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[经济学人] [2011.10.29] The war is over 西班牙恐怖主义:止战之殇

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发表于 2011-11-4 17:32 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Terrorism in Spain
西班牙的恐怖主义

The war is over
止战之殇


After 40 years of bloodshed, ETA throws in the towel
流血40年,巴斯克分裂主义者运动组织(ETA)终于认输



A brighter Basque future, with luck
巴斯克人的未来更加光明,更加幸运

WHEN ETA broke off a ceasefire in 2007, Jesús Eguiguren, a Basque negotiating on behalf of the Spanish government, warned his separatist counterpart, Francisco Javier López Peña, that his destiny was to spend years in jail. “And you should buy black ties,” Mr López Peña retorted, for the funerals of future victims of the Basque terror organisation.

2007年,ETA中止熄火,代表西班牙政府出面谈判的巴斯克人赫苏斯•埃及古伦警告分裂分子的谈判代表弗朗西斯科•哈维尔•洛佩斯•培尼亚,他注定会有数年的牢狱之灾。而洛佩斯•培尼亚则反唇相讥:“你应该去买黑色的领带。”出席巴斯克恐怖组织将来造成的受害者的葬礼。

Both men were right. ETA killed ten times over the next three years. Mr Eguiguren was pall-bearer at the funeral of Isaías Carrasco, his friend and fellow Basque Socialist. But in 2008 Mr López Peña, then ETA’s leader, was captured in France.

他们两个人说的都没错。接下去的三年中,ETA进行了10次杀戮。在朋友兼巴斯克社会主义者同伴伊萨亚斯•卡拉斯科的葬礼上,埃及古伦担任了护柩者。但是2008年,时任ETA头目的洛佩斯•培尼亚在法国被捕。

On October 20th, one of Mr López Peña’s successors—believed to be a former lawyer called David Pla—donned a beret and a white face-mask and filmed a statement in which he announced a definitive end to ETA’s 40 years of terrorism. For Spain, it was an historic moment. A bloody campaign that began under Franco’s military dictatorship and claimed 829 lives was finished. “The nightmare is over,” declared Iñigo Urkullu, head of the Basque country’s biggest party, the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV).

洛佩斯的继任者之一名为戴维•普拉,据称,他曾是一名律师。10月20日,普拉戴上了贝雷帽和白色面具,将自己的陈词拍摄成电影。陈词中,他宣称ETA进行了40年的恐怖活动,最终必将走向终点。对于西班牙来说,这是一个历史性的时刻。始于佛朗哥军事独裁时期的血腥运动造成了829人的死亡,现在终于可以终结了。巴斯克地区最大党派领袖伊尼戈•尔科勒说:“噩梦结束了。”该党派是一个中立的巴斯克民族党(PNV)。

One reason ETA has downed arms is that hardliners like Mr López Peña are behind bars. Another is that the campaign of terror he had planned failed to happen. Several of his successors were detained in a series of joint Spanish-French police operations. ETA became virtually inoperative. Ten killings in three years was paltry by its standards. “Spanish democracy has defeated ETA,” declared Antonio Camacho, the interior minister.

ETA放下武器的理由之一就是,像洛佩斯那样的死硬派蹲监狱了。另一个原因是,他计划实施恐怖活动但未遂。在一系列西班牙和法国警方共同行动中,洛佩斯的几个继任者被监禁。这样,ETA实际上就只剩下一个空架子了。3年进行10次杀戮行动在ETA的标准中可谓微不足道。内政部长安东尼奥•卡马乔声称:“西班牙的民主战胜了ETA。”

Yet it is too early to write ETA’s obituary. It has neither disarmed nor disbanded. A violent breakaway group, similar to the Real IRA in Northern Ireland, could emerge. ETA has asked for talks with Spain and France. This, it says, is how “armed confrontation” can be finally overcome.

然而,现在就宣告ETA的覆灭还为时尚早,该组织既未缴械也未解散,有可能出现一个新分离出去的暴力组织,就像北爱尔兰的真爱尔兰共和军那样。ETA要求同西班牙和法国进行谈判,并称,“武装对抗”只有通过这种途径才能消除。

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s Socialist prime minister, deserves credit for dragging ETA this far. But the job of negotiating with the group will fall to his successor, after a general election on November 20th. That will almost certainly be Mariano Rajoy, whose conservative People’s Party (PP) looks set to win a landslide.

西班牙社会主义的首相何塞•路易斯•罗德里格斯•萨帕特罗在拖延ETA的行动中颇有贡献。但是11月20日大选之后,同该组织谈判的任务将落到其继任者的肩上。当选者很有可能是马里亚诺•拉霍伊,他所在的人民党(PP)是一个保守党派,极有可能赢得压倒性的胜利。





Talking to ETA is “a betrayal of the dead,” Mr Rajoy once said. But so far he has displayed moderation. “This is a great piece of news,” he said, before calling for ETA’s dissolution. When Spaniards start to enjoy a peace dividend in the form of lower security costs and higher tourism receipts in the Basque country, pressure will build to sort out the remaining issues.

拉霍伊曾说,与ETA谈判是“对死者的背叛”。但是目前为止他对此事的态度还比较缓和。在呼吁解散ETA之前,他曾说:“这是一个重大新闻。”当西班牙人开始享受以低安保支出和高旅游收入为形式的和平时期公共事业经费时,解决残留问题的压力逐渐形成。

Concessions to ETA’s demand for a separate Basque state are out. But the government could take other steps, such as moving some of the 700 ETA prisoners in Spanish and French prisons closer to the Basque country, or exercising leniency on day- and early-release programmes. Still, ETA is not in a strong bargaining position. Mass prisoner-release programmes, if they ever come, must wait. The problem of ETA members in hiding, like Mr Pla, is trickier. Most Spaniards want to see them in court. They may prefer to be exiled to a beach somewhere in the Caribbean.

ETA要求分裂巴斯克州,对此要求不再做出妥协,但政府应该采取其他措施,比如将西班牙和法国监狱中700名ETA罪犯移交到距离巴斯克地区较近的地方,或者发发慈悲,实行日缓刑或者提前释放计划。ETA在谈判中仍处于下风,即使有大规模的释放计划,也要假以时日。关于ETA成员藏匿的问题则更加棘手,比如普拉。大部分西班牙人希望看到他们被法庭审判,他们则宁可被流放到加勒比海沿岸的某个地方。

ETA’s arms, hidden in France and the Basque country, must inevitably be given up, says Brian Currin, a South African lawyer. The PP has denounced his fellow “mediators”, including Kofi Annan, a former UN secretary-general, as unwelcome meddlers. Mr Rajoy may, however, need them to oversee a discreet disarmament process.

一位南美律师布莱恩•卡林说,显然,ETA必须放弃他们藏在法国和巴斯克地区的武器。人民党公开指责他的调停伙伴,包括前联合国秘书长科菲•安南。这些干涉者并不受欢迎。然而,拉霍伊需要这些人来监督谨慎的缴械行动。

A separate demand comes from the politicians who led ETA away from violence. Banned front parties, like Batasuna, want to be allowed back into mainstream politics. A coalition they linked up with, Bildu, won 26% of Basque votes in municipal elections in May, suggesting that it has much to gain from Spanish democracy. Mr Rajoy will come under pressure to respond. All this will take years but, happily for the long-suffering Basques, there is no taste for turning back.

一些引导ETA拜托暴力的政客则提出了另一些要求。被取缔的阵线党派,比如巴塔苏纳党,希望能够重回主流政坛。5月,联合这些党派的的联盟比尔度在市级选举中赢得26%巴斯克人的选票,这表明,该联盟从西班牙的民主中获益良多。要对此作出回应,拉霍伊表示很有压力。所有这些行动需要几年的时间,但是对饱经折磨的巴斯克人来说,重蹈覆辙已经没有任何意义了。
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发表于 2011-11-17 23:32 | 显示全部楼层
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