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发表于 2011-11-29 14:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 inundate 于 2011-11-29 15:02 编辑

Weak Bond Sale Tests Germany’s Stature in Crisis
国债发行遇冷撼动德国地位

FRANKFURT — Germany’s stature as an island of stability in the European debt crisis was shaken Wednesday when it fell far short of selling all the government bonds it put up for auction.
法兰克福报道-因周三未能将拍卖的国债全部售出,欧债危机中德国安全岛的地位被撼动。

Investors are beginning to question whether there are any havens left in Europe after German bonds, which the government uses to raise money for operations, got a surprisingly bad reception. The sale — more than one-third of the bonds found no buyers — helped push down stocks and contributed to the atmosphere of fear that prevails among the countries, including Germany, that share euro currency.
在作为政府为其运作筹集资金的主要方式--德国国债意外遭受冷遇此后,投资者开始怀疑,欧洲是否还有避风港存在。此次标售中,超过1/3的债券未能找到买主,这使得股市下挫,恐惧气氛在包括德国在内的共享欧元的国家中蔓延。

While analysts cautioned against reading too much into a single bond auction, the weak auction was at the very least a blow to the prestige of Germany, whose economic strength has enabled it to largely dictate how the euro region will cope with the debt crisis.
虽然分析者告诫不要对一次公债竞投深究,拍卖遇冷至少给德国的威望一击,他的经济实力让他能对欧元区如何应对欧债危机颐指气使。

And there is a growing sense in the region that unless the European Central Bank and big euro members like Germany and France agree to take major action to prop up the region’s finances, the euro-currency union itself could start to crumble. The debt crisis has toppled five governments, including Italy and Greece, by raising those countries’ borrowing costs to dangerously high levels. And now the crisis is prompting many investors to pull money out of the euro region altogether.
在欧元区,人们不断意识到,除非欧洲中央银行和诸如德法之类的欧元成员允诺为支持该区经济采取重大行动,否则欧元货币联盟自身将开始崩溃。由于一些成员国借贷成本增加达到高危水平,这场债务危机使得包括意大利和希腊在内的五个国家政府摇摇欲坠。如今,危机促使许多投资者一起从欧元区撤资。

Until now, Germany has been able to point to its solid economy and low debt as proof that public spending cuts — austerity — are the answer to the region’s debt crisis. And it has been the loudest opponent of proposals for the European Central Bank to help shore up weaker economies by serving as lender of last resort to national governments.
迄今为止,德国尚以其经济稳和负债低为证,力指削减公共支出,即财政紧缩是是应对区域债务危机的法宝。并且德国一直强烈反对欧洲央行来充当最后贷款人扶植较弱经济体。


But if investor faith in Germany slips, its moral authority could weaken, too.
但如果投资者对德国的信心下滑,它的影响力也会减弱。

“Losing that bargaining power could be massive for Germany,” said Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. “That is one of the pillars on which Germany has based its policy approach.”“对德国来说失去那种谈判能力犹如晴天霹雳,”苏格兰皇家银行的经济学家希尔维尔•佩鲁佐称,“这是德国政治方针的支柱”。
Germany on Wednesday had sought to raise as much as 6 billion euros ($8 billion) in an auction of 10-year bonds. But it was able to sell only 3.9 billion euros worth, Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, reported.
德国中央银行布达斯巴克报道,周三,在10年期债券的竞售中德国本想筹集60亿欧元(80亿美元),但最终只有39亿欧元被认购。
Another few bad auctions, Mr. Peruzzo said, “could shift the debate to, ‘The austerity is too strong, we need growth.’ ”
佩鲁佐先生说,“再多几次不成功的竞售,争论就可能转向 ‘紧缩政策力度太大,我们需要发展’”。

Already, signs that many of the euro region’s 17 countries are on the verge of economic recession has been challenging the wisdom of Germany’s austerity prescription.
先前,已经有迹象表明该区域17个国家中许多已在经济萧条的边缘,这种使人们质疑德国紧缩对策的明智性。

On Wednesday, the European Commission, the executive agency for the 27-nation European Union, proposed measures for addressing the debt crisis in the 17-country subset of members that share the euro currency. The proposals included issuing, for the first time, bonds backed by all the countries of the euro zone — a measure that, despite German opposition, is gaining acceptance as a means of market reassurance as the crisis persists.
周三,欧盟27国执行机构——欧盟委员会提出17个欧元区成员债务危机的解决方案,其中首次提到发行由欧元区所有国家共同担保的债券,在危机持续蔓延的情况下,尽管德国反对,这项措施作为稳定市场的工具还是得到了认可。

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, during a budget debate Wednesday in Berlin, reiterated her opposition to the creation of the bonds. But she has not completely ruled out the possibility of issuing bonds based on collective euro zone obligations at some future date.在柏林的一场预算案之争中,德国总理默克尔重申她反对发行共同债券。但是她不排除在将来某天基于共同义务发行欧元区债券的可能性。

The disappointing German auction on Wednesday could be a signal that that future might be coming sooner than many had been expecting.
周三那场标售结果让人失望,这或许是个信号,预示着未来比人们预计的来得更快。

Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds Banking in London, described the disappointing German auction as “a pretty significant buyers’ strike.”
伦敦莱斯银行市场策划部主管查尔斯•丹贝尔将令人扫兴的德国竞卖形容为“购买者的一次大罢工”。

“Seeing as these are supposedly the safe-haven asset of choice, people are concluding that the risk is becoming systemic,” Mr. Diebel said.
迪贝尔先生说,或许这么选是为了让资产免受风险,人们由此推断,风险越来越系统化了。

The low demand, he said, may indicate that investors increasingly expect Germany and the European Central Bank, which together would bear a large financial portion of a major euro zone bailout, “to go all in and support the euro.”
需求低也许表明投资者越来越希望德国和欧洲央行一起,对核心欧元区大部分国家实施紧急援助, “全身投入并支持欧元”。

By that thinking, investors might have concluded that the relatively low yield, or interest rates, on the German bonds — Wednesday’s auctioned bonds were priced at an average yield of 1.98 percent — were not worth the potential risk that Germany’s economy could soon be strained by the demands of bailing out Italy or Spain or other big debt-saddled euro union members.
出于这种想法,投资者也许认为德国国债的收益或利率相对较低,周三的标售以平均收益率1.98%定价,与其潜在的风险不相当,不值得冒险,帮意大利、西班牙、或是其他债台高筑的欧盟成员国摆脱困境的需求如此之高,德国的经济也许很快受此所制。

Such strains could send German bond yields much higher than Wednesday’s offering.
由于这种限制的存在,周三发行的德国国债本该有更高的收益。

For comparison’s sake, yields on 10-year bonds offered by the United States Treasury, which continue to be considered a global haven, are about 1.9 percent.
与此相比,美国财政部发行的十年期国债的收益率约为1.9%,那里仍被看做是全球的避风港。

Mr. Diebel said that the failure of Germany and the European Central Bank to take significant steps to address the region’s debt crisis would mean “the risk of a euro breakup increases.”
迪贝尔先生称,德国和欧洲央行未能采取有效措施应对欧元区的债务危机,这将意味着欧元解体的风险加大。

But it is also possible to argue that German bonds could gain value in case of a breakup, which would force Germany to reintroduce its own currency. Economists agree that the euro is weaker against other major currencies than the German deutsche mark would be.
但是也有可能,一旦欧元崩溃,德国国债也许会增值,这将迫使德国再次启用自己的货币。经济学家认为与其他主要的货币币种相比,欧元不如德国马克坚挺。

German officials sought to play down the significance of Wednesday’s bond auction. The sale was one of nine this year that fell short of demand, said Jörg Müller, a spokesman for the German Finance Agency, which administers bond sales.
德国官员力图对周三公债标售轻描淡写。债券销售的管理者,德国金融署发言人耶格•缪勒称此次标售是九次中第一次需求不足。

“It’s routine,” he said, adding that demand often tails off toward the end of the year. He said the excess bonds would be sold on the open market, and would not lead to any funding shortages for the government.
“这很平常”,他说,补充道,临近年底需求会缩小。他说多余的债券会在市场上公售,对于政府,这不会引起政府任何的资金不足。

But if shortfalls in German bond auctions are routine, few have seen such a big gap — 35 percent — between the size of the offering and the number actually sold. In April and August auctions, for example, the shortfall was only 19 percent.
但是,若德国的公债标售中有差额是家常便饭,但是发行量和实际销售量之间差额为35%,缺口如此之大,实属少见,比方说,在四月和八月的的标售中,差额仅为19%。

Mr. Peruzzo, of Royal Bank of Scotland, said he thought only a minority of investors had doubts about Germany. But he added that market sentiment was so fragile in Europe that confidence could begin to crumble anyway.
苏格兰皇家银行的佩鲁佐先生说,他认为只有少数投资者对德国存有疑虑。但是他补充欧洲市场情绪如此不稳,以至于任何方式都能信心崩塌。

“The debate will quickly switch to, ‘Is this the start of credit erosion of Germany?’ ” Mr. Peruzzo said.
“争论将很快变成,‘这是德国信用危机的开始么’”佩鲁佐先生称。

Some Wall Street analysts viewed the German bond auction as a wake-up call.
一些华尔街的分析者吧德国的公债竞投看成是提醒信号。

“Investors sent a very strong message to Frankfurt: ‘You’re not immune from the fallout, and it’s time that you do something about it,’ ” said Andrew Wilkinson, the chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Company in New York.
纽约米勒塔巴克公司的首席经济战略家安德鲁•威尔金森称,“投资者给法兰克福强烈留言‘你不可能对免受影响的,现在是你做些什么的时候了。”

Stephen A. Walsh, the chief investment officer for Western Asset Management, in New York, asked, “Can you imagine if a U.S. Treasury auction failed?
纽约西方资产管理公司的首席投资官斯蒂芬A沃尔什问,“你能想象美国财政部竞卖失败会怎样?”

“As the dominoes have fallen, with sovereign government debt not priced like it has credit risk,” Mr. Walsh said, “the last domino is the U.S. Treasury and the second-to-last has been German bunds.” He was using the German term for bonds.
“在多米诺骨牌倒下的那一刻,主权国政府的债务并没有像信用危机时那样标价”,沃尔什先生说,“最后一张多米诺骨牌是美国财政部,而倒数第二张是德国国债。”他使用德国来描述国债。

In the first steps toward the closer political and financial integration that many have come to believe is essential for the euro’s survival, the European Commission on Wednesday went beyond floating the idea of euro bonds. It also proposed that countries surrender more power over their finances to the European authorities, giving Brussels the right to request a rewrite of spending plans that seem too profligate.
欧盟在本周三会议上已不仅局限在17国共同发行欧元债券上,很多人开始相信推动财政一体化的方案对欧元区的转危为安是至关重要的。也有提议称各个国家应多放一些金融权利给欧洲当局,以使欧盟有权要求改写支出计划,此支出计划看起来挥霍过度。

“Without stronger governance in the euro area it will be difficult, if not impossible, to sustain the common currency,” José Manuel Barroso, president of the commission, said in Brussels.

若不加强欧元区的管理,即使有可能维持通用货币,也将会困难重重。欧盟执委会主席若泽•曼努埃尔•巴罗佐于布鲁塞尔称。


The proposals, which would require the approval of all 27 European Union governments to go in to effect, align Brussels with Germany on the issue of oversight.

此提议需要27个欧盟国家政府一致同意方可有效,这就需要欧盟和德国在监督问题上结盟。

German officials have long argued that the European authorities needed greater powers to scrutinize the budgets of member countries that use the euro, to avoid what Germans consider the profligacy that created Greece’s and Italy’s problems and pulled the rest of the region into a crisis whose end seems nowhere in sight.

德国官员长期以来主张,欧洲当局大力细查其成员国的预算,以避免挥霍无度,德国认为正是它引发希腊和意大利问题,并将其他国家拖入危机之中,而危机的尽头似乎遥遥无期。

译者:大家论坛纽约时报翻译团5组:六六飞、stone、killua_s、潔♀玲瓏心、Iris0524、淇水悠悠

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