大家论坛

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 808|回复: 0

[经济学人] [2010.03.31]Does he have what it takes? 他能成为一位称职的首相吗?

[复制链接]

178

主题

8245

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20414
发表于 2010-4-29 03:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Interview with David Cameron   
采访戴维·卡梅伦


Does he have what it takes?
他能成为一个称职的首相吗?


The Conservative leader, David Cameron, is still the favourite to be Britain’s next prime minister
保守党领导人戴维·卡梅伦仍是英国下任首相的最理想人选

Mar 31st 2010 | From The Economist print edition



HE HAS led the Conservative Party for more than four years and is the man most likely to lead Britain after the general election this spring. Yet people still wonder just who David Cameron is. This is not because he hides what he does or fudges what he thinks, as those on the receiving end of countless webcameron flashes and unending policy e-mails can attest. It is, rather, that his views are not always those of either his party or, perhaps, of his age.

当选保守党领袖已经四年多了,他现在还是最有可能在今年春季的大选中获胜并成为英国首相的男人。然而人们却想知道戴维·卡梅伦为何许人也?这并不是因为他隐瞒所做的事或是篡改其想法,能上网的人都可以从他的官网“卡梅伦网(webcameron)”上的无数视频和不断重复的政策邮件能了解他的一言一行。人们关注他是因为他的观点经常和他的政党或是他的同龄人之间的观点有所不同。


The Economist talked to Mr Cameron on March 29th, in the last of a series of on-the-record interviews with the leaders of the three main political parties. Though only 15 years younger than Gordon Brown, prime minister and leader of the Labour Party, he seems of a different generation, with an easy, human touch that Mr Brown often struggles to achieve. He has more obviously in common with the similarly 40-ish, six-foot-tall leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg. But Mr Cameron is an altogether slicker number, and a far more experienced political operator.

在对三个主要政党的领导人的一系列公开采访的最后一次,经济学人于3月29日与卡梅伦先生进行了访谈。尽管仅仅比现任首相和工党领袖戈登·布朗小15岁,卡梅伦似乎看起来更像是不同的一代人,他身上有布朗一直苦苦追求的随和与有人情味等品质。他和同样都为40多岁、6英尺高的自由民主党领袖尼克·克莱格有更多相同之处。但是,卡梅伦总体说来是一个时尚人士,同时也是一个更具经验的政治人物。

Those looking for the Big Idea from Mr Cameron will be disappointed. He has a very English scepticism about grand theories. His identity lies somewhere between liberal London, where he has spent his adult life, and the conservative Home Counties, where he grew up. Ironically for a man whose Euroscepticism has irked Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, he may at heart be what continental Europeans would recognise as a Christian Democrat. He espouses a social conservatism that dwells on broad issues, such as the cultural causes of poverty, not on the narrow lifestyle questions such as gay rights (on which he is anyway tolerant) that obsess some on the American right. He is an Atlanticist, though not a passionate one, and a gentle free-marketeer.

那些希望从卡梅伦身上找到高见的人可能要失望了。因为对那些宏大的理论,他一直持典型的英式怀疑态度。他的个性来源于其度过成人时光的自由伦敦和从小长大的保守的伦敦周围的郡县之中。讽刺的是,德国总理安格拉·默克尔一直由于他的欧洲怀疑主义思想而苦恼,欧洲大陆人认为他在本质上是一名基督教社会主义党派党员。他所信奉的社会保守主义思想集中体现在一些宽泛的议题(如贫困的文化原因),而不是局限于生活方式一类较狭窄的问题,如困扰很多一些美国右派人士的同性恋权利,无论如何,他对此是很容忍的。他是一个大西洋主义者,尽管不是那么激情四射,同时他还是一个温和的自由市场主义者。


He does, however, have a distinctive analysis of his own country. British society, so his critique goes, is broken. The cause is the erosion of responsibility (his favourite word) by a hyperactive state. He is at his most animated when justifying his (arguably overstated) social pessimism, pointing to “our records against the rest of Europe on things like teenage pregnancy and drug abuse, alcohol, family worklessness, educational problems”. The analysis is open to criticism: the societies he sees as unbroken, including many in continental Europe, spend more on welfare than he would want to or can afford to.

不过对自己的国家,卡梅伦有着与众不同的分析。根据他的独特见解,英国社会现在已经破裂。他认为原因在于过度活跃的政府造成责任的缺失。当为证明他的(可能夸大的)社会悲观主义合理性的时候,卡梅伦指出“我们与欧洲其他国家在青少年怀孕、毒品滥用、酒精以及家庭失业和教育问题上的记录大为不同”的时候尤为兴奋。当然他乐于接受对分析的批评:他所认为的完整社会,包括欧洲大陆的许多国家,在社会福利上支出大大超出他所期望的和能负担的。


The cure, he says, is giving power away, strengthening local government and empowering people directly by, for example, letting them set up their own schools. He is undogmatic about the precise size of the state, deploring instead its over-centralisation; he prefers a big society to a big state. It remains to be seen whether that will bring relief to the overburdened public finances.

他说,解决问题的方法是放权,强化地方政府权力和直接赋予人民权力,比如让他们建立自己的学校。他对于政府的具体规模没有特别的要求,但是强烈反对过度中央集权;相比一个大政府,他更喜欢一个大社会。当然,这是否能缓解负担过重的公共财政,仍有待于观察。

As the election nears, the Labour government is seeking to make much of its own (not unblemished) experience in economic management, tarring the Tory opposition as obstructive novices. George Osborne, the shadow chancellor of the exchequer, is a favourite target. Mr Cameron sticks up for Mr Osborne’s performance during the financial crisis, inviting opponents to “push as hard as [they] can”. The Tories supported the bank bail-out in 2008, he notes. Their opposition to the fiscal stimulus may have been attacked by some economists, but others agree that it “added £12.5 billion ($18.9 billion) to our debt without making a noticeable difference to the economy”.

随着大选临近,工党政府试图利用其(并非完美的)经济管理经验,抹黑反对党保守党,称其为碍事的经济管理菜鸟。保守党影子财政大臣乔治·奥斯本就成为受攻击最多的目标。卡梅伦支持奥斯本在金融危机中的表现,他“邀请”反对者“尽他们最大能耐来抹黑奥斯本”。他指出,保守党曾支持2008年对银行的救助。当然,他们反对财政刺激政策的立场可能受到一些经济学家的攻击,而另外一些经济学家则同意他们的看法,认为刺激计划除了给英国增加125亿英镑(合189亿美元)的债务之外,对经济没有明显的作用。


In a contest that he insists is a choice between the two main parties rather than a referendum on his alone, he has been clearer for longer about the fiscal squeeze required than Mr Brown. “Give me the equivalent of our asking people to retire a year later from 2016,” he says; at the party conference in October Mr Osborne was commendably ahead of the pack in outlining some specific measures to reduce the fiscal deficit. And Labour has been forced to face reality as a result. “You don’t hear investment versus cuts any more,” Mr Cameron says, referring to Labour’s favourite dividing line in elections past.

卡梅伦坚决要求来一场竞争是让选民在两大主要政党之间的选择,而不是对于他的政党进行全民公投。他一直比布朗更清楚财政紧缩的重要性。他说:“给我从2016年起要求民众晚一年退休的对等物”;在去年10月份的保守党大会上奥斯本就领先一步提出一些削减赤字的具体措施。因此,工党将被迫面对现实。卡梅伦说:“你们再也听不见投资vs削减赤字的竞选口号了。”而这是以前工党在选战中喜欢使用来划分与保守党的界限的。

Nor, as the polls narrow, do you hear much detail these days about Tory plans to get a fiscal grip. Mr Osborne’s pledge partly to reverse the government’s planned increase in national-insurance (NI) contributions, announced this week, will be funded by cutting waste, a familiar theme on both sides of the aisle. This may be “doable and deliverable”, as Mr Cameron claims, but he will not say precisely how.

随着大选的迫近,你听不到关于保守党财政紧缩方面的具体细节了。奥斯本本周宣布其承诺,将通过减少浪费来提供资金,从而在一定程度上扭转政府此前计划的增加国民保险税的局面。两党似乎在这方面意见一致。卡梅伦宣称,该方案是可行,但是他没有说具体怎样实现。

The sting in the Falklands tale
福克兰群岛之争

Mr Cameron once called himself the “heir to Blair”. Where he least resembles the former prime minister is on foreign affairs, to which he brings case-by-case policies rather than informing ideals. Mr Blair was both Britain’s most Atlanticist and most Europhile prime minister; Mr Cameron is likely to be less of either.

卡梅伦一度称自己为布莱尔的继承人。他与这位前首相最大的不同的是外交政策上。在处理外交事务方面,卡梅伦喜欢具体问题具体分析而不是宣扬其理想。布莱尔是英国最铁杆的大西洋主义者和最亲欧盟的首相;而卡梅伦则在与欧美的关系上比较折中。


Is there a special relationship with America? Yes, he says: “On any number of issues you see Britain and America working closer than with other allies.” But he points out that “you have to remember we are the junior partner. I think part of getting the relationship right is understanding how best to play the role.”

英美之间是否有特殊的关系?是的,他回答说:“在任何议题上,你会发现英国和美国之间关系的亲密程度超过其他盟国”。但是,他指出:“你必须记住两国之间是初级伙伴关系,我认为使两国关系向好的方面发展的方法就是明白怎么样才能最好的扮演自己的角色。

He is “happier than [he] was” with the way the war in Afghanistan is being fought, but “we are still in the situation where British troops are in charge of two-thirds of the population [in Helmand] but there are only 10,000 of us and 20,000 Americans.” There is muted praise for Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president: “At his best, he can do good things.”

卡梅伦对于阿富汗战争目前的情况表示”比之前更为开心“,但是“英国军队仍在负责管理赫尔曼德省三分之为以上的人口,但是在此区域,英国军队仅仅只有一万人,而美国军队则多达两万人。”对于阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊,他表扬到;“他(卡尔扎伊)很出色,他能处理好事情。”

What Mr Cameron is not happy with is America’s recent implication that Britain should negotiate with Argentina over the Falkland Islands. “I’ve always said the special relationship should be a frank and a candid one, and I think you should frankly and candidly say we’re disappointed.”

美国最近暗示,英国应该与阿根廷就福克兰群岛问题展开谈判,卡梅伦对此感到颇为不快。“我经常说英美两国之间特殊的关系是坦诚和直率的,但是我认为你应该诚恳地对我说,你们很失望,”他说。

His view of Europe, too, is more nuanced than some might expect. He has been (rightly) criticised for pulling his party out of the centre-right grouping in the European Parliament to which the parties of Mrs Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, belong, and for cultivating the Euroscepticism of his party faithful. But he is a broadly restraining influence on it and, with so much to do at home, he will hardly relish fights with Brussels. “I think people in Europe will be pleasantly surprised that we will be activist and engaged from day one,” he says. “But we have a very clear view about the direction we ought to go in.” He wants to win op-outs from the European Union’s social chapter and charter of fundamental rights. Few fancy his chances.

他对于欧洲的看法,也比一些人所预测的更为微妙。一直以来,由于把保守党拉出了欧洲议会的中右翼集团,以及培育保守党信奉的欧盟怀疑主义思想,卡梅伦受到不少批评,德国总理默克尔和法国总统萨科奇所在的政党都属于这一集团。但是,他在这方面一直起到广泛的抑制作用。由于国内事务很多要处理,他几乎不可能喜欢与布鲁塞尔(欧盟)争斗。“我认为人们会惊喜地发现,我们会(保守党)会成为激进分子,从一开始就开始忙碌。”他说:“但是我们对未来的应该发展的方向都有比较清晰的认识。”卡梅隆想退出欧洲社会宪章和欧洲基本权利宪章。但是几乎很少有人认为他能成功。


And what of his chances in the general election expected next month? The 17-point poll leads the Tories enjoyed last year have faded to margins less than half that size. The decline in the Tories’ popularity in recent months continues to puzzle, with some putting it down to a message that is too bleakly austere and others blaming it on something close to the opposite: a lack of Thatcherite punch and clarity.

那么卡梅伦在下个月的大选中胜出的可能性有多大呢?去年的民意测验中保守党领先工党17个百分点,但是目前领先的幅度还不到原来的一半。近几个月来保守党的支持率一直在下降,一些选民认为保守党过于严厉,另外一些人恰恰相反指责其缺乏撒切尔式的铁腕和清晰的主张。

In fact it probably owes more to the recent economic recovery, which seems strong enough to vindicate the government’s handling of the recession but not so strong that a change of management can be risked safely. Labour’s poll rating has increased by more than the Conservatives’ has fallen. And the crisis has challenged the opposition as well as the government. After rebranding themselves as a party that could see beyond the market to social and environmental concerns, the Tories have had to re-rebrand themselves as sober stewards of a ruined economy. “I don’t feel too shocked by the tightening of the polls becauseI’ve always believed it’s a very big mountain we have to climb,” says Mr Cameron.

实际上,这(民调)或许更多地与近来的经济复苏关系更大。经济的复苏足以证明(工党)政府在经济危机处理方面有一定能力,但并不足以能改变其管理。工党的民调上升速度快于保守党下降的幅度,表现出目前的经济危机既对反对党又对政府提出挑战。把自己重塑成能从市场预见到社会和环境问题,保守党把自己定位于一个被破坏的经济体中清醒的管理者。“对于形势日益严峻的民意调查,我没有感到震惊,因为我一直认为这是一座我们必须翻越的大山,”卡梅伦如是说。


The anti-politics mood unleashed by last year’s parliamentary-expenses scandal also makes it hard for any politician, however appealing, to electrify the public. The country’s propensity to fall for a leader the way it did in 1997 is no longer there. Being preferred to your opponents—which the Tories still are in every poll—may be the best any politician can aim for. “Labour would like nothing more than just to talk about the Conservatives and run away from their record,” says Mr Cameron. “We’re not going to let them do that.”

去年的议员骗补门事件引发的反政治情绪使得任何一个政治家在公众中具有感召力。1997年英国呈现出的对政治领袖的个人崇拜的倾向已经不再。使民调结果好于对手,也许是任何一个政客最佳目标,保守党目前就做到了这一点。卡梅伦说:“工党只会攻击保守党而对自己的拙劣表现只字不提,我们不会让他们得逞。”
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则



诚聘英才|移动端|Archiver|版权声明|大家论坛 ( 京ICP备06071611号,京公网安备11010802018363号 )

GMT+8, 2019-11-16 05:34 , Processed in 0.124252 second(s), 7 queries , Redis On.

Powered by Discuz!

© Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表