大家论坛

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 1218|回复: 13

[经济学人] [2009.06.02] Mining mergers 采矿业并购前景回暖

[复制链接]

269

主题

8324

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20597
发表于 2010-4-28 21:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Mining mergers

Prospects for a thaw 采矿业并购前景回暖

Jun 4th 2009
From The Economist print edition

The revival of commodity prices has also resuscitated talk of mergers
商品价格反弹亦使合并话题重提。



THE giants of the mining industry might be forgiven a little wistfulness. Just over 18 months ago rumours were rife that a wave of mega-mergers was on the way, the product of persistently high commodity prices. This culminated in a bid by one of the world’s biggest diversified miners, BHP Billiton, for another, Rio Tinto, in November 2007. In the wake of BHP’s approach to Rio more huge deals seemed likely. Might, for example, Vale, a Brazilian giant, bid for Xstrata, which has its headquarters in Switzerland, or could Xstrata bid for Anglo American, based in Britain?

制造业巨头们或许又可见到一丝曙光。仅在18个月前还流言肆意:作为商品价格持续走高的产物,一波大的并购潮正在酝酿之中。此种情况在2007年世界最大的多样化经营矿业巨头----必和必拓(BHP Billiton)竞购另一巨头力拓(Rio Tinto)时达到顶峰。而紧随必和必拓收购力拓,更多的巨额收购似乎都成为了可能。比如,巴西矿业巨擘淡水河谷(Vale)可能竞购总部设于瑞士的矿业集团Xstrata,或Xstrata也许会竞购总部设于英国的英美资源集团(Anglo American)?

Even as steel mills around the world fall silent, mining’s rumour mill is cranking up again. Recently talk has centred on whether BHP will revive its failed bid for Rio. A spoiling Chinese investment, restrictive competition rules, Rio’s debt burden and nervous regulators would make this difficult, though not impossible. Others moot that Xstrata and Anglo might join forces. In the biggest deal so far this year, Grupo Mexico this week offered $2.9 billion to regain control of Asarco, an American former subsidiary that is in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, topping rival bids from a hedge fund and Vedanta, India’s biggest mining firm.

正当世界各地的钢厂陷入沉寂之际,传闻中的采矿业工厂又在跃跃欲试。近期的话题聚焦于必和必拓是否会重启其一度失败的力拓收购案。虽然此项并购不无可能,但有意败兴的中国注资(不过中铝已宣布力拓已撕毁合同)、限制性竞争规则、力拓的债务负担及神经质的监管机构均使收购举步维艰。其他人则在讨论Xstrata和英美资源集团或许会通力合作。在迄今年内最大规模的收购案中,墨西哥集团(Grupo Mexico) 本周打败一家对冲基金和印度最大矿业公司Vedanta的竞标,出资29亿美元重新掌控Asarco,Asarco是被第11条破产法保护的其前美国分公司。

Although the hubbub about mergers sounds familiar, almost everything else has changed for the worse for the mining industry since those heady days. Back then takeovers were tempting not least because the industry was producing shovel-loads of cash and record valuations made purchases with shares alluring. Since then, however, commodity prices have thudded back to earth as the world economy has slumped and China’s red-hot growth has cooled off.

虽然有关并购的喧闹耳闻能详,但自那些景气日子以来,对采矿业几乎诸事不宜。回顾彼时,并购存在的诱惑,相当重要的原因是该行业可谓日进斗金,而且创纪录的估值也让股权收购具有吸引力。然而,自那时起,随着世界经济下挫及中国炽热的经济增势冷却,商品价格跌到了谷底。

The reversal of fortunes for miners has been staggering. Copper, which at its peak in July 2008 traded at nearly $9,000 a tonne, slumped to below $3,000 at the beginning of this year. Other metals have suffered a similar clobbering. And in late May the annual negotiations to fix a benchmark price for iron ore between its three biggest producers (Rio, BHP and Vale) resulted in Japan’s steelmakers securing a price cut of 33% from last year.

矿业公司命运的逆转一直令人难以置信。铜的价格由2008年7月峰值的近9000美元/吨,一度跌至今年年初的3000美元/吨下方。其它金属价格亦遭受了同样的痛击。5月末世界三大铁矿石制造商(力拓、必和必拓和淡水和谷)对本年度铁矿石基准价格的制定进行了协商,这致使日本钢铁制造商获得的报价低于去年价格的33%。

That is not enough for China’s steelmakers, which are abandoning the 40-year-old system for fixing the price of iron ore and demanding an even fiercer cut. Some steel firms have also taken advantage of the low price to invest in iron-ore mines of their own.

这对中国钢铁制造商来说还不够,他们打算放弃有40年历史的铁矿石定价体系,甚至要求更残酷的降幅。有些钢铁公司也利用低价位投资,自己开采铁矿石。

Perhaps the best indication of the shifting balance of power within the industry is the endless upheaval at Rio. Chinalco, an aluminium company controlled by China’s government, at first bought 9% of Rio to foil BHP’s takeover bid, which steelmakers feared would leave a single firm with a near-monopoly in iron ore. BHP later abandoned the bid, at the height of the credit crunch, because of concerns about financing its target’s vast debts. That crushing debt forced Rio to strike a further deal with Chinalco in February: in return for $19.5 billion the Chinese firm would receive shares in some of Rio’s most profitable mines and convertible bonds that would allow it to raise its stake in the parent firm to 18%.

也许该行业内部权势均衡转变的最佳诠释就是力拓一直在摇摆不定。中国政府控股的铝业公司,中国铝业,起先买入力拓9%的股份,破坏了必和必拓的收购案,钢铁制造商担忧该收购案成功将会产生唯一一家几乎会垄断铁矿石行业的公司。后来在信贷萎缩达到顶点时,由于担心为标的物(指力拓)的巨额债务筹资,必和必拓放弃了竞标。那笔具有毁灭性的债务迫使力拓在2月份与中国铝业达成进一步协议:中方出资195亿美元的回报是获取力拓核心矿产的股份及可转换债,使中国铝业所持力拓总公司的股份增至18%。

Uproar from shareholders, who were not given the chance to participate in the fund-raising, forced a renegotiation to limit Chinalco’s stake. The wrangling may even cause the deal to collapse. It was struck when commodity prices were near their trough and looks too generous now that they have recovered somewhat (see Buttonwood).

没有给予参与筹资机会的股东引发的骚乱,迫使重启一轮意在限制中国铝业所持股份的谈判。这种争吵也许甚至会导致协议流产。在商品价格接近谷底时达成了该协议,而在价格已有所反弹的当下,该协议看起来相当“大方”(对中国铝业来说)。

Copper now trades at nearer $5,000 a tonne. The price of iron ore may be falling, but this year’s drop in benchmark prices is the first since 2002. Even if China forces through a 40% cut, that will merely bring the price back to 2007 levels. Mining firms’ shares, which plummeted in response to the credit crunch, have perked up a lot since the beginning of the year. Rio’s have doubled in price since January and almost trebled from their low point late last year.

目前铜的交易价格在5000美元/吨附近。铁矿石价格或将下滑,但今年基准价格的走低是2002年以来的首次。即使中国强行降价40%,那也仅会使价格回到2007年水平。曾应信贷萎缩之声而下挫的采矿业公司股票,自年初以来已大幅反弹。力拓的股价自一月来已翻番,而自去年的低点以来已几乎翻三倍。

Light at the end of the shaft 运筹帷幄

The barren landscape of an open-cast mine is unlikely ground to nurture green shoots, but most analysts and industry insiders reckon that they can see plenty. Growth may have slowed in China and India, but the urbanisation that drives demand for copper and steel seems bound to resume before long. Meanwhile, many governments’ attempts to revitalise their economies involve big infrastructure schemes that will require lots of metal. Senior executives at mining firms say that the rise of China and other developing countries means that the industry will not suffer a flashback to the 1980s and 1990s, when supply and demand remained in balance and commodity prices stayed low.

露天采矿业的惨淡景象似乎不大可能出现经济复苏的征兆,但大多数分析师及业内人士均认为其前途不可限量。中国和印度的经济或已减速,但推动铜和钢铁需求的城市化似乎注定会很快复苏。同时,许多政府重振经济的努力也包括了会需要大量金属的大型基础建设计划。矿业公司的高官们表示,中国和其它发展中国家需求的增长意味着,该行业不会倒退至上世纪八、九十年代,彼时供需维持均衡,商品价格低廉。

In part, that is because supply looks surprisingly tight. Mining companies dashed to raise production while prices were soaring. But rapidly rising earnings masked huge cost increases, particularly in fuel and wages. So when the fall in commodity prices hit earnings, mining firms responded with swift and deep cuts, closing mines and deferring new projects. Anglo has said that it will halve capital expenditure this year. McKinsey, a consultancy, expects that investment across the industry, at $62 billion, will be roughly half what it was last year and will fall again in 2010.

部分原因是供应意外趋紧。当价格飙升时矿业公司争先恐后增产。但快速增收却掩盖了巨额成本的增加,尤其是燃料和工资成本。因此当商品价格下滑打压收益时,矿业公司就用快速的大幅减产来应对,即关闭矿山并推迟新项目。英美资源集团已表示,公司今年会将成本支出减半。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)预计,今年整个行业的投资额,为620亿美元,大概是去年投资额的一半,且2010年还将下滑。

Cutting capital expenditure causes the pipeline of new projects to dry up faster. Lower exploration budgets mean that the big miners are less likely to unearth the “tier one” assets they crave—long-lived and low-cost deposits that are nearly certain to remain profitable no matter what happens in fickle commodity markets in the seven to ten years it takes to bring them into full production. And politics tends to compound these problems. Mining giants were enraged by forced renegotiations of existing deals last year by governments in such places as Congo, Guinea and Mongolia and are now warier of making big investments in risky parts of the world.

削减资本支出导致新项目渠道更快枯竭。较低的探测预算表明,大型矿业公司更加不可能发掘他们所渴望的“核心”资产——即寿命长、成本低的矿床,它们需耗时七至十年才能进行满负荷生产,在此期间内不管变幻莫测的商品市场发生何事,此类矿床几乎能保证维持赢利。且政治因素倾向于使这些问题恶化。去年一些地区的政府,如刚果、几内亚和蒙古,强迫对一些已存在的合约进行重新协商,矿业巨头们对此暴怒不已,因此目前他们在世界上有风险的地区进行大规模投资是更加的小心谨慎。

“Junior” miners, exploration companies that provide another source of future assets by taking on the risky discovery and early development of new mines, have been brought to a standstill by the dearth of debt to finance their activities. Perhaps wisely, big miners have eschewed using their precious resources to mop up medium-sized companies on the cheap, as some had predicted. Many of these firms, which tend not to produce ore as cheaply as the “majors, could go out of business.

因为缺乏信贷来支持它们的业务,已使“初级”矿业公司——即通过从事风险探索及新矿山早期开发,提供其它未来资产来源的勘探公司——处于停滞状态。正如某些人预言,大型矿业公司或许是从更广的层面出发,已拒绝了用其宝贵的资源,在价格低廉时对中型公司赶尽杀绝。许多不想生产如“高管们”一样廉价的铁矿石的公司可能会停产。

The proportion of existing mines in flabby middle-age is growing as the rate of discovery of new tier-one assets has slowed over recent years. For example, BHP reckons that 35% of Chile’s copper production capacity is from mines that are more than 50 years old and 70% from those more than 20 years old. As mines age, ore grades decline, since the best stuff is usually dug up first.

近年来因新的“核心”资产发现率已下降,现有矿山中处于江河日下的中等年龄的比例一直在上扬。如,力和力拓认为,智利的铜产能中有35%是来自那些有50多年历史的矿山,70%来自那些有20多年历史的矿山。随着矿山年龄的增长,铁矿石的等级下滑,因为最好的往往被最先发掘。

The big mining companies all believe that high commodity prices will return, although no one is prepared to say when. The easiest way of acquiring more tier-one assets to exploit during the next boom, while stripping out costs into the bargain, may be the revival of the mega-merger.

所有的大型矿业公司都相信高价商品时代会再现,虽然没人准备说出具体时间。而在下一繁荣期获得开采更多“核心”资产的最简单方法或许就是大规模并购的复苏,而且要剔除成本。





回复

使用道具 举报

239

主题

8122

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20122
发表于 2010-4-28 21:45 | 显示全部楼层
说几点
Back then takeovers were tempting not least because the industry was producing shovel-loads of cash and record valuations made purchases with shares alluring
回顾彼时,并购存在的诱惑,相当重要的原因是该行业可谓日进斗金,而且高记录的价值使购买会带来诱
人的股票。
那时候,并购十分诱人,原因就在于该行业可谓日进斗金,创纪录的估值也让股权收购具有吸引力
注意,这里面的 valuations是估值。经济高涨的时候 股票的估值也就水涨船高


The barren landscape of an open-cast mine is unlikely ground to nurture green shoots, but
most analysts and industry insiders reckon that they can see plenty.
露天采矿业的凄凉景象似乎前景迷茫,但大多数分析师及业内人士均认为其前途不可限量。
从露天采矿业的惨淡景象似乎不大可能看到经济复苏的征兆。但大多数分析师及业内人士均认为还是可以
看到些曙光
这里面的 green shoots 字面上是 绿芽破土而出, 其实就是指 经济复苏。 ground to nurture 孕育  
之意
太困了 明儿接着看
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

207

主题

8322

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20567
发表于 2010-4-28 22:15 | 显示全部楼层
1. 制造业巨头们或许又可见到一丝曙光
THE giants of the mining industry might be forgiven a little wistfulness.
翻成或许又可重温旧梦。 wistfulness-->梦


2. 正当世界各地的钢厂陷入沉寂之际,传闻中的采矿业工厂又在跃跃欲试
mining’s rumour mill
矿业的谣言工厂也飞转起来

3. 而颇具破坏性的中国注资
Spoiling -- 有意败兴的中国注资。 spoil a party

4. 神经质
Nervous -- 紧张 is fine. Nervous is not that negative.

5. 斥资29亿  
offered $2.9 billion  -- 叫价 比 “斥资” 好。

6. 而且高记录的价值使购买会带来诱人的股票
made purchases with shares alluring
用股票 (with shares) 来买很诱人 -- 同意楼上meiyongchun 说的, “股权收购”。

7. 矿业公司命运的逆转一直令人难以置信。
The reversal of fortunes for miners has been staggering.
去掉“一直”

8. 也许该行业内部权势均衡转变的最佳诠释就是中国铝业,

Perhaps the best indication of the shifting balance of power within the industry is the endless upheaval at Rio.
应该是: 也许该行业内部权势均衡转变的最佳诠释就是Rio的无休无止的动荡

9. 这种争吵也许甚至会导致协议流产
The wrangling may even cause the deal to collapse.
-- 这争吵几乎导致协议流产

10. 大型矿业公司更加不愿意发掘他们所渴望的“核心”资产——即寿命长、成本低的矿床
miners are less likely to unearth
大型矿业公司不太可能发掘。。。

12. 而且目前在世界上有危险的地区进行大规模投资是更加的小心谨慎。
and are now warier of making big investments in risky parts of the world.
因而在目前。。。

13. 因对其业务的财政支持而引发的债务饥荒,已使“初级”矿业公司——即通过从事风险探索及新矿山早期开发,提供其它未来资产来源的勘探公司——处于停滞状态。
by the dearth of debt to finance their activities.
因为缺乏信贷来支持它们的业务。。。debt, credit, they are the two sides of the same coin ... "accounting English"

14. 正如某些人预言,大型矿业公司或许是从更广的层面出发,已拒绝了用其宝贵的资源,在价格低廉时对中型公司赶尽杀绝。许多不想生产如“高管们”一样廉价的铁矿石的公司可能会停产。
big miners have eschewed using their precious resources to mop up medium-sized companies on the cheap, as some had predicted. Many of these firms, which tend not to produce ore as cheaply as the “majors”, could go out of business.
。。。这些公司生产的矿石一般不能象大型矿业公司那样便宜。。。

15. 同时协议外要附加剥离出的成本
while stripping out costs into the bargain
。。。同时(加上?)把成本抵在占的便宜里。。。

16. Light at the end of the shaft 运筹帷幄
-- it is from the light at the end of the tunnel.
--转杆上的曙光?
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

233

主题

8453

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20948
发表于 2010-4-28 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
呵呵,看君一言,真是豁然开朗,valuation这句把我绕得很迷糊!

The barren landscape of an open-cast mine is unlikely ground to nurture green shoots, but most analysts and industry insiders reckon that they can see plenty. 从露天采矿业的惨淡景象似乎不大可能看到经济复苏的征兆。但大多数分析师及业内人士均认为还是可以
前半句隐含的深意都表述出来了,但they can see plenty(曙光)我觉得要比它的程度多一点吧?
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

234

主题

8254

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20380
发表于 2010-4-28 23:15 | 显示全部楼层
plenty 确实比较多了,再改改
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

152

主题

8299

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20553
发表于 2010-4-28 23:45 | 显示全部楼层
THE giants of the mining industry might be forgiven a little wistfulness.
翻成或许又可重温旧梦。 重温旧梦也可以,但还是没将forgive的意思表述出来,我不明白的也在于此。

mining’s rumour mill
矿业的谣言工厂也飞转起来。这句话指的是又动起了并购的念头。并不是指工厂生产吧。

而颇具破坏性的中国注资
Spoiling -- 有意败兴的中国注资。 采纳

斥资29亿  
offered $2.9 billion  -- 叫价 比 “斥资” 好。 叫价不如“出价”,那就出资吧?

矿业公司命运的逆转一直令人难以置信。
The reversal of fortunes for miners has been staggering.
去掉“一直”,应该加上吧,体现的是has been doing这个时态的意思

Perhaps the best indication of the shifting balance of power within the industry is the endless upheaval at Rio.
应该是: 也许该行业内部权势均衡转变的最佳诠释就是Rio的无休无止的动荡

呵呵,采纳,看错了标点。

这种争吵也许甚至会导致协议流产
The wrangling may even cause the deal to collapse.
-- 这争吵几乎导致协议流产

这协议现在已经流产了,而作者写本文时这事还没发生,他用的是猜测的语气。

大型矿业公司更加不愿意发掘他们所渴望的“核心”资产——即寿命长、成本低的矿床
miners are less likely to unearth
大型矿业公司不太可能发掘。。。采纳

而且目前在世界上有危险的地区进行大规模投资是更加的小心谨慎。
and are now warier of making big investments in risky parts of the world.
因而在目前。。。嗯,是因果关系,是不省略了therefore啊

by the dearth of debt to finance their activities.
因为缺乏信贷来支持它们的业务。。。debt, credit, they are the two sides of the same coin ... "accounting English"

采纳,呵呵,我总是认为debt只有债务这一个意思呢

正如某些人预言,大型矿业公司或许是从更广的层面出发,已拒绝了用其宝贵的资源,在价格低廉时对中型公司赶尽杀绝。许多不想生产如“高管们”一样廉价的铁矿石的公司可能会停产。
big miners have eschewed using their precious resources to mop up medium-sized companies on the cheap, as some had predicted. Many of these firms, which tend not to produce ore as cheaply as the “majors”, could go out of business.
。。。这些公司生产的矿石一般不能象大型矿业公司那样便宜。。。

总觉得这个major是个指代?

同时协议外要附加剥离出的成本
while stripping out costs into the bargain
。。。同时(加上?)把成本抵在占的便宜里。。。

我还是迷糊.....

Light at the end of the shaft 运筹帷幄
-- it is from the light at the end of the tunnel.
--转杆上的曙光?

好像还是我的意思精练,呵呵
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

216

主题

8098

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20055
发表于 2010-4-29 00:15 | 显示全部楼层
wistfulness is supposedly a bad thing, so, those big guys were punished -- and they failed in doing what they wanted to. Now, they are forgiven, they are allowed to indulge a little bit, so ,they can revive or relive the wistfulness ...
--------
mining’s rumour mill: mill is kind of factory, rumour mill means a factory the produces rumour. so, it is "rumor mill" in/for mining industry.
---------
while stripping out costs into the bargain
我也觉得不好说, 可能得意译了。
我理解的意思如下:
bargain 是 占便宜 -- 不景气时, 大吃小时, 合并时的便宜。
costs 是搞到tier-one 的成本, 要从头开发会很贵。
strip out 是移开。
把上面合起来: 靠占便宜弄到tier-one 而省下成本。
至于翻译, 那就不容易啦, 哈哈。。。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

184

主题

8259

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20462
发表于 2010-4-29 01:15 | 显示全部楼层
strip out,剔除的意思吧

into the bargain  :in addition to the other facts previously talked about
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

244

主题

8269

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20551
发表于 2010-4-29 01:45 | 显示全部楼层
1. I found it:

while stripping out costs into the bargain
while = by = because of

so, it is:
而在下一繁荣期获得开采更多“核心”资产的最简单方法或许就是大规模并购的复苏,从而把成本打入并购的廉价交易中。

2.It is related to
Light at the end of the shaft

“shaft” refers to “钻杆”, for钻井 in discovery.
-- note that since it is a subtitle, it is OK whatever your translation is. I am mentioning it again, because I incorrectly suggested it as "转" 杆 -- now, I believe I know better, suddenly :-)
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

219

主题

8308

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20735
发表于 2010-4-29 02:15 | 显示全部楼层
关于stripping out 那句,我是很迷糊啊,正常理解,在并购中,如果你是买主,价格越低廉越好吧,所以这个成本怎么会是加入呢?

还有那个小标题,呵呵,是意译
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则



诚聘英才|移动端|Archiver|版权声明|大家论坛 ( 京ICP备06071611号,京公网安备11010802018363号 )

GMT+8, 2020-10-30 00:53 , Processed in 0.097991 second(s), 8 queries , Redis On.

Powered by Discuz!

© Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表