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[经济学人] [2009.10.22] To the rigger the spoils 舞弊者获利

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发表于 2010-4-29 01:49 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Dirty elections
肮脏的大选

To the rigger the spoils
舞弊者获利


Oct 22nd 2009
From The Economist print edition


New research on how many countries rig elections and why
关于众多国家选举舞弊的最近报道

HAMID KARZAI’S acceptance this week, through gritted teeth, of a run-off in Afghanistan’s presidential poll is a reminder both of how common rigged elections have become, and of how rarely incumbents fail to get away with it. Think, in the past two years, of Iran, Russia, Zimbabwe and Kenya—and those are just places that made the news. With two exceptions (Middle Eastern autocracies and East Asian communists), almost all countries now hold nationwide polls. And, according to Freedom House, an American NGO, an increasing number are unfree.

本星期,哈米德.卡尔扎伊被迫接受进行第二轮竞选,由此可以看出选举舞弊已变得如此之平常了,几乎没有几个政客可以避免。在过去的两年中,伊朗、俄罗斯、津巴布韦和肯尼亚都出现了类似舞弊丑闻。除了中东的独裁政权和东亚的共产党,几乎其他所有国家都举行大选。美国一个公益性组织----自由之家称各国大选舞弊大有增长之势。


Faced with vast quantities of empirical evidence, economists like to run cross-country comparisons and regressions. So far, political scientists have done less of this sort of thing—so the more reason to welcome an attempt by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, two Oxford academics,* to organise the political material into a usable database of 786 elections (clean and dirty) from 155 countries in 1975-2004 and to draw conclusions, striking and otherwise.

面对众多国家大量的实证证据,经济学家们进行了比较和回归分析。两位牛津的学者Paul Collier 和Anke Hoeffler将1975至2004年间155个国家的786次选举(公正的选举)的政治材料整理建立成数据库,所得结论引人注目。而目前政界学者对此的研究还颇少。


In the obvious category: rigged elections work for the rigger. Incumbents running in clean elections average six and a bit years in office; in rigged votes, 16 years. “Well, duh,” says Duncan Green, head of research at Oxfam, a British charity. Fair enough, it is obvious—but ten extra years may be more than expected.

选举舞弊的受益者是舞弊者,这点无需置疑。公正选举中产生的当权者平均在任时间是6年多,而舞弊选举出的当权者平均在任16年之多。“废话!”邓肯.格林说,他是英国慈善组织---牛津饥荒救济委员会的研究组长。公平与否已显而易见,但在任时间竟延长了十年却让人意外。


Strikingly, the authors contend that “dirty elections are bad for economic growth by skewing politicians’ incentives.” This is because, they find, good economic performance makes a huge difference to an incumbent’s chance of re-election whether the vote is free or rigged, adding about three years’ to his or her tenure. Although economic success wins rewards in both systems, in clean ones, it adds 40% to a president’s time, whereas in dirty ones, the rewards of growth are swamped by those of rigging, which more than doubles the time in power. So rigging makes the economy less important to a president’s future—a rejoinder to the Chinese claim that in developing countries “managed democracy” is better for growth than an electoral free-for-all.

研究者义正言辞地称“当权舞弊政客不正当的激励对经济增长影响极坏。”研究发现,这是因为无论选举公平与否,良好的经济形势对二次竞选中的赢家都有很大的帮助,其任期可延长三年左右。尽管两种选举体制下的良好经济都能继续维持,公平选举下的总统任期可延长40%,肮脏选举下的经济增长部分因舞弊行为的影响而无效,但总统任期可延长一倍。所以可见,舞弊使得总统的未来比经济更重要,中国政府也对此声称在发展中国家“受管理的民主”与自由选举相比带来的经济效益更大。


Obviously, not all developing countries rig the polls. Big nations seem less likely to rig than small ones—perhaps because they have more competing interest groups, making it harder to fake credibility by staging a poll win. Large government revenues from raw-material taxes makes rigging more likely by increasing incentives to get your hands on all that money. A few things make rigging less likely: term limits, the independence of the courts, parliament or press. And aid makes almost no difference. Even if outsiders are keeping the entire country afloat, their influence is patchy. As Mr Karzai earlier showed.

显然,不是所有的发展中国家都存在选举舞弊。大国比小国更不容易出现选举舞弊----也许是因为大国存在更多的相互竞争的利益集团,使得在大选中制造假象博得大众相信难上加难。原料税是大国政府的主要收入来源,这笔款项足以让人垂涎而导致舞弊行为。还有一些因素能降低选举舞弊的可能性:任期限制,司法机关、议会或媒体独立。即使外援可使全国事务顺利行进着,从卡尔扎伊之前的行为可以看出,外国的援助对选举舞弊毫无作用。
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:24 | 显示全部楼层
第一段这层意思似乎没有译出——through gritted teeth
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:59 | 显示全部楼层
被迫,来源于那词组~~~
谢谢~~
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