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[经济学人] [2009.6.18] Not just straw men 不做稻草人

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发表于 2010-4-29 00:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Jun 18th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The biggest emerging economies are rebounding, even without recovery in the West
虽然西方的经济还没有恢复,世界上最大的新兴经济体们开始反弹


EPA



THE inaugural summit of the BRICs—Brazil, Russia, India, China—came and went in Yekaterinburg this week with more rhetoric than substance. Although Russia’s president, Dmitry Medvedev, called it “the epicentre of world politics”, this disparate quartet signally failed to rival the Group of Eight industrial countries as a forum for economic discussion.
这周在叶卡捷琳堡举行了金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)峰会的开幕式,实质性进展太少,慷慨激昂的话语太多。尽管俄国总统梅德韦杰夫将这一峰会称为“世界政治的震中”,但很明显,这个松散的四国组织未能与发达国家的G8八国集团经济讨论峰会匹敌。

But that should be no surprise: to realise how disparate they are, consider that Russia and Brazil are big commodity exporters, whereas China is a big commodity importer; China is a proponent of the Doha trade round, India a sceptic; India and China vie for influence in the Indian Ocean, Russia and China compete in Central Asia.
但这一点也不令人感到惊奇,要想知道这四国存在多大的差异,那就好好考虑一下吧:俄罗斯和巴西都是最大的日用品出口国,而中国是最大的日用品进口国;中国支持多哈贸易回合,而印度对这一回合持怀疑态度;印度与中国争夺在印度洋的影响力,而俄罗斯与中国争夺在中亚的影响力。

Instead, the really striking thing is that four countries first lumped together as a group by the chief economist of Goldman Sachs chose to convene at all, and in such a high-profile way. And that when they met, they discussed topics such as reforming the IMF; their demand for more say in global policy-making; and, in the case of China, Brazil and Russia, a plan to switch some of their foreign-currency reserves out of dollars and into IMF bonds.
相反,这次峰会最引人注目的地方就是,这四个国家第一次被聚在一起是因为最大的金融公司高盛集团,而这四个国家却以如此高调姿态参加了这一峰会。当这四国的领导人会面后,他们讨论的话题包括改革世界货币基金组织IMF;要求在全球政策制定方面拥有更多发言权;中国、巴西和俄罗斯计划将它们的部分外汇储备从美元转为国际货币基金组织债券。

All this reflects growing self-confidence. The largest emerging markets are recovering fast and starting to think the recession may mark another milestone in a worldwide shift of economic power away from the West. Estimates for their national incomes in the first quarter were better than expected. In the year to the end of March GDP rose by around 6% in China and India. The two accounted for no less than half the world’s increase in wireless-technology subscriptions in that period. In Brazil GDP fell slightly in the first quarter but it is growing faster than the Latin American average and most economists think growth will return to its pre-crisis level as early as next year. In contrast, output in most large industrial economies is still falling. The exception in the BRICs is the host: dragged down by plunging oil prices last year, Russia’s economy shrank by 9.5% in the first quarter, the worst performance in the G20 after Japan.
这都显示出了不断稳固的信心。这些最大的新型经济体恢复迅速,并开始认为这次经济大萧条可能会标志着全球范围的经济实力从西方转移。这些国家第一季度的收入比预期的要好。截止到今年三月,中国和印度的国内生产总值GDP增长约6%。在这一阶段,这两国的无线电技术的订单至少占全球新订单的一半以上。巴西的GDP增长速度在第一季度略有下降,但其增长速度超过了拉美国家的平均水平,而且大多数经济学家认为,巴西的GDP增长速度最早将在明年恢复到经济危机之前的水平。相比之下,多数发达国家的生产总值增长速度仍在下滑。金砖四国的一个例外就是它们的东道国:俄罗斯的经济由于去年的油价下跌在第一季度缩水了9.5%,在二十国峰会中其表现之差仅次于日本。

The fortunes of the others mark a sharp rebound since the turn of the year. Then, it seemed, the largest emerging markets faced being overwhelmed along with everyone else. Chinese exports in January were 18% lower than they had been a year earlier. Industrial growth fell by two-thirds in November and December. And around 20m migrant workers were wending their way back to their villages, jobless after the collapse of construction and export booms in coastal cities. The notion of “decoupling”—that emerging markets were no longer mere moons revolving around planet West—suffered a severe setback.
其他三国的时运自年初以来急速好转。当时几个最大的新兴市场似乎面临着随其他各经济体一同衰退的厄运。一月份中国出口同比下跌了18%。去年最后两月的工业增幅同比下跌了2/3。大约2000万民工由于各沿海城市建筑业繁荣和出口热潮的戛然而止而纷纷失业,不得不踏上了返乡之路。“脱钩”这一概念——即新兴市场不再只是围绕着西方世界这颗行星运行的卫星——遭受了严重的挫折。

So what should one make of the turnaround? Might there be something to decoupling after all? Why are the BRICs recovering? And what are the implications for the rest of the world?
那么应该如何理解这一逆转呢?究竟“脱钩”或许是否真的有点道理呢?金砖四国为何正在复苏呢?这又将对世界其他各国产生怎样的影响呢?

Decoupling means not simply that emerging markets tend to grow faster than rich industrial ones, although that is certainly true; it also implies that to some extent the two groups dance to different tunes, with emerging markets growing or shrinking autonomously, not just under the influence of rich ones. A study last year by Ayhan Kose of the IMF, Christopher Otrok of the University of Virginia and Eswar Prasad of Cornell University gave some support to this idea.
脱钩不单纯地意味着新兴市场会比富裕的发达国家市场增长迅速,尽管事实确实如此;在某种层面上,这也意味着这两个集团跳着不同的曲子,新兴市场独立地增长会是萎缩,而不受富裕经济市场的影响。去年,世界货币基金组织的寇斯、弗吉尼亚大学的奥戳可和康奈尔大学的普拉萨德的一项研究支持了这一观点。

You would expect less decoupling as a result of globalisation. The cycles of output, consumption and investment should become more closely aligned in countries engaged in world trade. Yet when the authors looked at these indicators, they found something different. The cycles of output, consumption and investment did indeed become more closely aligned in rich countries. And the same thing happened in emerging markets. But when the authors compared the two groups, they found they were diverging. The business cycles of America and Europe converged. The business cycles of India and China converged. The business cycles of rich and emerging markets had decoupled.
作为全球化的结果,你可能不太能想象到脱钩。生产、消费和投资的循环应该与参与世界贸易的国家联系得更为紧密,但当这些作者查看一些指标时,他们发现了一些不同之处。生产、消费和投资的循环确实在富裕国家联系紧密,而且同样的事情也发生在新兴市场上。但当作者们将两组国家进行比较时,他们发现者两组国家正在分化。美国和欧洲的商业循环发生了转变。印度和中国的商业循化发生了转变。富裕国家和新兴市场的商业循环已经脱节。

When this study came out in mid-2008 the worldwide crash seemed to render it instantly obsolete. Yet the sheer size of the meltdown may temporarily have swamped deeper trends that are now reasserting themselves as the initial shock recedes. In 2000 developing countries accounted for 37% of world output (at purchasing power parities). Last year their share rose to 45%. The share of the BRICs leapt from 16% to 22%, a sharp rise in such a short period. Almost 60% of all the increase in world output that occurred in 2000-08 happened in developing countries; half of it took place in the BRICs alone (see chart).
当这份研究于2008年年中出版的时候,然而它在世界范围的经济崩盘面前似乎即刻过时了。然而更深层的趋势似乎只是被经济垮塌的庞大规模暂时掩盖了,现在却随着原先的冲击逐渐缓和而再次抬头。2000年时,发展中国家只占全世界经济产出的37%(以消费力平价计算)。去年这一比例上升到了45%。金砖四国所占的份额则从16%上升到22%,这在如此短的时间里绝对算得上是飙升。2000-08年间世界经济产生的总增量中几乎有60%都归功于发展中国家,这60%中光是金砖四国就占了一半(见图表)。



If this pattern of growth were resuming, it would be good news: nearly half the world economy would be bouncing back. And there are one or two signs that the benefits of growth in the BRICs are being felt farther afield. Anecdotal evidence suggests “south-south” trade and investment by richer emerging markets in poorer ones continued to rise even as global capital and trade flows fell. One example of this is the “land grab” in which China and Gulf countries are buying millions of acres of farmland in Africa and South-East Asia. China overtook America to become Brazil’s largest export market in March and April; it is also now the largest exporter to India. China is using its $2 trillion of foreign reserves to invest in other emerging markets: for example, putting $10 billion into Petrobras, Brazil’s state-run oil company.
如果这种样式的增长能够继续,这将是个好消息:几乎世界上经济总量的一半将会反弹。一两个迹象表明金砖四国的增长在离他们较远的地方也可以感到。轶事证据表明即使在全球资本和贸易流下降的时候,“南南”贸易以及相对富裕的新兴市场对贫穷市场的投资继续增加。例如,中国和海湾国家正在非洲和东南亚购买上百万公顷的土地,这就是所谓的“占地”。今年3、4月份中国取代美国成为巴西的最大出口市场;中国目前也是印度的出口国。中国眼下正利用它的2万亿元外汇储备对其它的新兴市场进行投资:例如,向巴西的国有石油公司巴西国际石油公司注资100亿美元。

China’s appetite for raw materials to fuel resurgent growth probably explains the 36% rise in industrial raw-material prices since the start of this year, benefiting exporters of things like copper—though how long this will last is an open question. If it comes from the boom in Chinese investment spending, then the boom could continue. If China is merely filling its stores temporarily after a period of destocking, then prices could fall again.
中国需要原材料来资助经济复苏,中国对原材料的胃口,大概解释了为什么工业原材料的价格自年初上涨了36%,这使铜等原材料的出口国从中受益,但这一价格能坚持多久,尚无答案。如果这一价格上涨是源于中国投资的蓬勃发展,难么这一价格将会持续。但如果这只是在库存用光后暂时性地填充储备,那么这一价格会再次下滑。

But the resilience of China, India and Brazil cannot offset the dire state of the rest of the world economy. While the three giants recover, developing countries as a whole are mired in recession. The giants seem to be decoupling not only from the West but from many of their smaller emerging brethren, too.
但是中国、印度和巴西的反弹不能抵消世界其他经济体的可怕状态。虽然这三个发展中大国经济正在恢复,但发展中国家整体上仍陷在经济萧条的泥淖之中,裹足不前。这几个大国似乎要分崩离析,这不只是与西方国家,而且还有它们新兴市场同胞们。

A series of reports confirms how badly things are going there. A review of ten poor countries by the Overseas Development Institute, a think-tank in London, concludes that they were worse hit than anyone expected, with sharp declines in remittances, employment and revenues and widespread balance-of-payments problems. As the study’s author, Dirk Willem te Velde, points out, the differences are often striking. In some countries—Indonesia, Kenya, Bangladesh—foreign direct investment has held up reasonably well; others—Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia—are facing sharp declines. Cambodian textile exports have been hit harder than Bangladeshi ones. But because import demand, capital flows and the need for foreign workers declined precipitously in the West, almost all developing countries are suffering.
一系列的报告都表明了那些国家处境糟糕。伦敦的智库海外发展研究中心,指出这些国家受到的打击比任何人所想的都要严重,它们正面临着汇款、就业和收入急剧下降的问题以及大范围的收支平衡问题。该报告的作者Dirk Willem te Velde指出这些国家与那三个大国处境的不同是十分明显的。印尼、肯尼亚和孟加拉等国投资十分充裕;而加纳、尼日利亚和津巴布韦等其它国家正在面临着投资的急剧下降。在纺织品出口上柬埔寨受到的冲击比孟加拉严重。但由于西方的进口需求、资金流动和外国员工的需求大幅度下降,几乎所有发展中国家都在受挫。

In its most recent assessment, the United Nations says at least 60 poor and emerging markets will this year suffer falls in income per person. The UN’s forecasts for eastern Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are especially dark. For eastern Europe, Russia and its neighbours, the body predicts a fall in output of 5%. Arvind Subramanian, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank in Washington, DC, argues that the recession in eastern Europe sounds the death knell for one of the two main growth strategies of the past 20 years—capital-account liberalisation (growth through exports is the other). The east European countries threw their financial sectors open to the world. In 11 of the region’s countries, foreign banks account for over 60% of bank assets. The flood of foreign-currency borrowing destabilised their economies and left them vulnerable when Western banks reduced lending.
该研究所最近的一份报告表明,至少有60个贫穷国家和新兴市场今年的个人收入将降低。联合国预计东欧和非洲南撒哈拉地区处境将尤其艰难。这一研究所预测俄国及其邻国等东欧国家的生产将下降5%。彼得森国际经济学研究所是一家地处华盛顿的智库。该所的经济学家Arvind Subramanian称东欧的经济萧条为过去20年间的两大经济增长策略其一敲响了丧钟。这一经济策略就是依靠自由资本的经济策略,另一策略是出口型经济增长。东欧国家开放了它们的金融市场。在该区域的11个国家中,外资银行占银行总资产的比例超过了60%。当西方银行减少贷款时,大量的外汇外借使这些经济体不稳定,也使它们脆弱不堪。

In Africa, the UN predicts, output will now fall by 0.9%. That might not sound too bad but only two months ago the IMF was forecasting a rise of 1.7% and at the start of the year the UN had projected a 4.8% increase. To return to pre-crisis growth, says the African Development Bank (AFDB), would require the continent to attract $50 billion of new money this year. Africa is nowhere near those levels because world capital flows are falling. The latest forecast by the Institute of International Finance says total net flows will collapse from $890 billion in 2007 to just $141 billion this year.
联合国现在预测非洲的经济产值将萎缩0.9%。这听起来不算太坏但是仅仅二个月前国际货币基金组织还预测1.7%的增长,而年初联合国的预测是增长4.8%。非洲发展银行认为,若要恢复到危机前的增长水平,非洲今年须吸引500亿美元的新投资。但现在还远远够不到这个水平,因为全球资本流动正在减少。国际金融研究所的最新预计是全球净资本流动总量将从2007年的8900亿美元大幅减少到今年的1410亿美元。

The AFDB fears that “a growth crisis” may be turning into a “development crisis”, leading to sharp increases in poverty and malnutrition. By the end of 2009, says the UN, there will be between 105m and 143m more people in poverty than if growth had continued at its pre-crisis levels (see article). The main exception is in smaller East Asian countries, where industrial output is rebounding and GDP growth is likely to resume in the second quarter.
非洲发展银行AFDB担心“经济增长危机”可能会转化为“发展危机”,这将导致贫穷和营养不良的人口大幅度增加。联合国表示,截止至2009年,如果经济增长继续保持经济危机发生之前的水平,将有超过1亿500万到1亿4千3百万贫困人口。最主要的例外国家就是小一些的东亚国家,这些给国家的经济增长反弹,而且国民经济生产总值将在第二季度重新增长。

At the moment, then, recovery in the BRICs is coinciding with recession in the developing world as a whole. If this does not point to any change in global economic conditions, what does it reflect?
与金砖四国眼下的复苏对应的,是发展中国家总体的衰退。如果这不代表全球经济状况发生了任何改变的话,那么它究竟反映了什么呢?

Partly, that the BRICs depend less on exports than do many emerging markets. In Brazil and India exports are less than 15% of GDP. China, too, exports less than many people think. Though exports were 34% of GDP in 2008, these included “processing exports”—goods imported into China, processed and exported without much value having been added. All three were thus less affected by the slowdown in world trade than most.
它部分反映了金砖四国对出口的依赖度比许多新兴市场都要低。巴西和印度的出口占其GDP的不到15%。中国的出口也比许多人认为的少。尽管2008年中国出口占GDP的34%,但这些出口中包括“加工出口”——即那些进口到中国、加工后出口、并在此过程中仅添加少量附加值的商品。因此,全球贸易萎缩对这三个国家的影响比大多数国家都要小。

The BRICs were cautious in liberalising their financial systems, so have been less affected than, say, eastern Europe, by the West’s financial heart attack. And their recoveries have been boosted by governments which have dramatically loosened monetary policy and increased government spending. But many other countries are relatively closed to trade and finance. Smaller ones like Chile and Taiwan have had a large fiscal stimulus. But few have done so well. Something more is needed to explain the recovery of the giants. A plausible explanation is size.
金砖四国对金融系统自由化都保持谨慎,因此西方金融系统“心脏病”对它们的影响小于,比如说,东欧。而金砖四国的经济复苏又得到了政府的支持——政府不仅大幅放宽货币政策,还增加政府开支。但是许多其他国家的贸易和金融还相对闭塞。像智利和台湾这样规模较小的经济体有大量财政盈余,但是很少有国家能表现如此优异。需要找到其他东西来解释这些经济巨人的复苏。一个较为可信的解释就是规模。

Size matters when world trade is falling because large economies have millions of domestic consumers to turn to when foreign markets fail. China is the best example. Small economies need trade to specialise, but the pressure of selling into a big domestic market helps companies in large economies remain competitive even without a lot of competition from imports. Big economies also tend to be diversified. India, for example, exports not just garments and cheap electronics—characteristic of many countries with similar levels of income per head—but ships, petrochemicals, steel and business services. Being diversified means little when markets all fail at once. But it is a big advantage when recovery begins since you are more likely to be in a business in which demand is rising.
当世界贸易萎缩的时候,经济规模的重要性就显现出来。这是因为大型经济体能够在海外市场需求不旺的情况下转而依靠成百上千万的国内消费者。中国就是最好的例子。小型经济体需要贸易变得专业化,而开拓庞大的国内市场的压力帮助大型经济体的企业即便在缺少进口商品竞争的情况下也能保持竞争力。大型经济体的经济往往是多样化的。例如印度不仅出口服装和廉价电子产品——这是人均收入水平与印度相似的国家典型的出口产品——它还出口船舶、石油化工产品、钢铁和商业服务。尽管经济多样化在各个市场同时崩溃的情况下没有意义,但是当经济开始复苏时,它就成了一个巨大的优势,因为你从事的产业中更有可能包括需求上升的产业。

Size and variety may also help the economic stimulus programmes of China, India and Brazil. In general, one of the commonest problems of government reflation is that the benefits leak out beyond your borders because the programme sucks in imports. Giant economies do not face this problem so acutely because even when trade has been liberalised, imports naturally tend to be a lower share of GDP.
经济规模和经济多样性或许也帮助了中国、印度和巴西的经济刺激计划。总的来说,政府通货再膨胀政策所面临的最常见问题是通过进口而导致该政策产生的福利流失到国外。大型经济体受这个问题的影响较小,因为即使在贸易自由化之后,进口占GDP的比例往往仍然较低。

The other challenge is to ensure that government stimulus programmes are broadly based. This could be more difficult in small economies which specialise in relatively fewer sectors. A handful of big companies may be able to use political clout to grab the benefits of spending for themselves. In principle, giant countries such as India or China have more companies competing to manipulate the government for a share of the spoils. That is speculation, but the fact is that the stimulus programmes in the big emerging markets have been, mostly, large and effective.
另一个挑战在于保证政府的经济刺激计划有广泛的基础。这对于那些专攻范围相对较窄的若干个产业的小型经济体来说难度更大。若干大公司或许能够利用政治影响力为自己从政府支出中获利。原则上来说,在中国和印度这样的大国中,有更多的企业相互竞争企图操纵政府从而分得一杯羹。这仅仅是猜测,然而事实是大型新兴市场国家的经济刺激项目大多数都规模庞大而且卓有成效。

China’s stimulus package was the earliest and best-known example of fiscal shock and awe. But it is only part of the story. The government is using the state-owned banks to pump out loans at astonishing rates. According to Josh Felman, of the IMF’s Asia research department, state banks and others issued 5.5 trillion yuan ($800 billion) of new loans in the first quarter—more than in the whole of 2008. This is producing a spending splurge on steroids. Excluding SUVs, almost as many cars are being sold in China as in America. In 2006 Americans bought twice as many.
中国的一揽子经济刺激计划实施得最早,也是最广为人知的。但这只是一部分。中国政府正在利用国有银行以惊人的速度发放贷款。据世界货币基金组织亚洲研究部的费尔曼所说,国有及非国有银行在今年第一季度共发放贷款5.5万亿美元合8000亿元人民币,而这比2008年全年贷款还要多。这也导致了类固醇的大幅上涨。除了suv以外,中国的汽车销量与美国相同,而2006年时美国人的汽车购买量是中国的两倍。

Brazil and India are following suit, albeit more modestly. Brazil reduced reserve requirements and gave banks and its deposit-insurance fund incentives to buy up the loan portfolios of smaller banks. These measures injected 135 billion reais ($69 billion) into the domestic credit markets, according to Otaviano Canuto of the World Bank. Domestic credit rose sharply between September 2008 and January 2009 and consumer confidence is rebounding.
巴西和印度也仿效中国的做法,但刺激力度稍小。巴西降低了银行储备金要求并且为其鼓励 银行和存款保险基金收购小型银行的贷款资产组合。世界银行的Otaviano Canuto认为这些举措向国内信贷市场注入了1350亿雷亚尔(约合690亿美元)的资金。2008年9月到2009年1月间,巴西国内的信贷急剧增长,消费者信心亦正在反弹。

The source of India’s resilience, argues Mr Subramanian, was “goldilocks globalisation”: neither too dependent on foreign capital, like eastern Europe, nor too reliant on foreign customers, like parts of East Asia. Foreign capital dried up in the crisis, so India relied on domestic savings, which amounted to almost 38% of GDP in the year to March 2008. Companies thus turned for loans to India’s unfashionable state banks, which hold almost 70% of bank assets, rather than borrowing overseas or raising money on the stockmarket.
Subramanian先生说,印度的反弹是“中庸式全球化”,印度既不像东欧那样依靠海外资金,也不像东亚的一些国家那样极为依赖海外顾客。在这次经济危机中,海外资本已消耗殆尽,所以印度依靠国内储蓄,这一储蓄占国内生产总值GDP的比重曾在3月份时几乎到达38%。因此,公司们都向印度的不够新潮的国有银行申请贷款而不是从海外借钱或是在股市筹集资金,因为这些银行占银行总资产的70%。

India’s growth was also shored up by government outlays, such as a generous pay rise for state employees, the cancellation of small farmers’ debts, and the expansion of its rural-workfare scheme. Announced before the crisis struck, this spending was fortuitous. It left the public finances deep in the red, even as it helped the government to a decisive election victory. So far, this political triumph has boosted confidence in India more than the budget deficit has dampened it.
政府支出也支持了印度的经济增长,例如印度大幅提升了国有企业员工的工资,赦免了小农债务,扩张了农村劳动力计划。印度政府曾在经济危机前宣布这一支出只是巧合,它使得印度的公共金融一片红火,它甚至帮助政府赢得了决定性的选举胜利。到目前为止,这一政治辉煌不仅缓和了财政赤字还提升了印度人民的信心。

State of triumph
辉煌之状
The question is whether such splurges are efficient and how long can they last. Consider China’s investment (see article). According to the IMF’s Mr Felman, in early 2008 all the contribution of investment to growth came from non-state-owned enterprises, mostly the private sector; since December 2008, more than half has come from state-owned enterprises. Something similar is happening in Brazil. Between last September and this January credit from foreign-owned and domestic private banks rose by 3%; credit from public banks rose by 14%. The beneficiaries seem to be large firms, where loans are growing four times as quickly as at small ones.
问题是这样的增长是否有效以及可以持续多久。参考一下中国的投资。根据世界货币基金组织的费尔曼先生所言,2008年初时,所有能够推动经济增长的投资都来自于民营企业,大部分都是私人经济;从2008年12月开始,一半以上的经济增长都来自于国有企业。巴西的情况也十分类似。去年9月至今年1月,海外银行和国内私营银行的信贷量增长了3%;公共银行的信贷量增长了14%。看上去受益者是那些大型企业,大型企业的信贷量的增长速度是小型企业的4倍。

It is not clear how far, in the long run, the BRICs will be affected by a big rise in the size of the government and large state-owned firms. But that rise is probably inevitable. China and, to a lesser extent, Brazil and India, benefited hugely from America’s appetite for imports in 2000-08. That appetite has fallen and is likely to remain low for years, as American consumers adjust their spending and savings habits. The rise may also be difficult to reverse: the experience of the West has been that the public sector expands relentlessly until it reaches between 40% and 50% of GDP. But if the BRICs cannot export their way out of recession, the expansion of government is the main alternative to the slump being endured in those other big capital exporters, Germany and Japan. It is part of the price China and others are paying to clamber out of recession before everyone else.
金砖四国的政府及大型国有企业的规模扩张能够让它们受益多久尚无定论,但规模增长是个必然趋势。中国、巴西和印度在00年至08年间极其受益于美国的进口需求。这一需求已经下降而且可能在今后几年都很低,因为美国人将会调整他们的消费和储蓄习惯。规模的扩张也很难扭转:西方的经验是公共领域将在其到达占GDP40%和50%左右之前坚决扩张。但是如果金砖四国不能找到逃脱经济萧条之道,政府扩张是德国、日本等资本出口大国的唯一选择。这是中国先于其它国家摆脱经济萧条要付出的代价。
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:55 | 显示全部楼层
四砖四国也不是一个声音,尤其是中国和印度
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发表于 2010-4-29 01:35 | 显示全部楼层
都是利益关系啊。。中国和印度本来就不对付。。要不就不会那么支持巴基斯坦了
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:15 | 显示全部楼层
不错!
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:55 | 显示全部楼层
呵呵~
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