大家论坛

 找回密码
 注册
查看: 756|回复: 7

[经济学人] [2008.05.01]Ben's bind美国人的绷带

[复制链接]

257

主题

8096

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20013
发表于 2010-4-29 03:00 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Global monetary policy
全球货币政策

Ben's bind 美国人的绷带
May 1st 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition


Disentangling the links between the Fed, the falling dollar and the soaring price of the world's commodities  分解美联储、贬值的美元及世界商品价格飞涨之间的关系

                                  Illustration by Satoshi Kambayashi


THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week. “Oh Lord, let us stop cutting interest rates, but not yet,” is pretty much what America's central bankers decided on April 30th. The Fed's governors cut their policy rate by another quarter-point, to 2%. But the accompanying statement gave a small hint that they may now pause.

本周St Augustine的精神一直萦绕着联邦储备局。“哦,上帝让我们停止降息吧,但是不是现在”这就是美国中央银行家在4月30日的决定。美联储官员将其政策利息降低了另一个四分之一点至2%。但是所附带的声明给出了一个小暗示联邦可能现在停止降息。

There are plenty of reasons to stop cutting. Real interest rates are now firmly negative. Although the housing market continues to contract—the latest figures show sales falling, prices tumbling and the number of vacant homes soaring—the economy is limping rather than slumping. According to initial GDP estimates released on April 30th, output grew at an annualised rate of 0.6% in the first three months of the year—the same pace as in the previous quarter and faster than most people expected. The mix of growth was not good. Final sales fell while firms built up their stocks, which bodes ill for future output. But with tax-rebate cheques arriving in the mail, a dose of fiscal stimulus is imminent.

有很多理由停止降息。真实利率现在完全是负值了。虽然房地产市场继续签约成交——但最新数字显示销售降低、价格暴跌及空房数字飙升——经济正处于疲软而不是衰退。根据4月30日公布的初步GDP估计数字,今年前三个月的产量年增长率为0.6%——与前一个季度相同,比大多数人预计的高。综合增长率不好。最终销售量下跌,而公司却增大其库存,这显示了将来产量的不正常。但是随着减税支票的寄出,一剂财政刺激也迫在眉睫。

growing chorus worries that ever lower policy rates are adding to America's problems. Some prominent economists, including Martin Feldstein of Harvard University and Bill Gross of PIMCO, a big money-management firm, have urged the central bank to stop. Fed cuts, they argue, are doing little to reduce borrowing costs but have sent commodity prices soaring—fuelling inflation and hitting Americans' wallets hard.

不断增多的一致声调是不断降低的政策利率在增加美国的问题。一些著名的经济学家,包括哈佛大学的Martin Feldstein、PIMCO(一家大型货币管理公司)的Bill Gross,催促中央银行停止减息。他们认为美联储减息对减少借贷费用起效很小,但一直使商品价格飙升——激起通货膨胀而使美国人的钱夹受到猛烈打击。

Thanks to the credit crunch, Fed loosening plainly packs less punch than hitherto. Lending standards are tightening across the board. The cost of a 30-year mortgage has risen over the past six months, even as short-term rates have tumbled. But monetary policy has not been impotent. One route through which it has worked has been the weaker dollar. Although the greenback has been sliding for over five years, the pace of decline stepped up as the Fed slashed rates. Since August the dollar has fallen by 7% against a broad basket of currencies and 13% against the euro. Together with strong global growth, this weakness has cushioned and reoriented America's economy. Strong foreign earnings have boosted corporate profits. Strong exports have countered the weakness in construction. Exclude oil, and America's current-account deficit has shrunk to an eight-year low of 2.4% of GDP.

由于信用危境,美联储采用了迄今最为宽松的政策。贷款标准正在全面加紧。即使短期利率急剧下降, 30年抵押贷款的成本在过去六个月还是在上升。但是货币政策并非一直无效。货币政策籍以生效的一个途径是走弱的美元。虽然在过去五年间美元一直在下滑,但是随着美联储大幅度减息,美元下降的速度不断加速。自8月份以来,美元相对于一篮子货币下降了7%,相对于欧元下降了13%。伴随着强大的全球经济增长,美元疲软减缓了对美国经济的冲击并为美国经济重新定向。巨大的国外收益提高了企业的利润。强劲的出口在建筑方面遭遇了疲软。排除石油,那么美国的经常帐户赤字减少至八年来最低,即GDP的2.4%。

But oil—and other commodities—are the crux of the problem. In the past, economic weakness in America has usually pushed the price of oil and other commodities down. That relationship has weakened thanks to demand growth in big commodity-intensive emerging economies. But the recent surprise is that commodity prices have soared even as America's economy has stalled and forecasts for global growth have been trimmed as well. No one expects global growth to accelerate this year, yet the price of crude oil is up 20% since the beginning of the year, The Economist's overall commodity-price index is up 18%, the metals index is up 24%, and the food-price index is up 18%. Supply shocks—from drought in Australia to strikes at Nigerian oil wells—are clearly part of the problem. But the fact that prices have soared across so many commodities suggests a common cause.

但是石油及其它商品是问题的症结。过去,美国经济疲软通常使石油和其它商品的价格降低。由于大型商品密集新型经济的需求增长,这种关系一直在减弱。但是最近令人吃惊的是,即使美国经济停滞不前以及全球增长预测也一直在降低,商品价格却在飙升。没有人希望今年全球增长加速,然而原油价格自今年初上涨了20%;的整体商品价格指数上涨18%;金属指数上涨24%;食品价格指数上涨18%。供应方面的冲击(从澳大利亚干旱到尼日利亚石油井罢工)很明显是问题的一部份原因。但是诸多商品价格飞涨的事实显示了一个共同的原因。

Could the culprit be the Fed? Advocates of this idea point to two channels. First, by slashing real interest rates, the Fed has encouraged speculation in commodities by reducing the cost of holding inventories. Second, by pushing down the dollar, Fed looseness is pushing up the price of dollar-denominated commodities.

美联储是罪魁祸首吗?这一观点的拥护者指出了两个渠道。首先,通过大幅度减少实际利率,联邦鼓励了籍减少在库存方面的成本而进行商品的投机;其次,通过使美元贬值,美联储宽松政策正在推动美元导向商品价格的上涨。

Jeff Frankel, a Harvard economist, has long argued that low real interest rates lead to higher commodity prices. When real rates fall, he points out, commodity producers have more incentive to keep their asset—whether crude oil, gold or grain—in the ground or in a silo, than to sell today. Speculators, in turn, have more incentive to shift into commodities. There is no doubt that commodities have become an increasingly popular investment category—in fact they bear many of the hallmarks of a speculative bubble. But inventories for many commodities, particularly grains, are unusually low.

美国哈佛大学经济学家Jeff Frankel长期以来一直认为低实际利率导致较的高商品价格。他指出当实际利率下降,商品生产商有更多的动机保存其资产,无论是原油、黄金或谷物,将之保存在地下或粮库中,而不是现在卖掉。相反投机商有更多的动机进入商品行业。毫无疑问商品已成为越来越热门的投资类别——事实上,商品显示出了很多投机泡沫的特征。但是很多商品的库存尤其是谷物的库存通常是很低的。



What about the dollar link? Chakib Khelil, president of the Organisation of Petroleum-Exporting Countries, argued this week that oil could reach $200 a barrel largely because the market was being driven by the dollar's slide. Movements in the euro/dollar exchange rate and the price of oil have become extremely close (see chart). An analysis by Jens Nordvig and Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs shows that the correlation between weekly changes in the oil price and the euro/dollar exchange rate has risen from 1% between 1999 and 2004 to 52% in the past six months.

与美元的关联性?石油出口国组织主席Chakib Khelil本周称,石油很大程度上能达到200美元一桶,因为石油市场正在受到美元下滑的驱动。欧元/美元外汇比率的移动与石油价格的移动一直及其接近(见图)。Goldman Sachs的Jens Nordvig和Jeffrey Currie进行的一个分析显示石油价格周变化与欧元/美元外汇比率周变化之间的联系已从1999至2004年间的1%上升到过去六个月中的52%。

That link is partly a matter of accounting. If the dollar falls, the dollar price of a commodity must rise for its overall price—in terms of a basket of global currencies—to remain stable. But commodity prices have risen even when priced in non-dollar currencies. And the correlation between changes in the price of oil and the euro/dollar exchange rate has risen even when oil is priced in a basket of currencies, such as the IMF's special drawing rights.

该关联性部分上是会计的原因。如果美元下降,商品的美元价格相对于其整体价格(就一篮子全球货币而言)必须上升以保持稳定。但是商品价格一直在上升,即使是以非美元货币所定的价格。并且石油价格变化与欧元/美元外汇比率变化之间的联系一直在上升,即使石油是以一篮子货币所定的价格,比如IMF的特别提款权。

So is the weaker dollar driving oil prices up or are high oil prices driving the dollar down? The Goldman analysts argue the latter. Dearer oil is pushing the dollar down, they claim, because oil exporters import more from Europe than America and hold less of their oil revenues in dollars. A second factor lies with central banks. Because the Fed focuses on “core” inflation (which excludes food and fuel), whereas the ECB targets overall inflation, America's central bank runs a looser policy in response to higher oil prices, thus pushing the dollar down.

因此是走弱的美元驱动石油价格上涨还是高石油价格驱动美元下跌?Goldman分析家认为是后者。他们称昂贵的汽油推动美元下跌,因为石油出口商从对欧洲的进口比对美国的进口多,从而只有较少的石油收入以美元形式持有;第二个因素在于中央银行。因为美联储集中于“核心”通货膨胀(不包括食品和燃油),而欧洲央行目标是整体通货膨胀,所以美国的中央银行运行一个较宽松的政策响应较高的石油价格,因此推动美元下降。

Another reason to suspect that the Fed is more than a bit player is that American interest-rate decisions have a disproportionate effect on global monetary conditions. Some emerging economies still peg their currencies to the dollar; many others have been reluctant to let their exchange rates rise enough to make up for the dollar's decline. As a result, monetary conditions in many emerging markets remain too loose. This fuels domestic demand, pushing up pressure on prices, particularly of commodities. All of which suggests that the Fed's decisions are propagated widely through the dollar.

怀疑美联储不只是一个跑龙套的另一个原因是美国利率决定对全球货币环境造成不成比例的影响。一些新兴经济仍然用美元作为其各种货币的标准;很多其它新兴经济一直艰难将其兑换比率上升到足以弥补美元的下降。结果是很多新型市场的货币环境很宽松。这种情况激起国内需求,增加了价格方面的压力,尤其是商品价格方面的。所有这些显示出美联储的决定通过美元得以广泛推广。

The most recent circumstantial evidence also suggests that the Fed may bear some responsibility for the commodities boom. The dollar slipped after the Fed's rate-cut decision as investors reacted to its doveish tone, though at $1.56 per euro, it was still up 2.6% from its low of $1.60 on April 22nd. The price of oil, after hitting a record high of almost $120 a barrel on April 28th, had tumbled to $113 on April 30th. But the price of crude and other commodities rose afterwards. If those reactions persist, America's central bankers may have to reflect carefully.

最近的间接证据还显示美联储可能对商品繁荣具有一些责任。虽然投资者对其温和基调作出了反应(尽管只是每欧元兑换$1.56,但仍相对于4月22日的$1.60的最低点上涨2.6%),但是美元在美联储减息决定后还是下滑了。石油价格在4月28日创下将近$120一桶的记录后,在4月30日暴跌至$113。但是原油价格和其它商品价格之后又上涨了。如果这些反应持续的话,美国的中央银行家可能不得不认真思考了。
回复

使用道具 举报

207

主题

8286

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20583
发表于 2010-4-29 03:10 | 显示全部楼层
希望楼主的排版认真一点,格式请参考别人的帖子,花不了1分钟的时间。
排版太乱,读者也无心看下去。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

207

主题

7992

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士生

Rank: 21Rank: 21Rank: 21

积分
19791
发表于 2010-4-29 03:20 | 显示全部楼层
中央银行,不是中英银行。
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

227

主题

8293

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20790
发表于 2010-4-29 03:30 | 显示全部楼层
太长了吧?!辛苦了!!
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

177

主题

7973

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士生

Rank: 21Rank: 21Rank: 21

积分
19831
发表于 2010-4-29 03:40 | 显示全部楼层
首句中的disentangling最好不要翻成“分解”,可以是 “分析”或者“解开……之迷”,我看到“分解美联储”这句时吓一跳,还以为美联储这么不济,沦落到被分解的地步,:lol
    THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week.中的spirit应该翻译成“主旨”,会比较符合。
    The Fed's governors cut their policy rate by another quarter-point, to 2%.————美联储官员又将其政策利率降了四分之一个百分点,现在的政策利率是2%。
    the pace of decline stepped up as the Fed slashed rates————但是随着美联储的大副降息,美元贬值的速度也不断加快。
    No one expects global growth to accelerate this year————没有人希望今年全球经济增长加速。
    the Fed has encouraged speculation in commodities by reducing the cost of holding inventories ————美联储通过降低持有成本来鼓励商品投机。
    Fed looseness is pushing up the price of dollar-denominated commodities.————美联储的宽松政策导致与美元直接挂钩的商品价格上涨。


时间有限,今天只校了一半,明天继续:loveliness:
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

843

主题

8768

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
23054
发表于 2010-4-29 03:50 | 显示全部楼层
this week that oil could reach $200 a barrel largely because the market was being driven by the dollar's slide————本周石油价格能够攀升至200美元一桶,很大程度上是因为石油市场受到美元贬值的驱动。
If the dollar falls, the dollar price of a commodity must rise for its overall price—in terms of a basket of global currencies—to remain stable————如果美元贬值,那么根据一篮子全球货币,为了使商品整体价格保持稳定,其美元价格必须上升。
But commodity prices have risen even when priced in non-dollar currencies————但即使是以不与美元直接挂钩的货币来标价的商品,其价格也上升了。
because oil exporters import more from Europe than America and hold less of their oil revenues in dollars————因为石油出口国从欧洲获得的收益大于美国,以美元形式持有的石油收入较少。
(which excludes food and fuel)————即不包括食品和能源方面的通货膨胀。这句话是一个名词解释,说明什么叫做“核心”通货膨胀,要解释完整。
whereas the ECB targets overall inflation。其中的target不要简单的翻译成目标,结合语境应该翻译成“注重的是……”会比较通顺。
The most recent circumstantial evidence also suggests that the Fed may bear some responsibility for the commodities boom.————最近环境证据也表明,美联储要为商品价格的飚升负上一部分的责任。

楼主辛苦了,翻译这么长的文章,:handshake 但我觉得最重要的是译完后的审查工作,至少要看上一遍自己翻译的中文,看看前后句是否连贯通顺,或者有没有错别字什么的,可能翻译的时候是照着字面意思翻,但之后就要联系全文的意思来对译文进行修改,使其更加流畅。一篇支离破碎的译文只会毁了之前付出的大量时间和心血,说这么多不是要指责楼主,只是希望楼主能抱着精益求精的态度,这样翻译的水平才能更快的提高哦。楼主继续加油啊
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

271

主题

8365

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20832
发表于 2010-4-29 04:00 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢编审这么认真,翻译后发现怀孕了,所以好长时间没上网了,也没再细看文章.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

202

主题

8175

帖子

3万

金币

大家网博士后

Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22Rank: 22

积分
20267
发表于 2010-4-29 04:10 | 显示全部楼层
怀孕实在没精力,粗看了楼上的指正,有几处不敢苟同

THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week.中的spirit应该翻译成“主旨”,会比较符合。
我认为:还是用精神比较好.原因:圣奥思定(公元354—430)是罗马末期的北非主教,是早期教会史上伟大的神学家、哲学家、文学家,对天主教文化的影响仅次于圣保禄。一生著作三百多种,其中《忏悔录》主要代表作。这本书带有自传的性质,记述了他一生的思想转变历程,表达了他对宗教、哲学、时间、人生的看法.

this week that oil could reach $200 a barrel largely because the market was being driven by the dollar's slide————本周石油价格能够攀升至200美元一桶,很大程度上是因为石油市场受到美元贬值的驱动。

石油现在还没到200美圆一桶呢!!

If the dollar falls, the dollar price of a commodity must rise for its overall price—in terms of a basket of global currencies—to remain stable————如果美元贬值,那么根据一篮子全球货币,为了使商品整体价格保持稳定,其美元价格必须上升。

楼上的再分析一下句子语法吧

because oil exporters import more from Europe than America and hold less of their oil revenues in dollars————因为石油出口国从欧洲获得的收益大于美国,以美元形式持有的石油收入较少。

The most recent circumstantial evidence also suggests that the Fed may bear some responsibility for the commodities boom.————最近环境证据也表明,美联储要为商品价格的飚升负上一部分的责任。

也请楼上的再考虑考虑.

总之,也感谢楼上的指正,只是希望指正是一个团队的结果而不是个人的结果.
回复 支持 反对

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则



诚聘英才|移动端|Archiver|版权声明|大家论坛 ( 京ICP备06071611号,京公网安备11010802018363号 )

GMT+8, 2019-11-14 17:05 , Processed in 0.165806 second(s), 8 queries , Redis On.

Powered by Discuz!

© Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表