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[经济学人] [2007.08.30] Buttonwood:The long and the short of it

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发表于 2010-4-28 20:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Buttonwood


The long and the short of it
系统中的“长”与“短”


Aug 30th 2007
From The Economist print edition



A complex system, but a simple problem
复杂系统,简单问题




ILLIQUIDITY—the difficulty of selling assets at a reasonable price—is at the heart of all financial crises. The market turmoil of the past few weeks is proving that maxim, albeit in novel and interesting ways.
流动性不足,及难以以合理价格兑现资产,处于所有金融危机的中心地位。过去几周的市场骚动证明了这条至理格言,虽然通过另一种新颖并“有趣”的方式。



The financial system has been transformed over the past 25 years, with the emergence of new investors (hedge funds and private-equity groups) and new instruments (derivatives and structured products). But what look like incredibly sophisticated strategies on the surface can still be very simple at heart. Investors have been doing what banks have done over the centuries, borrowing short and lending long. Or, to put it another way, they have borrowed in liquid form and invested the proceeds in illiquid assets.
在过去二十五年中,随着新生投资主体的出现(对冲基金和私募股权投资组织)与新型金融工具的产生(金融衍生品和结构化产品),金融系统已经焕然一新。但表面上看来难以置信的深奥微妙的投资策略其核心依旧很简明。投资主体从事着几世纪以来银行的业务,短借长贷。或者,换一种方式,借入流动性资产,将得到的资金投入到非流动资产中。



Most of the time this strategy works, because illiquid assets offer a premium return to compensate for the higher risk. It has been given an extra kicker over the last two decades by the “Great Moderation” in the global economy. Falling inflation and steady growth have meant that periods of economic turmoil have been shorter than expected, causing less pain to investors.
绝大部分时间中,该策略是奏效的,由于低流动性资产会提供额外回报以补偿其较高的风险。全球经济的“大稳定”又推了它一把。通涨回落、稳定增长意味着经济动荡比预期要短,这减轻了投资者的痛苦。



But the markets never rest.As more money flowed into risky assets, the excess yields on offer were reduced. Investors were tempted to use more and more borrowed money to enhance the returns. That left them very vulnerable to any abrupt change in sentiment.
但市场运动永不停歇,当更多的货币资金流进风险资产,提供的额外收益就会减少,引诱投资者使用越来越多的借贷资金以增加获利。这使得他们容易受到任何情绪突变的影响并造成损失。



The problems of structured investment vehicles (SIVs) are a case in point. These are specialist funds, kept separate from their parent company's balance sheet, that invest in illiquid assets, such as securities backed by subprime mortgages. They funded those long-term investments by borrowing short-term in the money markets, in the form of commercial paper. Other investors were happy to buy that commercial paper because it was “asset-backed”, in the form of the mortgage debt.
结构投资工具的问题就是一个恰当的例子。这种特别基金的资产负债表与母公司相分离,投资于低流动性资产,诸如次级抵押担保债券。通过在货币市场以商业票据形式筹集短期资金,特别基金进驻并配置长期投资。而其他投资主体很乐意购买商业票据,因为其拥有抵押债务形式的资产担保。




Now investors, worried about the value of the mortgage-backed debt, are boycotting the commercial paper. The amount of paper outstanding has fallen by $181 billion in two weeks, according to Société Générale, a French bank. This has driven the vehicles on an increasingly desperate hunt for funding. On August 28th Standard & Poor's, a rating agency, downgraded one SIV, Cheyne Finance, and gave warning that it may be forced to sell all of its assets.
现如今,投资者对于抵押担保债务的价值忧心忡忡并联合起来共同抵制商业票据。据法国Société Générale银行,两周以来商业票据公开发行出售量减少1810亿美元。这使得结构投资机构愈发不顾一切搜寻筹款。8月28日,评级机构标准·普尔公司调降了一支结构投资机构--切尼财务公司的评级,并警告投资者该公司可能会被迫出售其全部资产。



The effect is rippling through the system. First, forced liquidations push down the price of assets, hitting confidence further. Second, some of these SIVs were either set up by, or have back-up lending facilities with, banks. So banks are ending up back on the hook. Third, these unwanted assets are putting additional strain on banks' balance sheets, which forces them to restrict their lending. It all adds up to a classic liquidity crisis.
该影响泛起的层层涟漪贯穿这一系统。第一,被迫进行的清算下压资产价格,深层次打击信心。第二,一些结构投资机构是由银行发起设立或者作后援支持的,因此银行受到拖累并陷入破产。第三,这些多余资产会增添银行资产负债表额外的损伤,这将迫使银行对放贷进行自我约束。以上情况都指向了一种结果—典型的流动性危机。



Two new academic papers suggest that such crises may be inherent to financial markets. In the first*, the academics link the liquidity of the markets to the ability of traders to get funding. In some circumstances (like now), this system becomes destabilising as traders are forced to put up more capital to fund their positions. This causes them to sell assets, sending prices down further and prompting lenders to demand pledges of even more capital. This is a description of the liquidity trap that doomed Long-Term Capital Management, an American hedge fund, almost a decade ago.
两篇最新的学术论文提出,这些危机可能是金融市场所固有的。第一篇论文将市场流动性与交易者融资能力相联系。在某些情况之下(如今),当交易者被迫动用很多的资金以保持其寸头时,该系统就会发生动摇。这会致使他们出售资产,导致价格进一步走低并驱使放款者要求以更多资金作为抵押。导致美国对冲基金LTCM灭亡的就是这种“流动性陷阱”。



The second paper suggests that traders face “Knightian uncertainty”, or risks that cannot be measured. When liquidity appears to be limited, those faced with this uncertainty fear the worst and try to hang on to their capital, exacerbating the lack of liquidity in the markets.
第二篇论文提出交易者面临“奈特不确定性”或无法度量的风险。当流动性出现紧缩势头,面对这种不确定性的交易者担心最坏情况出现并设法紧紧握着他们的资本,这无疑加剧了市场中流动性的缺乏。



This uncertainty may have been increased by the lack of transparency in the modern financial system. No one is sure who owns what, so investors are treating all counterparties with suspicion. And the much-touted advantage of the system—the way that risk has been dispersed—looks less convincing now that banks have been saddled with the cost of funding private-equity buy-outs and SIVs.
在缺乏透明度的现代金融系统中,这种不确定性增加了没有人可以确定谁手里拿着什么东西,因此投资人对所有对手都充满怀疑被鼓吹的该系统优势:风险分散的方式,目前看来缺乏说服力,因为银行承受着资助私募股权收购和结构投资机构的成本。



In the past, liquidity crises have been solved by the emergence of a confident buyer with deep pockets, such as John Pierpont Morgan in 1907. But who could it be this time? Pension funds and insurance companies no longer have the flexibility, while hedge funds are facing tighter funding and the prospect of redemptions. That leaves the sovereign wealth funds of China and the Middle East. But even if they want to buy in bulk, do Western governments want to let them?
在过去,自信并且资金充足的买方出现将“挽救”流动性危机,如1907年的约翰.皮尔蓬.摩根。而这次将会是谁呢?养老基金和保险公司的灵活性不再,同时对冲基金正面临着筹资困难与未来赎回压力,而剩下的只有中国与中东的主权财富基金。但即使他们想要大批量购入,西方政府会同意放闸么?





*Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity”, by Markus Brunnermeier and Lase Heje Pedersen, June 2007.
Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode”, by Ricardo Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy, August 2007.
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发表于 2010-4-28 21:36 | 显示全部楼层
这是描述约十年前宣告名为“长期资本运营”的美国对冲基金命运的那种流动性陷阱。??     兄弟为何要翻译成这样呢?

其他都做出了修改 谢谢兄弟
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
The amount of paper outstanding has fallen
两周以来商业票据发行总量
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
outstanding: the amount owed as a debt, 未完结的; 未清的;未付的
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:26 | 显示全部楼层
The amount of paper outstanding has fallen
两周以来商业票据发行总量
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
outstanding: the amount owed as a debt, 未完结的; 未清的;未付的

结合上下文,我感觉这里outstanding:publicly issued and sold 已公开发行且出售的 意思
outstanding stocks and bonds.
已发行的股票和债券
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:51 | 显示全部楼层
the academics link the liquidity of the markets to the ability of traders to get funding.
这个我考虑了一下 其实我本来也想翻译成“筹资”
但是 为了想要表达Or, to put it another way, they have borrowed in liquid form and invested the proceeds in illiquid assets   特别是对于funding 我这里把他的意思完全表达一下,我看了一下文中提到的“Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity”这篇论文,基本意思就是短期资本融集并投资低流动性资本,通过发行存单的方式进行。也就是“发行长期债券收回短期债券的能力”  我想不到更好的表达。
个人意见,不管那篇论文说什么,funding 就是融资。你那句不是翻译,而是改写了。
回到那篇论文。摘要第一句:We provide a model that links an asset's market liquidity i.e., the ease with which it is traded and traders' funding liquidity i.e., the ease with which they can obtain funding. 还是没有长债,短债。
而且trader 融资的方式通常不是发行长期债券。When a trader e.g. a dealer, hedge fund, or investment bank buys a security, he can use the security as collateral and borrow against it, but he cannot borrow the entire price.
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:16 | 显示全部楼层
First of all , good job

ILLIQUIDITY—the difficulty of selling assets at a reasonable price—is at the heart of all financial crises
非流动性,及难以以合理价格兑现资产,处于整个金融危机的中心地位。
Illiquidity..... is at heart of crises
这个破折号重新定义illiquidity 的,我不认为是和illiquidity并列的成分。
我理解首句这个illiquidity 是泛指流动性差的资产,超过illiqudity assets (一年内没法变现)的概念。作者意思应该是说“流动性不足”是危机的主旋律。


“Great Moderation”
中国怎么翻译的?
大缓和? 大稳定?
解释经济周期是不是还是大缓和好些?

It has been given an extra kicker over the last two decades by the “Great Moderation” in the global economy.
在过去二十年中的全球经济“大稳定”时期,该资产偿付了额外酬的金

illiquidity assets have given a kicker to economy 是这么个意思。 没看懂“额外酬的资金”是什么意思,写错了?
这里是说低流动性这些金融产品给不温不火的经济提供额外的刺激。


我的愚见,探讨一下
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:06 | 显示全部楼层
以我个人的汉语理解:发行总量,某一时期发行的总量。发行是 issue
而outstanding 是某一时间内,未结的债务,可以是债券也可以是股票。
outstanding stocks 指的不是发行的总量,如果发行了,但retired,不 ...


破折号里面却是插入语,但作用就是解释illiquidity 的。不管怎么翻译都不该影响句子逻辑关系。

LZ 的译文,破折号当作and ,or这种连词翻译了。

翻成两句或者当成括号翻译,他都不是主语;所以它不是并列的。
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:31 | 显示全部楼层
they have borrowed in liquid form and invested the proceeds in illiquid assets.
借入流动性资产,将得到的资金投入到非流动资产中
proceeds here  means the borrowed fund

It has been given an extra kicker over the last two decades by the “Great Moderation” in the global economy.
全球经济的大温和又推了它一把

因为银行背负承受着私募股权收购和结构投资机构的成本。
fund资助

The amount of paper outstanding has fallen by $181 billion in two weeks,
outstanding。是发行在外的,流通中的

economic turmoil
应该是经济动荡了。主要说经济一直比较稳定
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:56 | 显示全部楼层
感谢狐狸兄
除了outstanding之外全部做出相应修改 我感觉还是"发行量"。而且这和你说的也是一回事啊...

再次感谢,点评的很精确很到位。
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发表于 2010-4-29 01:21 | 显示全部楼层
前面一位兄弟说了,发行量=outstanding+retired 。我觉得这个比较有道理。
像是股票,发行了1000万。回购了500万。outstanding是 500万吧
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