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[经济学人] [2006.12.7]Fund management: A Miller's tale

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发表于 2010-4-29 01:12 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
[2006.12.7]Fund management: A Miller's tale

Fund management
基金管理
A Miller’s tale
米勒传奇
Dec 7th 2006
From The Economist print edition
The winning streak of a super-investor comes to an end

一位超级投资者的持续胜利宣告终结

BEATING the S&P 500 index over one year could be put down to luck. But doing so 15 times in a row is about as likely as Elvis Presley landing a spaceship in the grounds of Buckingham Palace. So the success of Bill Miller, a fund manager at the Baltimore-based Legg Mason, has been a conundrum for those who believe in efficient markets.
持续一年多跑赢标准普尔500指数,你或许可以把此归功于运气好,然而能连续15次做到就不可能是运气好那么简单了,这就好比让“猫王”埃尔维斯-普雷斯利将太空船停在白金汉宫前的空地上一样难。因此,总部设在巴尔迪摩的Legg Mason公司财务经理米勒-比尔的成功对支持有效市场理论的人说,简直就是一个不解之谜。

The good news for the doubters is that his streak is set to come to an end this year. With a month to go, his Value fund had made a return of just 3.5%, well behind the S&P's 12.6%. Mr Miller admits to a few mistakes, including failing to own enough energy stocks, buying into housebuilding shares too early and suffering disappointing returns on some of his big internet picks, like Yahoo!.
不过,对这些怀疑者来说,好消息就是这场持续胜利将于今年宣告结束。2006年仅剩一个月,但他的价值基金回报率仅有可怜的3.5%, 远远落后于标准普尔的12.6%。米勒先生承认出了一些差错,包括没有占有充足的能源股,过早买进建筑股,以及从大型的互联网客户那里,比如雅虎,获得的回报率令人失望。

How does one explain the success of super-investors, such as Mr Miller or Warren Buffett, when so few fund managers beat the index? One trait of good long-term investors seems to be that they rarely trade; it takes them several years, rather than a few months, to turn over their portfolios. A lot of investors trade frantically and achieve nothing but higher costs; Mr Miller changes just 15% of his portfolio every year.
在少之又少的财务经理跑赢指数时,我们又将如何解释像米勒先生或者沃伦-巴菲特这样的超级投资者何以频频获胜?优秀的长期投资者一个显著的共同点就是他们不轻易交易,而且他们花数年而非数月调整投资组合。许多投资者疯狂地交易,但毫无斩获,并且增长了成本;而米勒先生每年只调整其15%的投资组合。

Failure at his 16th attempt does not seem to have dampened his spirit. After all, since the market started to rebound in August, he has been beating the index once more. And he is ultra-bullish about the outlook for 2007, saying that 15-25% returns from America's stockmarket are “not [an] unreasonable scenario”. Indeed, just as when the market bottomed in 2002, he is willing to borrow money to buy shares. With a record like his, it takes guts to bet against him.
16次尝试的失败似乎并没有让他意志消沉。毕竟,自市场在八月开始反弹至今,他又一次跑赢指数。不仅如此,他很看好2007年的市场前景,称从美国股票市场上获得15-25%的回报率并非是不切实际的设想。事实上,就在2002年市场跌入低谷时,他依然乐于筹资购买股份。有着这样的经历,想要驳倒他,的确需要点勇气。
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发表于 2010-4-29 01:57 | 显示全部楼层
似乎无人来踩阿,看样子还得继续努力啊
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:42 | 显示全部楼层
个人觉得这篇比你另外一篇通畅很多,另外一篇太英文化了,好象有人也翻过这篇,还挺不错的,可以对比下,对比文章最有意思。
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发表于 2010-4-29 03:27 | 显示全部楼层
呵呵,谢谢鼓励。我也注意到这个问题了,感觉受原文束缚挺大的,但很难改正,不知 lazyfish 有何高见啊

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