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[双语阅读] 互联网已死:投资顾问大肆贬低互联网产业

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发表于 2010-2-26 23:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

I can live all day inside the Internet. I can talk to my friends, listen to music, watch TV, trade stocks, play games, do work - all on the Internet. From 6 a.m. until 10 p.m. every day I can spend on the Internet and it would be a day well spent.

But run for the hills when it comes to advising clients to invest in the Internet.

Columnist and portfolio manager James Altucher explains to Simon Constable why Google, Facebook and other internet plays are dead from an investment standpoint. Plus what stocks are hot in the rest of the economy.

The days of infinite margins, 1,000% productivity gains, and growth of market throughout the universe are long over. Internet companies now should be treated, at best, like utility companies that get bought at about 10 times earnings and sold at 13 times earnings. Even then, I'm not sure I would give the Internet sector the same respect as the monopoly-protected utility sector.

Don't just ask me. Ask the best. Nobody can figure out a business model.

Time Warner would rather keep their legacy old-media businesses like People magazine than hold onto one of the biggest Internet companies out there, AOL. And News Corp. is shaking up its MySpace business as it figures out its next steps. (News Corp. owns Dow Jones, publisher of this newswire.) Microsoft has spent billions on Internet strategy without a dime of profit. And even Google can't seem to find any other business model other than the one they stumbled into when they bought Applied Semantics in 2001 that had a little piece of software called AdSense. And the new guys: Twitter and Facebook are still scrambling for profits despite blistering usage growth.

What about the nuts-and-bolts guys? Cisco, at 15 times earnings, trades in line with the S&P 500. Buy them when they start giving a steady dividend.

Let's face it. Electricity greatly improved our quality of life. But I'm not going to get excited about buying a basket of utility companies. Same for the Internet. Can't live without it, but can't live with it (in my portfolio).

So what do we do?

In this economy, it's back to the basics. Regardless of how you feel about $1 trillion in stimulus (with more probably on the way), the best growth is going to come from the companies that help us spend that stimulus.

Check out LNN, Lindsay Corporation, that does boring stuff like highway repair (they make those orange cones) and helps upgrade water infrastructure. With half of all hospital beds in the world filled by people with dirty water-related illnesses, this one is a good bet.

Or little known Colfax Corporation, CFX. At nine times forward earnings, this company is in the "fluid handling" business. Boring. But in a resource-starved world we need them to get oil quickly through the pipelines and into the refineries. And we can't forget about ASTE, Astec Industries, which is like the "Amazon of Asphalt" and is a major player in highway repair (think stimulus again).

The exciting plays right now are the companies that are rebuilding the country along with the economy. Save the Internet for your iTunes downloads. But focus client portfolios on the future. Next article: my favorite biotech plays.

James Altucher is a managing partner of Formula Capital, an alternative asset management firm, and an author on investment strategies. Unlike Dow Jones reporters, he may have positions in the stocks he writes about.


 

我可以在互联网上生活。我能与朋友谈话,听音乐,看电视,买卖股票,玩游戏,工作--都在网上进行。每天的早6点到晚10点我都花在网上,这一天过得很不错。

但是当要建议客户投资互联网的时候,这就是自寻死路了。

专栏作家和投资经理詹姆斯.阿尔托奇向西蒙.康斯特布尔解释为何google.Facebook和其他网络应用将由于一个投资观点而死亡。以及来自其他经济领域的股票将很热门的原因。

拥有无限保证金,1000%生产率提高和全球市场扩张的日子已经够长了。互联网公司现在需要被买掉,最好的就像公共事业公司以大约10倍的收益买进再以13倍的收益卖出。尽管如此,我不确定我会给互联网领域以类似垄断保护性的公共事业公司那样的重视。

别问我。问最好的公司。没有人能构建一个商业模式。

时代华纳更愿意保留他们的旧媒体业务的遗产比如人物杂志,而不是抓着最大的互联网公司之一,美国在线不放。新闻集团正在整顿他的Myspace业务,使之按照设计的下一步走.(新闻集团拥有道琼斯,新闻专线的出版商)。微软在互联网战略上已经花费了数十亿美元,却没有获得一分赢利。即便是谷歌,除了他们在2001年买下 Applied Semantics公司时获得的该公司拥有的一个小软件AdSense让他们无意中撞了大运,看起来也没有找到其他商业模式。同时那些新手: Twitter 和Facebook都还在寻求赢利尽管其使用量在飙升。

那么如何看待那些在基础领域的家伙呢?比如思科,他有15倍的收益,对待他与对待标准普尔500指数的方式是一致。当他们开始派发稳定的红利的时候就买吧。

让我们面对现实吧。电在很大程度上的改善了我们的生活质量。但是我们不会对购买一堆公共事业公司感到兴奋的。对于因特网行业也是如此。没它不行,光有它也不成(在我的投资组合中)。

所以我们该怎么办?

在现在的经济状况下,需要回归基础行业。无论你对1万亿美元经济刺激的感受如何,最好的增长都将来自于那些帮助我们消化经济刺激的公司。

看看LNN,Lindsay Corporation,做着诸如高速公路维修的烦人工作(他们做那些橙色的圆锥筒)并帮助升级水务设施。鉴于一半的医院床位被患有因脏水导致的疾病的人占据,这是一笔好生意。

还有不知名的科尔法公司,CFX。公司具有9倍的收益前景,从事“流体处理”业务。很烦人的工作。但是在一个资源饥渴的世界,我们需要他们迅速的通过管道把石油输入精炼厂。还有别忘了ASTE, Astec Industries,就像“沥青的亚马逊雨林”,它是高速公路维修的主力军(再想想经济刺激)。

令人振奋的公司是那些与经济同步重建国家的公司。把那些因特网公司存着来用于你的iTune下载吧。但是客户投资组合要着眼未来。下一篇文章:我最喜欢的生物科技公司。

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