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[经济学人] [2008.06.26]Capital inflows to China资本心急火燎涌向中国

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发表于 2010-4-28 22:20 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Jun 26th 2008 |《经济学人》杂志  (本人翻译E的处女作~)


Capital inflows to China

Hot and bothered
Jun 26th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

Despite strict capital controls, China is being flooded by the biggest wave of speculative capital ever to hit an emerging economy
 尽管有着严格的资本管制,中国正在承受迄今最大一轮针对新兴经济体的投机资本大潮的冲击。

  

Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi



A POPULAR game this summer among watchers of the Chinese economy is to guess the size of speculative capital or “hot money” flowing into the country. One clue is that although China’s trade surplus has started to shrink this year, its foreign-exchange reserves are growing at an ever faster pace. The bulk of its net foreign-currency receipts now comes from capital inflows, not the current-account surplus.
今年夏天,在观察中国经济的人士中流行着一个游戏:猜测有多少投机资本或“热钱”进入中国。一个迹象是,虽然今年中国的贸易顺差已经开始收缩,其外汇储备却还在以更快的步伐增长。而目前中国大部分净外币收益是来自资本流入,而不是经常性帐户的盈余。


According to leaked official figures, China’s foreign-exchange reserves jumped by $115 billion during April and May, to $1.8 trillion. In the five months to May, reported reserves swelled by $269 billion, 20% more than in the same period of last year. But even this understates the true rate at which the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been piling up foreign exchange.
根据官方披露的数据,在今年四月份到五月份期间,中国的外汇储备为1.8万亿,减少了1150亿美元。而在五月份之前的五个月中,中国的外汇储备增加了2690亿美元,较去年同期增长20%。但即使是这也被认为是中国央行低估了外汇的累积。

  
Logan Wright, a Beijing-based analyst at Stone & McCarthy, an economic-research firm, has done some statistical detective work to make sense of the figures. The first problem is that reported reserves exclude the transfer of foreign exchange from the PBOC to the China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign-wealth fund. The reserve figures have also been reduced in book-keeping terms this year by the PBOC “asking” banks to use dollars to pay for the extra reserves that they are now required to hold at the central bank. Adding these two items to reported reserves, Mr Wright reckons that total foreign-exchange assets rose by an astonishing $393 billion in the first five months of 2008 (see chart), more than double the increase in the same period last year.
一位在经济研究公司Stone & McCarthy总部北京的分析师罗根莱特做了一些统计侦查工作理解这些数字。第一个问题是,报告中的外汇储备并没有包括从中国人民银行向中国投资有限责任公司(中国国家主权财富基金,简称“中投”)转移的外汇。由于央行要求各金融机构用美元来支付外汇存款准备金,今年帐面上外汇储备的数字也有所减少。加上这两个项目的储备,莱特先生估计在今年头五个月,中国外汇总资产惊人地增加了3930亿美元(见图表),与去年同期相比,增速高出一倍还多。




China’s trade surplus and foreign direct investment (FDI) explain only 30% of this. Deducting investment income and the increase in the value of non-dollar reserves as the dollar has fallen still leaves an unexplained residual of $214 billion, equivalent to over $500 billion at an annual rate. Some economists use this as a proxy for hot-money inflows. But some of it may reflect non-speculative transactions, such as foreign borrowing by Chinese firms. Mr Wright therefore estimates that China received up to $170 billion in hot money in the first five months of 2008. This far exceeds anything previously experienced by any emerging economy.
中国的贸易顺差和外国直接投资(FDI)仅能解释外汇总资产增加量的30%。扣除投资收入和随着美元储备下降而带来的非美元储备的增加,仍然有一个无法解释的2140亿美元,按年利率计算相当于超过5000亿美元。一些经济学家认为这为流入中国的热钱的代理人。但是其中的一些会反映在非投机性交易上,例如中国公司向国外放贷。因此莱特先生预计,在今年的头五个月中,中国将接获1700亿热钱,而这远远超出了之前所有新兴经济所经历的。

  
Michael Pettis, an economist at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, reckons that speculative inflows during that period were perhaps well over $200 billion, because hot money also comes into China through companies overstating FDI and over-invoicing exports. Foreign firms are bringing in more capital than they need for investment: the net inflow of FDI is 60% higher than a year ago, yet the actual use of this money for fixed investment has fallen by 6%. Some of it has been diverted elsewhere.
北京大学光华管理学院的一位经济学家迈克尔佩蒂斯估计,那段时间的投机资本可能超过2000亿美元,因为热钱也通过公司夸大外国直接投资和高报出口货价进入中国。外国公司带来了大量远远超出他们投资所需的资本:净流入的外国直接投资比一年前高出60%,而实际用做固定资产投资的却下降了6%,这些钱的一部分已经转移到了其它地方。

It is one thing to deduce how much money is coming in. It is another to work out where it is going and how it gets past China’s strict capital controls. The stockmarket, which continues to plunge (see article), is no home for hot money. Some has gone into property. The lion’s share is in bog-standard bank deposits. An interest rate of just over 4% on yuan deposits compared with 2% on dollars, combined with an expected appreciation in the yuan, offers a seemingly risk-free profit for those who can get money into China.
有一件事值得推敲:还有多少钱正在进入中国。另一点就是这些钱要去那里,它们又是如何规避中国严格的资本管制的呢?持续猛跌的股市不再是热钱的温床。一些热钱已经进入保险业,最大的一部分在银行的存款中。相比2 % 的美元存款利息,人民币存款利息刚刚超过4 %,再加上人民币升值的预期,对于可以进入把钱带进中国的人来说,这无疑提供了一个看似没有风险的利润。


  It comes in via various circuitous routes. Big Western investment funds which care about liquidity would find it hard to move money into China, although rumours abound of hedge funds that are investing money through Chinese partners. Trade and investment offers a big loophole for Chinese and foreign firms. Resident individuals can use the $50,000 annual limit for bringing money into China from abroad—many also use their friends’ and relatives’ quotas. Another big loophole lets Hong Kong residents transfer 80,000 yuan ($11,600) a day into mainland bank deposits.
热钱是通过各种迂回路线进入中国的。尽管对冲基金可通过中国合作伙伴进行投资的谣言比比皆是,但管理流动资紧的大西部基金会发现把钱弄进中国将很难。贸易和投资给中国和国外的公司提供一个巨大的漏洞。中国大陆居民可以使用每年允许从国外带入中国50000美元的限额,许多人还利用他们朋友和亲戚的限额。另一个大的漏洞是,允许香港居民1天转让8万元(1600美元)到内地的银行存款。

The government is trying to crack down, but that risks shifting the activity towards underground money exchangers. And if the government were to increase its monitoring of FDI and trade flows, the extra bureaucracy could harm the real economy. China needs to reduce the incentive for destabilising capital inflows, rather than block the channels.
中国政府正在试图打击这些行为,但同时,巨大的风险迫使这些活动转入地下钱庄交易。如果政府增加对外国直接投资和贸易流动的监管,多余的官僚主义将给经济带来损伤。中国需要减弱对不稳定资本流动形成的诱因,而不是冻结这个渠道。


Massive hot-money inflows present two dangers to China’s economy. One is that capital could suddenly flow out, as it did from other East Asian countries during the financial crisis a decade ago and Vietnam this year. China’s economy is protected by its current-account surplus and vast reserves, but its banking system would be hurt by an abrupt withdrawal.
 大规模流入的热钱目前给中国经济带来两大风险。其一,资本可能突然撤出,就像在10年前金融危机时其它东亚国家所遭遇的以及今年越南所遭遇的一样。中国经济有赖于经常性帐户赢余和巨大的外汇储备保护,但是一旦遭受资本的突然撤出,中国的银行体系将遭受重创。


A more immediate concern is that capital inflows will fuel inflation. The more foreign capital that flows in, the more dollars the central bank must buy to hold down the yuan, which, in effect, means printing money. It then mops up this excess liquidity by issuing bills (as “sterilisation”) or by lifting banks’ reserve requirements. But all this complicates monetary policy. China’s interest rates are below the inflation rate, but the PBOC fears that higher rates would attract yet more hot money and so end up adding to inflationary pressures. The central bank has instead tried to curb inflation by allowing the yuan to rise at a faster pace against the dollar—by an annual rate of 18% in the first quarter of this year. But this encouraged investors to bet on future appreciation, exacerbating capital inflows. Since April the pace of appreciation has been much reduced, in a vain effort to discourage speculators.
一个更令人担心的紧迫问题是资本流将刺激通胀。越来越多的外国资本进入中国,中国央行就要购买越来越多的美元保持人民币稳定,事实上,这就意味着将增加货币印刷,随后央行根据发行条例草案(例如冲销)来解决流动性过剩问题。但是所有的这些复杂的货币政策,中国的利率低于通胀率,但是央行害怕过高的利率将吸引更多的热钱而最终增加通胀压力。
央行反而允许人民币加快升值步伐——在今年第一季度,按年汇率计算,人民币对美元汇率增长18 %以试图遏制通胀。但是这有刺激投资者把赌注押在了未来的预期中,又加剧了资本的流动。而自从今年四月人民币升值预期大大下降以来,这对阻止投机者的努力其实是徒劳。

Mass sterilisation
Some economists argue that the problems caused by hot money have been exaggerated. After all, the PBOC has so far succeeded in sterilising most of the increase in reserves. Inflation, at an annual rate of 7.7% in May, has also started to decline, and the impact of last week’s rise in fuel prices is likely to be offset over the next couple of months by falling food-price inflation.
一些经济学家认为,热钱引发的问题被夸大了。毕竟,中国人民银行已经成功地冲销了外汇储备增长中的大部分。通胀率平均7.7%,,五月份也开始下降,并且上周燃油价格的上涨带来的影响将会被后两个月食品价格的下降抵消。

  
The snag is that money-supply growth would explode without sterilisation, which is now close to its limit. It is becoming very costly for the central bank to mop up liquidity by selling bills, so it is now relying more heavily on raising banks’ reserve requirements (the PBOC pays banks only 1.9% on their reserves, against over 4% on bills). Since January 2007 the minimum reserve ratio has been raised 16 times, from 9% to 17.5%. But it cannot climb much higher without hurting banks’ profits. To curb future inflation, China therefore needs to stem the flood of capital.
意料不到的障碍就是,不冲销的话货币供应将爆增,而冲销的数量现在已经接近极限。对央行来说,通过出售帐单来冲销流动性变得很昂贵,所以它现在更多地要依赖增加银行储备金要求(中国人民银行支付给金融机构的外汇储备只有1.9 % ,对超过4 %的法案)自从2007年一月以来,最低存款准备金率已提高16倍,从9 %至17.5 % 。但在不影响银行利润的前下,已经没有多大的上升空间,为了遏止未来的通货膨胀,因此中国需要堵住资本的洪流。



One solution would be a large one-off appreciation of the yuan so that investors no longer see it as a one-way bet. This, in turn, would give the PBOC room to raise interest rates. The snag is that the yuan would probably have to be wrenched perhaps 20% higher to alter investors’ expectations, and this is unacceptable to Chinese leaders, especially when global demand has slowed and some exporters are already being squeezed.
一个解决的办法就是使人民币一次性大量升值,这样投资者就不再将其视为单向的投注。反过来,又会给中国人民银行提高利率的空间。阻碍就是,人民币将可能要猛扭到超出20%来改变投资者的预期,而这是中国领导人将不能接受的,尤其是当全球需求放缓和一些国内的出口商已经被挤出市场的时候。

This implies that monetary policy will remain too loose. The longer that the torrent of hot money continues and interest rates remain too low, the bigger the risk that underlying inflation will creep up.  
 这意味着货币政策将继续过于宽松。低利率水平和热钱的洪流持续时间越长,潜在的通胀风险不知不觉将越来越大。
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发表于 2010-4-28 22:50 | 显示全部楼层
现在的新人都这么厉害,一上手都是长篇巨制~~
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:20 | 显示全部楼层
Capital inflows to China 热钱涌向/涌入中国 或者"热线流入,集结中国"
Despite strict capital controls, China is being flooded by the biggest wave of speculative capital ever to hit an emerging economy
尽管资金管制严格,中国正承受着迄今为止针对新兴经济体的投机资本,规模最为庞大浪潮的冲击.

shrink 这里意译"减少"吧~~
net foreign-currency  外汇净收益
Logan Wright, a Beijing-based analyst at Stone & McCarthy, an economic-research firm, has done some statistical detective work to make sense of the figures.

斯通麦肯锡经济研究公司北京办事处的分析师罗根莱特开展了一些统计研究来探究这些数据背后的真相.
Deducting 剔除
property 房地产

loophole 机会
mops up 抵减/冲减
Mass sterilisation 漏译: 大幅降低/冲减流动性 (意译吧~~)
a large one-off appreciation  一次性大幅升值
The longer that the torrent of hot money continues and interest rates remain too low, the bigger the risk that underlying inflation will creep up.  
低息利率和热钱流入持续的时间越长,不知不觉中潜在通胀的风险就将越来越大.
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:50 | 显示全部楼层
热钱涌入和过低(too low)利率持续的时间越长,潜在通货膨胀加剧(creep up 引申为加剧)的风险也就越大。
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:20 | 显示全部楼层
1 has done some statistical detective work to make sense of the figures  做了一些统计探究的工作以解读这些数据。
鄙人认为这里的detective 的翻译应该靠近statistical理解,make sense译为解读也再次和前面的detective相呼应会好一点。
2 The reserve figures have also been reduced in book-keeping terms this year by the PBOC “asking” banks to use dollars to pay for the extra reserves that they are now required to hold at the central bank.  为了力挺央行,中国人民银行 “登高一呼”,让各界银行使用美元去填平额外储备金,才导致了今年储备款额的账面缩水。
鄙人认为应该注重翻译ask的意译和政局的逻辑关系
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:50 | 显示全部楼层
3 Deducting investment income and the increase in the value of non-dollar reserves as the dollar has fallen still leaves an unexplained residual of $214 billion  在美元储备跌落的事后,扣除投资进款和非美元储备增值,仍有多达214亿美元的巨额无处归属
4 Some economists use this as a proxy for hot-money inflows 一些经济学者取此为热钱流入的标志
5 Some has gone into property. The lion’s share is in bog-standard bank deposits 一部分已经成为了可据财富,而最大的一部分热钱却无所作为地泥陷于银行存款。
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发表于 2010-4-29 01:20 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢各位指点    错误 纰漏不少  我今后要下苦功夫学习啊
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发表于 2010-4-29 01:50 | 显示全部楼层
[:cheeky:]
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:20 | 显示全部楼层
According to leaked official figures, China’s foreign-exchange reserves jumped by $115 billion during April and May, to $1.8 trillion.
根据官方披露的数据,在今年四月份到五月份期间,中国的外汇储备为1.8万亿,减少了1150亿美元。

I think this should be "增加".

:D
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:50 | 显示全部楼层
央行就是中国人民银行啊。
何来“为了力挺央行,中国人民银行 “登高一呼”,”?
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