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[2007.05.19]China and US trade

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发表于 2010-3-17 22:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
China and US trade 中美贸易

Lost in translation
在折算中迷失
May 17th 2007 | BEIJING AND HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition

If China sharply revalued the yuan, as American politicians are demanding, it could actually hurt the United States and help China

如果中国如美国政客们要求的那样急剧升值人民币,事实上中国会得到好处,而美国则会受到创伤。



CHINA is being cast as the villain once again. By holding its exchange rate artificially low, it is stealing jobs and causing the United States to run a huge trade deficit. Beijing must therefore be forced to revalue the yuan. These are the arguments behind an increasingly protectionist mood in Washington. Yet they are largely flawed. A stronger Chinese currency would not much reduce America's trade deficit. Indeed, the irony is that China, not America, has more to gain from setting the yuan free. Without a more flexible exchange rate, there is a growing risk that China's sizzling economy will boil over.

中国正再次扮演反派人物。通过人为保持低汇率,它窃取就业机会,并且致使美国承担了巨额贸易逆差。因此,北京必须被迫升值人民币。这些就是华盛顿越来越多的贸易保护主义情绪背后的论调。然而他们大错特错了。更加坚挺的人民币对于减少美国贸易赤字收效甚微。实际上,具有讽刺意味的是,中国(而不是美国)从放开人民币管制当中获益更多。如果没有更加灵活的汇率,滋滋响的中国经济会面临沸腾的危险。

Although by themselves these actions are trivial, together they point to an increasing appetite for tougher action against China. The Bush administration is under increasing pressure, particularly from Congress.

尽管就自身来讲这都是一些小动作,但是联合起来就表明了对于采取更强硬措施反对中国的越来越大的胃口。布什政府顶着(特别是来自国会的)越来越多的压力。

Congressmen complain that the so-called China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue (a series of high-level talks between the two countries launched last year by Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary) has so far failed to produce results. The recent deterioration in trade relations does not bode well for the next meeting, which begins on May 22nd. Many commentators now reckon that Congress will inevitably pass some kind of China-bashing legislation later this year. A sharp economic slowdown in America as a result of the collapsing housing market would make this even more likely.

国会议员们抱怨,所谓中美战略经济对话(财政部长汉克.鲍尔森去年创立的两国间的一系列高层对话)迄今为止没有发挥作用近来的贸易摩擦可不是五月二十二日开始的下一次会议的吉兆。现在许多评论员预计国会将在今年晚些时候通过某种痛击中国的法案。房地产市场的崩溃导致的美国经济的急速衰退使其更加可能发生。

The biggest risk comes from measures linked to China's supposed exchange-rate misalignment. The infamous Schumer-Graham bill, which proposed a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese goods to offset the yuan's alleged undervaluation, was withdrawn last year. But the two senators behind it are working with others on a new WTO-compatible version that could soon appear. Although the new bill is unlikely to include across-the-board tariffs, it could have sharp teeth.

最大的风险来自测量假定的中国汇率失调的标准。声名狼藉的舒默-格雷厄姆法案——建议对所有中国商品征收27.5%关税以抵消人民币所谓的低估——在去年被撤销。而作为始作俑者的两名参议员以及其他人正在为即将浮出水面的世贸组织的匹配版本而辛勤工作。尽管新法案不太可能包含全面关税,但还是会有尖牙利齿。

Meanwhile, the target of all this hostility looms ever larger: China's trade surplus with America increased to $233 billion last year, accounting for almost 30% of America's total deficit. China's total current-account surplus reached an estimated $250 billion, or 9% of GDP, up from only 1% in 2001. Worse still, in the first four months of 2007, its trade surplus jumped by 88% compared with the same period in 2006.

同时,所有敌对行动的对象之大前所未有:去年中国对美国的贸易顺差增加到2330亿美元,几乎占美国全部贸易逆差的30%。中国的经常项目[3]帐户盈余总额估计达到2500亿美元,或者国内生产总值的9%,而2001年这一比例仅为1%。更糟的是,2007年前四个月,其贸易顺差与2006年同期相比跃升了88%。

The making of myths  谬论的产生

China officially abandoned its decade-long policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar in July 2005. Since then it has risen by only 8% against the greenback. Because the dollar itself has weakened, the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate has barely budged. In real trade-weighted terms it is about 10% cheaper than at the dollar's peak in 2002. As a result, it is not just the usual protectionist suspects that demand action, but many mainstream American economists are now calling on China to revalue by 20% or more. Yet the standard arguments for a revaluation are based partly on a series of myths.

2005年7月,中国正式放弃实行十年之久的人民币盯住美元政策。从那以后,人民币对美钞已经升值8%。因为美元自身的疲软,人民币的贸易加权汇率[4]几乎没有变动。在实际贸易加权范围内,它比美元出现最高值的2002年还要便宜10%。结果,不仅仅是贸易保护主义者嫌疑犯请求采取措施,现在就连美国主流经济学家也呼吁人民币升值20%或者更多。然而关于升值的标准论调部分地基于种种谬论。

The first myth is that there is overwhelming evidence that the yuan is grossly undervalued. China's large bilateral trade surplus with America proves nothing. It largely reflects Asia's changing supply chain. Much of what America buys from China today once came from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. China now imports components from these countries, assembles them and exports the finished goods to America. Knock out these and America's bilateral deficit with China shrinks by more than half. Even so, China's overall current-account surplus is also huge. The surge in its foreign-exchange reserves, to over $1.2 trillion, also suggests that the yuan is undervalued: without those massive purchases of dollars, the currency would have risen.

谬论一:是人民币币值被严重低估铁证如山。中国对美国的巨额双边贸易顺差证明不了什么。这基本上反映了亚洲供应链的变化。今天美国从中国购买的商品从前大部分来自日本,韩国和台湾。现在中国从这些国家和地区进口零部件,组装为成品后出口给美国。排除掉这些因素之后,美国对中国的贸易逆差将缩水一大半。虽然如此,中国的经常项目帐户盈余总额还是庞大的。超过一万二千亿美元的外汇储备的涌入,也暗示着人民币被低估了;如果没有如此巨额的美元买进,货币本该升值的。

However, not all economists agree that the yuan needs to be sharply revalued. At one extreme is Morris Goldstein, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who argues that the yuan is undervalued by 40% or more against the dollar and should immediately be revalued by 10-15%. In the other corner many highly respected economists, including Robert Mundell, an economics Nobel prize-winner, and Ronald McKinnon, of Stanford University, strongly argue against a big appreciation of the yuan.

然而,并非所有的经济学家都同意人民币需要急速升值这一说法。一个极端是彼得森国际经济研究所的莫里斯.戈尔德施泰因,他主张人民币对美元被低估了40%或者更多,并应立刻升值10-15%。另一个极端是许多德高望重的经济学家,他们(包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特.蒙代尔[5],以及斯坦福大学的罗纳德.麦金农[6])强烈反对人民币的大幅升值。

The devil to measure  流氓度量法

Economists find it devilishly hard to define the “correct value” for a currency. On purchasing-power parity (PPP), the yuan is clearly undervalued against the dollar. Perhaps by as much as 50%. But PPP is not useful for determining the optimal exchange rate between two countries of such different levels of income. It is natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries because wages are lower. As countries get richer and their productivity rises, their real exchange rates appreciate. And although the depreciation in the yuan's real trade-weighted value since 2002 looks perverse, this follows a real appreciation of 50% between 1994 and 2001 (see chart 1).

经济学家发现给货币定义“正确的价值”难于上青天。就购买力平价[7]来讲,人民币对美元显然被低估了。大概50%那么多。然而购买力平价对确定不同收入水平的两国间的最优汇率没有作用。穷国因为工资较低所以自然而然地平均价格也比较低。随着国家变得富裕,生产力水平提高,实际汇率也会水涨船高。而尽管自从2002年以来,人民币的实际贸易加权值一直降低,这看起来是故意作对,但是这是因袭1994至2001年的实际上50%的增值。



A study by two IMF economists, Steven Dunaway and Xiangming Li, found that estimates for the undervaluation of the yuan ranged from zero to nearly 50%, depending on which method was used. Another recent study, by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fujii, concluded that using conventional statistical methods it is hard to prove that the yuan is much undervalued. Such uncertainty may partly explain why America's Treasury Department has so far ducked labelling China as a currency manipulator in its twice-yearly report to Congress. Another reason is that it is loth to give ammunition to the protectionist lobby.

两名国际货币基金组织经济学家——史蒂文.达纳韦和李向明(音)——的一项研究表明,因使用的方法不同,对于人民币低估的价值估计从零到50%不一而足。近来另一项来自Yin Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn以及Eiji Fujii的研究,得出结论说很难用传统的统计方法来证明人民币被严重低估。这种不确定性可以部分地解释为何迄今为止美国财政部在给国会的半年度报告里一直避免把中国打上货币操纵者的标签。另一个原因是它讨厌给贸易保护主义议员(攻击中国)提供弹药。

Myth number two is that the sharp increase in China's trade surplus is due to an explosion in cheap exports. Until 2004 China's surplus was relatively modest, but it soared over the next two years (see chart 2). Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS, points out that export growth actually slowed between 2004 and 2006 (see chart 3). The main reason for the bigger trade surplus was a sharp slowdown in the annual real growth rate in imports, from more than 30% in early 2004 to less than 15% last year.

谬论二:中国贸易顺差的急速增加全拜廉价出口商品的剧增所赐。直到2004年中国的贸易顺差都是先对适中的,但在随后两年却突飞猛进。瑞士联合银行[8]亚洲首席经济学家乔纳森.安德森指出,实际上出口增长在2004至2006年间放缓了。巨额贸易顺差的主要原因是进口的年度实际增长率急速降低——从2004年初的超过30%到去年的不到15%。

The entire increase in China's trade surplus since 2004 has come from trade in heavy industrial materials and equipment. China used to import increasing amounts of steel, aluminium, chemicals and machinery, but import growth collapsed after 2004 when the government started to tighten policy, causing a sharp slowdown in construction, one of the biggest importers of machinery and materials. At the same time China continued to invest heavily in metals and equipment, creating substantial excess capacity, so import growth remained relatively weak last year. Mr Anderson argues that imports should recover as overcapacity is used up.

自从2004年以来中国的贸易顺差整体增加源自重工业原料和设备的贸易。中国曾经不断增加进口钢材,铝,化工原料和机械,然而2004年政府开始紧缩政策,造成作为最大的机械原料进口者的建筑业的急剧衰退之后,进口增长暴跌。同时中国继续大量地投资金属和设备行业,创造坚实的超额生产能力,所以去年的进口增长仍然是比较疲软的。安德森先生认为,当过剩的生产能力被消耗殆尽的时候,进口应该会复苏。

The third fallacy is that imports from China destroy jobs and harm the American economy. It is hard to see how China can be blamed for job losses when America's unemployment rate (4.5%) is close to its lowest for decades. Trade with China may affect the composition of jobs in America, but it has little impact on total employment. It is true that some workers are harmed by trade with China, just as there are some losers from all international trade. But the American economy overall is better off, so in theory there is ample room to compensate any losers.

谬论三:从中国进口摧毁就业机会,损伤美国经济。当美国的失业率(4.5%)跌至数十年来的最低点的时候,很难理解中国要为就业机会的流失负责。与中国的贸易会影响美国的就业结构,但却完全不会影响总就业人数。正如所有的国际贸易总会有失败者一样,一些劳动者因与中国的贸易而受损。然而美国的总体经济境况更好了,所以理论上有足够的余地补偿所有的失败者。

Trade with China helps, not harms the average American. Thanks to imports from China, prices are lower and real incomes higher. Commentators often refer to the “cheap” yuan as being an unfair subsidy for Chinese exporters. But it is a moot question who exactly is subsidising whom. Not only do cheap imports subsidise American consumers, but China's large purchases of Treasury bonds also hold down American interest rates, thereby subsidising home buyers. Suppose that overnight the yuan rose by 30%, what would happen? American interest rates would rise as China needed to buy fewer Treasury securities and prices at Wal-Mart would increase. If consumer spending and imports then collapsed, this would certainly reduce America's trade deficit, but in a much more painful way than most Americans have in mind.

同中国的贸易帮助了而非损害了普通的美国人。多亏从中国进口商品,价格更加低廉而实际收入增加了。评论员们经常把“便宜的”人民币作为给中国出口商的不公平补贴来引用。然而到底谁给了谁好处,这是个悬而未决的问题。非但廉价的进口商品使美国消费者获益,而且中国大量购买政府债券还抑制了美国的利率,藉此让家庭型顾客受惠。假如一夜之间人民币升值30%,会发生什么事?因为中国只需购买很少的国库证券,美国的利率就会上升;而沃尔玛的价格也会提高。如果压缩消费性开支和进口量,的确会减少美国的贸易逆差,但是其痛苦程度是大多数美国人做梦都想不到的。

Wishful thinking  一厢情愿

The biggest myth of all is that a revaluation of the yuan would greatly reduce America's trade deficit. The real cause of the deficit is that Americans spend too much and save too little. This means that the country has to import surplus savings from abroad by running a current-account deficit. If a stronger yuan did not cause Americans to save more, it would do little by itself to reduce the trade deficit.

最大的谬论是,人民币升值将极大的减少美国的贸易逆差。逆差的真正原因是美国人消费太多而储蓄太少。这就意味着,国家不得不通过经常帐户赤字从国外吸入过剩储蓄。如果更加坚挺的人民币并没有导致美国人储蓄更多,(人民币想)减少贸易逆差也是心有余力不足。

Another reason why even a big rise in the yuan would do little to reduce America's deficit is that there is little overlap between American and Chinese production, so American goods cannot replace Chinese imports. Instead, other countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, would probably replace the Chinese. Shifting purchases to higher-cost producers amounts to imposing a tax on American consumers, says Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley.

人民币的急速升值对减少美国的逆差无能为力的另一个原因是,中国的和美国的产品之间几乎没有重叠,因此美国商品不能替代从中国进口的商品。相反,其他诸如印度尼西亚和越南等国家或许将取中国而代之。转而购买高成本生产者的商品等于是对美国消费者征税,摩根斯坦利[9]首席经济学家史蒂芬.罗奇如是说。

Even where America and China do compete, as in electronics, the high import content of China's exports blunts the impact of exchange-rate movements on export prices, because a rise in the yuan reduces input costs. About half of China's exports consist of goods that have been assembled from imported components. And domestic wages and materials account for about 30% of the cost of those re-exports. Mr Anderson estimates that a 10% rise in the yuan would increase average export prices by only 3-5%.

就算在中美间确有竞争的领域(如电子设备),由于人民币升值减少了投入的成本,中国出口商品的极高的进口构成也会钝化汇率变化对出口价格的影响 。中国大约一半的出口由来自进口零部件组装而成的商品构成。而国内的薪金和原料大约只占那些再出口商品成本的30%。安德森先生估计,人民币升值10%仅会让平均出口价格增加3-5%。

If a yuan revaluation encouraged other Asian economies to follow suit, the impact on America's trade deficit would be larger, but still modest. If a 10% revaluation of the yuan were matched by all other Asian currencies, the dollar's trade-weighted index would fall by 4%. Yet, the 19% decline in the dollar's trade-weighted index since early 2002 has failed to trim the deficit.

如果人民币升值鼓励其他亚洲经济体亦步亦趋,对美国贸易逆差的影响将会较大,但仍然是适中的。如果其他亚洲货币和人民币一起升值10%,美元的贸易加权指数将会下跌4%。然而,2002年初以来,美元的贸易加权指数跌落19%,却并没有平衡贸易逆差。

None of this means that a yuan revaluation leaves America's trade deficit unchanged, simply that any change would probably be small. Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, finds evidence that China's trade balance is affected by movements in its exchange rate: the yuan has fallen sharply against the euro since 2002 as a result of the dollar's decline, and China's exports to Europe have consequently grown at a faster rate than its exports to America. A stronger yuan might therefore curb China's exports to America, but America's deficit would continue to loom large if imports from China were simply replaced by those from elsewhere.

这并不是意味着人民币的升值无力改变美国的贸易逆差,简单来说即使有也很微弱。洛宾尼全球经济的诺瑞尔.洛宾尼发现了中国的贸易平衡受汇率影响的证据:受美元贬值的牵连,2002年以来人民币对欧元急速贬值,而结果中国对欧洲的出口以比出口美国更快的速度增长。因此更加坚挺的人民币可能抑制中国对美国的出口,然而如果仅是简单地用其他国家替代中国的话,美国的贸易逆差将继续显得突出。

Chinese whispers  中国私语

Many of the arguments heard in America in favour of a big revaluation of the yuan are flawed or at least exaggerated. However, many of the arguments used in Beijing for why a revaluation would endanger China's economy are equally suspect. For instance, the common claim that a big jump would seriously harm China's growth and employment contradicts the argument (also favoured by Beijing) that an appreciation would have little effect on China's trade surplus with America.

在美国听到的赞成人民币大力升值的论调是风生水起,或者至少是夸大其词。然而,北京使用的解释为何升值会危及中国经济的许多论证同样值得怀疑。例如,关于大的上涨将严重损害中国的增长和就业的普遍主张与增值几乎不会影响中国对美国的贸易顺差的论点(挠到了北京的痒处)相矛盾。

Or take another popular line of defence: it is often asserted that China cannot afford a more flexible exchange rate until its dodgy banking system is reformed and strengthened. Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, says this argument has it completely backwards. The distortions caused by today's rigid exchange-rate regime may themselves be the biggest threat to Chinese financial stability. A sound banking system requires an independent monetary policy, which uses interest rates rather than blunt directives, to guide credit. And a country cannot control its monetary policy unless it accepts a more flexible exchange rate.

或者用另一个更受欢迎的防线:中国经常宣称在总是出岔子的金融系统得到改革并巩固之前,受不了更具弹性的汇率体系。康奈尔大学[10]的经济学家埃斯华.普拉萨德表示这种论点是完全颠倒的。由固定汇率体系引起的扭曲本身可能就是中国金融稳定的最大的威胁。健全的金融系统需要独立自主的货币政策,利用利率而不是生硬的指令来管理信贷。一个国家只有采取更具弹性的汇率制度才能控制金融政策。

By tying the yuan closely to the dollar, China has been forced to hold its interest rates lower than is prudent: higher rates would attract more “hot money” from abroad, putting upward pressure on the currency. The real rate of interest paid on bank deposits is negative and lending rates are far too low for such a fast-growing economy. Cheap money results in excessive bank lending and poor investment decisions, which could lead to an increase in non-performing loans. Excessively low interest rates are also fuelling stockmarket and property bubbles.

通过人民币与美元紧密挂钩,中国已被迫维持低到不能用谨慎来形容的利率水平:高利率会吸引更多国外的“热钱”[11],给货币带来升值压力。为银行存款支付的实际利息率是负数,而贷款利率对于这样快速增长的经济来说太低了。低利借款源于过多的银行贷款和导致不良贷款[12]增加的拙劣的投资方案。过低的利率水平还会助长股票市场以及房地产市场的泡沫。

News that China's real GDP surged by a breathtaking 11.1% in the year to the first quarter and that consumer-price inflation had risen to 3.3% in March (it eased to 3% in April), stoked fears that the economy is out of control. But concerns about overheating in the usual sense of excess demand are exaggerated. China's widening current-account surplus and its strong investment imply excess supply. Excluding food, the inflation rate is only 0.9%. Instead, the real concern is that excess liquidity, as a result of the surge in foreign-exchange reserves and low interest rates, is flooding into shares (see article). Households are withdrawing money from low-yielding bank accounts to bet on the stockmarket. China needs much higher interest rates to cool its asset markets. To regain control over its monetary policy China needs to let the yuan rise.

今年一季度中国的实际国内总产值骤增了惊心动魄的11.1%,三月份的消费价格指数[13]上涨3.3%(四月份减少到3%),这些消息给经济失控的担心火上浇油。但是对于一般来说是需求过大而经济过热的忧虑是耸人听闻了。中国不断增长的经常帐户盈余以及强劲投资意味着超额供给。除食物以外,通货膨胀率仅为0.9%。相反,真正应该担心的是,外汇储备以及低利率资金带来的过剩的流动性大量涌入股票市场。家庭从低收益的银行帐户中取出资金,到股市里一博输赢。中国需要更高的利率来冷却资本市场。为了恢复对金融政策的控制,中国需要让人民币升值。

A revaluation could also help the government succeed in shifting the balance of growth away from investment and net exports towards consumption. A stronger exchange rate would boost consumers' purchasing power, allowing them to buy more foreign goods. Excess saving in China is as much to blame for global imbalances as inadequate saving in America.

升值还可以帮助政府成功调整增长的平衡,远离投资和净出口,而接近消费。坚挺的汇率将增加消费者的购买力,使他们能够购买更多的外国商品。中国的超额储蓄,跟美国的不充分储蓄一起作为全球不平衡的原因而广受指责。

Most of the increase in saving has come from Chinese companies, which are earning record profits. But household saving is also kept high by the poor public provision of health, education and pensions. Partly as a result, consumption accounts for an unusually low share of GDP.

储蓄增长的大部分来自中国的公司,他们正在赚取前所未有的利润。然而家庭储蓄率也因为健康,教育和养老金的糟糕的公共供给而居高不下。部分导致了,消费部门占GDP比重罕见的低。

The good news is that the mix of growth is starting to become more balanced: over the past year, investment has slowed while retail sales have quickened, rising by 15.5% in the year to April. In other words, consumer spending is now growing faster than GDP. Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, estimates that consumption rose from 37% to 40% of China's nominal GDP growth in 2006 and is set to rise again this year.

好消息是,增长的混乱开始变得平衡的多了:去年,投资放缓,而零售销售额活跃,从年初到四月份增长了15.5%。换句话说,现在消费性开支比国内总产值增长更快。北京的研究公司Dragonomics估计,2006年消费占中国的名义国内总产值增长的比例从37%上升到40%,而今年也再次开始增长。

The stronger growth in Chinese consumer spending has got much less attention in America than the sharp increase in the country's trade surplus. The contribution of net exports to China's growth has increased so far this year. However, the near doubling of its trade surplus in the first four months of the year was probably a one-off, because firms brought forward their shipments so as to avoid an expected reduction in export-tax rebates. Exporters are also thought to be overstating their export revenues in order to dodge capital controls and bring in foreign money to invest in Chinese assets. If so, the trade surplus should stabilise in coming months.

中国消费性开支的强劲增长在美国引起的注意要比中国贸易顺差的急剧增加少的多。今年净出口对中国的增长的贡献增长如此之多。然而,前四个月近乎翻倍的贸易顺差大概是个例外,因为公司为了避免预期的出口退税的减少而提前发货。出口商们也被认为是为了躲避资本管制而高估出口收入,而且携带外币到中国投资。如果是这样的话,贸易顺差将在下个月趋于稳定。

In the long run, stronger domestic consumption could trim China's trade surplus. The government can encourage this by spending more. Its spending on health care and education rose by an average of 50% last year and it is budgeted to rise by more than 60% this year—but from such low levels that it could take years to increase social spending by enough to encourage households to save a lot less. Meanwhile, a stronger yuan would help to rebalance the mix of China's growth.

长期来看,强劲的国内消费会平衡中国的贸易顺差。政府可以通过更多地支出来鼓励这种做法。去年医疗保健以及教育的支出平均增长50%,今年的预算将增长超过60%——不过从这么低的水平发展到充分鼓励家庭较少储蓄可能要费时多年来增加社会支出。同时,坚挺的人民币有助于再平衡中国增长的混乱。

Mirror image  镜花水月

This turns the whole debate about China's exchange-rate policy on its head. It is China that has the most to gain from allowing the yuan to rise. If the spat between America and China were to ignite protectionism or financial instability, it could endanger the whole world economy. All the more foolish, therefore, that economic relations are based on misperceptions on both sides. America needs to stop making China a scapegoat for the failures of American policy. Only if it gets its own economic house in order, by boosting domestic saving, will its “advice” to Beijing seem credible. Likewise, China has no right to criticise American policy when its own economy remains unbalanced.

所有关于中国汇率政策的讨论引起了高层的注意。是中国从允许人民币升值中获益最多。如果中美间的口水战引爆贸易保护主义或者金融动荡,它将危及整个世界经济。因此,最愚蠢的是,这种经济关系是基于双方的错知错觉。美国需要停止让中国成为其政策破产的替罪羊。只有当它把它自己的经济搞得秩序井然的时候,它对北京的“建议”才会看起来可信。同样地,中国没有资格在自身经济失衡的情况下指责美国的政策。

America is right that China needs to revalue, but for the wrong reasons. And arguing that a revaluation helps America's economy makes it less likely that Beijing will act. Moreover, if George Bush foolishly slapped harsh trade sanctions on China, America's economy would be the biggest loser. Likewise, China is foolish to resist a more flexible exchange rate partly because it does not want to be seen as caving in to America's demands, when it is in its own interest. If the world's two leading engines of growth remain at loggerheads, everyone will pay the price.

美国要求中国升值人民币是正确的,但是为了错误的理由。而主张升值会对美国经济有所帮助(这一错误的理由)则会减少北京真正采取措施的可能性。而且,如果乔治.布什傻到鼓吹给以中国严厉的贸易制裁,美国经济将是最大的输家。同样地,中国也不聪明——当它自己有利可图,只部分地出于不想被视为屈服美国的要求的想法,从而就抵制更具弹性的汇率机制。如果这两个世界领先的增长发动机仍然呆头呆脑,所有人都将会为此付出代价。

注释:

[1].出口退税,是指对出口商品已征收的国内税部分或全部退还给出口商的一种措施,这也是国际惯例。

[2].对倾销商品所征收的进口附加税。当进口国因外国倾销某种产品,国内产业受到损害时,征收相当于出口国国内市场价格与倾销价格之间差额的进口税。目的在于抵制倾销,保护国内产业。反倾销税从来是贸易大国进行关税战、贸易战的重要工具。

[3].经常项目是和资本项目相对的概念,是指国际收支中经常发生的交易项目,经常项目反映本国与外国交往中经常发生的项目,包括贸易收支(也就是通常的进出口)、劳务收支(如:运输、港口、通讯和旅游等)和单方面转移(如:侨民汇款、无偿援助和捐赠、国际组织收支等)。是最具综合性的对外贸易的指数。 其他的国际收支项目,如投资、贷款等属于资本项目。

[4].根据一国各贸易伙伴的相对贸易量,给它的币值进行加权,来评估该国货币是否坚挺的一种方法。

[5].美国哥伦比亚大学教授、1999年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、“最优货币区理论”的奠基人,蒙代尔教授对经济学的伟大贡献,一是开放条件下宏观稳定政策的理论(蒙代尔——弗莱明模型),二是最优货币区域理论。

[6].美国斯坦福大学教授、当代金融发展理论奠基人

[7].两国货币之所以能够互相兑换,是因为它们各自在国内具有购买力,因而两国货币的汇率应该等于这两国货币的国内购买力大小之比。由于一国货币购买力的大小与该国通货膨胀率和物价的变动有关,二者呈负相关关系,因此,汇率将随通货膨胀率与物价的变动而变动。

[8].瑞士最大的商业银行,世界大跨国银行之一。1992年的资产额为1832.09 亿美元,居世界大银行第二十七位,职工约2万人,总行设在苏黎世。该银行是1912年由温特图尔银行和托根贝格银行合并组成的。

[9].受到《格拉斯——斯蒂格尔法案》的压力,70年前的1935年春天,在缅因州岸边的小岛农场里,摩根财团做出了不可变更的决定:将摩根银行拆分成两部分:一部分为JP摩根,继续从事传统的商业银行业务;另一部分被分离出成立一家完全独立的投资银行,名叫摩根士丹利。从1935年到1970年,大摩一统天下的威力令人侧目。今后再也不会有哪个投资银行能与之相提并论。它的客户囊括了全球十大石油巨头中的6个,美国十大公司的7个。当时惟一的广告词就是“如果上帝要融资,他也要找摩根士丹利。” 因此,有人说“摩根士丹利继承了美国历史上最强大的金融集团——摩根财团的大部分贵族血统,代表了美国金融巨头主导现代全球金融市场的光荣历史。”因此,《摩根财团》一书认为“摩根的战略就是使得客户感觉到自己获准加入了一家私人俱乐部,而其账户就相当于贵族社会的成员卡一样。” 1974年,摩根士丹利进行了第一次敌意大兼并,就由此主宰了敌意收购这个蛮横的世界。其后的20多年里,大摩一直是美国头号兼并顾问。在2000年之前,它的股本收益率超过30%,一直被列为上市证券公司中效益最好的。

[10].康乃尔大学Cornell University (NY)建于1865年,是由艾兹拉?康乃尔创建的。在所有“常春藤盟校”中,康乃尔是历史最短的一个,而同时它又是最大的一个。

[11]. “热钱(hot money)”、“游资”是人们对国际套利资本的通俗说法,是充斥在世界上,无特定用途的流动资金。也有人形象地把国际套利资本称做“过江龙”、“金融鳄鱼”。它是为追求最高报酬及最低风险,在国际金融市场上迅速流动的短期投机性资金。它的最大特点就是短期、套利和投机。当人民币汇率预期改善、利率高于外币时,“热钱”就会千方百计地流入套利。一旦这两个条件发生反方向变化时,“热钱”就会迅速撤出,从而引起金融市场的动荡。

[12].俗称呆坏账,也就是说,银行发放的贷款不能按预先约定的期限、利率收回本金和利息。包括逾期贷款(贷款到期限未还的贷款)、 呆滞贷款(逾期两年以上的贷款)和呆帐贷款(需要核销的收不回的贷款)三种情况。

[13].反映居民生活中的产品和劳务价格所统计出来的物价变动指标,通常是作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指标。如果消费者物价指数升幅过大,表明通胀过渡,会带来经济不稳定,央行就会有紧缩货币政策和财政政策的风险,从而会造成经济前景不明朗。大于3%就称为通货膨胀。
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这篇文章不错。比较客观公正。。
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If China sharply revalued the yuan, as American politicians are demanding, it could actually hurt the United States and help China  

如果中国如美国政客们苛求的那样对急剧升值人民币,事实上中国会得到好处,美国则会受到创伤。

请兄弟读一下翻译,前半句却是翻译欠妥,我的版本:如果中国如美国政客所愿,升值人民币,那样实际上会让美国受伤,让中国获得裨益。
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发表于 2010-3-17 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
这篇文章是出自哪里呀?
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