得关注。去年这个数字飙升了75%,这使得决意要阻止非法移民的政府很尴尬。十二月,内政部长罗伯托·马罗尼选择了阻止这样的情形继续下去。早先的移民已经从兰佩杜萨转移到了西西里岛,而那些没有获得难民资格的人最终是接到了一个没有实质意义的驱逐令。他们中的一些选择继续非法的待在意大利,另一些人则继续前往其他欧盟国家。

Now Mr Maroni has decreed that the migrants should be held at a new identification and expulsion centre on Lampedusa itself until they are repatriated. But there are snags. One is that the new centre does not exist. After a wave of illegal landings this month, the numbers in the existing facility, which has a capacity of 850, rose to 1,800. Some detainees have been sleeping in the open under plastic sheets. The leader of a PD group that visited the site on January 23rd said he found “people crowded together in the rain, dormitories with three or four times the number who should be there and an infirmary in which the injured are piled up together”.

如今,马罗尼先生下令移民在被遣送回国前需要待在兰佩杜萨当地的一个新的鉴定和遣返中心里。但这实施起来有障碍。一是没有一个这样的新中心。在经过了这个月的非法登陆潮后,现容量850人的机构中,已经容纳了1,800人。一些被拘留者一直盖着塑料布睡在露天。PD组的领导者在一月二十三号参观后形容他的所见,“人们在雨中聚成一团,宿舍里住着3到4倍于床位的人,而医务室里的伤员被罗在一起”。

The day after his visit, hundreds of detainees broke out of the camp and joined local people demonstrating against the government’s plan. The islanders’ fear, said their mayor, Bernardino De Rubeis, is that Lampedusa could become a Mediterranean Alcatraz. For another problem with Mr Maroni’s scheme is that many immigrants cannot be sent home, either because their nationality is untraceable or because Italy does not have a repatriation deal with their countries. Fewer than 200 have been flown back from Lampedusa.

就在他参观后的第二天,数百名被拘留者冲出营房,加入到当地人们对政府计划的抗议活动中。当地市长贝纳迪诺·者·鲁贝伊斯说,岛上居民所担心的是兰佩杜萨也许会变成一个地中海的阿尔卡兹监狱。马罗尼先生的计划的另一个问题是很多移民无法被送回家,要么是因为他们的国籍无法追查,要么是因为意大利跟他们的国家间没有遣返协议。只有不到二百人从兰佩杜萨被遣返。

In so far as it reflects a tough stance on immigration, the crisis on Lampedusa is unlikely to erode support for the government. Far more threatening are events in Lazio, the region around Rome, which has seen a string of rapes. On January 27th police arrested five Romanians suspected of a horrendous gang rape a week earlier. A murderous sex attack by a Romanian in Rome in October 2007 first stirred demands for a crackdown on crime and foreigners, to which Mr Berlusconi successfully responded in the election campaign. Both voters and opposition politicians are now asking if the government’s policies are working, particularly the deployment of 3,000 troops to help the police. This week Mr Berlusconi incautiously promised to increase that number tenfold, before backing away.

政府在对待移民问题上立场强硬,而兰佩杜萨岛上的危机不大可能会侵蚀民众对政府的支持。罗马周边地区拉齐奥所发生的一连串的强奸案才更具威胁性。一月二十七号,警察逮捕了涉嫌一周前的一起骇人惊闻的轮奸案的五个罗马尼亚人。2007年十月的一起由一个罗马尼亚人制造的致命性性袭击案件引发了人们对严厉打击外国人和犯罪的要求,贝卢斯科尼先生在大选中成功的对此作出了回应。如今,选民和反对党人士都在质疑政府的政策是否有效,尤其是部署 3,000人的部队以协助警察这项政策。这周贝卢斯科尼先生曾鲁莽的承诺在裁撤之前还要将这一数字增加十倍。

In characteristic style he did so with a politically incorrect quip that drew criticism even from his supporters. “We would have to have as many soldiers as beautiful women, and I don’t think that would be possible,” he said. It is often the way with politics. Once trouble starts, it grows.

贝卢斯科尼先生以特有的方式抛出一句不正确的隽语,从而招来甚至是他的支持者的批评。他说,“我们需要有很多的士兵,就如我们需要有很多的漂亮女人一样。但我不认为我们能拥有足够”。政治总是这样:一旦惹上了麻烦,就一发不可收拾。
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:40 | 显示全部楼层
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