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[2008.12.11]Cracks in the crust 冰川爆裂

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发表于 2010-3-18 01:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Iceland
冰岛

Cracks in the crust
冰川爆裂

Dec 11th 2008 | REYKJAVIK
2008年12月11日|雷克雅未克

From The Economist print edition
译自经济学人印刷版

Iceland’s banking collapse is the biggest, relative to the size of an economy, that any country has ever suffered. There are lessons to be learnt beyond its shores
相对经济规模而言,冰岛的银行崩溃是一个国家遭遇过的最大的一次危机。在其背后可以吸取许多的教训。



ATOP a hill near Reykjavik’s old harbour is a bronze statue of Ingolfur Arnarson, the first Nordic settler of inhospitable Iceland. It overlooks a bunker-like building: the central bank, headed by David Oddsson, a man who more than 1,100 years later has shown similar survival skills. Before chairing the central bank’s board of governors, Mr Oddsson was prime minister for more than 13 years, a record, during which time Iceland became one of the richest countries in the world. For years he was Iceland’s most popular politician, privatising most of the banking system with a Thatcherite zeal and floating the currency, the krona.

在雷克雅未克旧港附近的一座小山顶有座当年第一个从挪威来到荒凉的冰岛的居住者英格尔夫·阿尔纳尔松的铜像。它眺望着一座煤仓般的建筑:那是冰岛的中央银行,目前由戴维·奥德森,一个1100多年后的同样精通生存技能的人,所掌管。在成为冰岛央行行长之前,奥德森创纪录地担任了13年多的总理,在其任期内冰岛成为了世界上最富的国家之一。多年以来,他是冰岛最受欢迎的政治家,他用撒切尔式的热情私有化了大部分的银行系统,并且让冰岛的货币冰岛克朗自由浮动。

But the collapse of the krona and nationalisation of the country’s three largest banks in early October, which forced the country to secure help from the IMF, have left Iceland’s economic miracle and Mr Oddsson’s reputation in tatters. For weeks, protesters have gathered in Reykjavik’s main square each Saturday calling for his removal from office. On the chilly afternoon of December 1st a few hundred of them, shouting “David out, David out”, gathered at the Arnarson statue and marched down the hill to the central bank. In the lobby, they were met by riot police, who eventually defused the situation.

但是,冰岛克朗的崩溃和10月初对该国三个最大银行的国有化,迫使冰岛向国际货币基金组织(IMF)求救,也使得冰岛的经济奇迹和奥尔森名声扫地。几周来,抗议者们每周六都聚集在雷克雅未克主广场要求他下台。在12月1日清冷的下午,几百个抗议者在阿尔纳尔松铜像前聚集,然后高喊着“戴维下台,戴维下台”, 游行着从山上走向央行。到大堂的时候,他们碰上了防暴警察,形势才缓和下来。


Such protests are almost unheard of: the only previous mass demonstrations to shake the country, against NATO membership, took place in 1949. But the economic crisis has exposed deep fissures in the nation of 300,000 people. In the same building the next day, Mr Oddsson barely smiles when he tells The Economist, “They say that the only way to get to paradise without dying is to be governor of a central bank. This has not been true in Iceland.”

这样的抗议之前几乎是闻所未闻:上一次如此大规模的惊动全国的示威活动是1949年的抗议加入北约的时候了。但经济危机暴露出了这个人口30万的国家裂痕。第二天在同一大楼,奥德森勉强地笑着对《经济学人》说,“都说能够不死而进入天堂的唯一办法就是去当央行的行长。在冰岛却并非如此。”

So far, such protests are the most tangible evidence of the troubles besetting Icelandic society. The landscape bears scars too. From the central bank, the view of snow-dusted Mount Esja across the estuary is blocked by a half-finished grey edifice, sprawled like a dead whale across the harbour-front. This was to have been Iceland’s most spectacular building, crowning 15 years of economic growth: a concert hall facing out to the North Atlantic, covered in glass prisms imported from China meant to resemble glaciers and lava. But since the collapse of the bank that led the funding, construction has almost ground to a halt.

至今,这些抗议是困扰着冰岛社会的问题的最明显的证据。而岛上风光也是伤疤累累。从央行大楼看去,被雪覆盖着蜿蜒至出海口的艾斯嘉山脉如今被一栋灰色的烂尾楼割断,这栋楼趴在海港前如同一条死了的鲸鱼。它本该成为献给冰岛15年经济成就的最引人注目的建筑物:一座面朝北大西洋的贴满从中国进口的用以代表冰川和火山岩的玻璃棱的音乐厅。但自从主持为其融资的银行的崩溃,建造工作已基本终止了。

Likewise, blocks of half-built luxury flats stand half-finished along the waterfront. Instead of glass prisms, Icelanders are looking forward to a different Chinese cargo in the dying weeks of the year: fireworks. They set off more per person each new year than any other country in the world. Such is the demand that the Chinese manufacturers are making a special loan to Icelanders to buy them, according to a local newspaper.

同样,一片片盖到一半的豪华公寓矗立在水边。在临近年终的几个星期,冰岛人从中国进口的不是玻璃棱,而是另外一种物品——烟花。每个新年,他们每人比世界其它国家的人燃放更多的烟花。根据当地报纸报道,因为这样,所以中国厂商愿意提供更多的特别贷款给冰岛人来购买烟花。

Almost no other private creditor is lending them anything; Iceland has turned instead to the IMF. In November the fund agreed to a $2.1 billion two-year standby programme, which was supplemented by promises from Nordic countries and Poland, as well as Britain, the Netherlands and Germany. The package will be worth $10.2 billion in total—more than half of Iceland’s GDP.

几乎没有其它放贷机构愿意贷款给他们。冰岛只好转而求助于IMF。11月IMF同意提供一项21亿美元的备用基金,此外,北欧国家和波兰,以及英国、荷兰和德国也承诺提供补充基金。这一援助方案总额将达到102亿美元——超过冰岛GDP的一半。



The IMF calls the collapse of the banks the biggest banking failure in history relative to the size of an economy. In 2007 Iceland’s three main banks made loans equivalent to about nine times the size of the booming economy, up from about 200% of GDP after privatisation in 2003 (see chart 1). Only about one-fifth of those loans were in kronur; interest rates on these were punitively high. Ordinary citizens instead borrowed from their banks in cheaper currencies such as yen and Swiss francs to buy even the most modest homes and cars.

IMF认为相对经济规模而言,冰岛的银行崩溃是一个国家所遭遇过的最大的一次银行危机。2007年冰岛三大银行放出的贷款从2003年私有化后的GDP的200%飙升至该国经济总量的9倍(参照表1)。这些贷款只有五分之一是以冰岛克朗计价的,而且利率相当之高;普通居民即使是购买最普通的房子或车也会从银行借入日元或瑞士法郎这些比较便宜的货币。

But after the banks collapsed in early October, the currency slumped and domestic interest rates rose sharply (see chart 2). Exchange controls imposed in the heat of the crisis have severely restricted access to hard currency. Initially, there were fears for the payments system. But after an initial panic, credit and debit cards appear to work normally again; Reykjavik’s stores are filled with Christmas shoppers, and restaurants still serve up expensive delicacies such as grilled whale.

但自从10月份的银行崩溃以来,货币贬值,国内利率暴涨(参照表2)。在危急之中实行的外汇管制严禁兑换硬通货。起初,担心主要是支付系统,但过了开始的恐慌之后,信用卡和借记卡的清算又恢复正常了;雷克雅未克的商店里又充满了圣诞购物的人们,餐厅又继续提供烤鲸等昂贵的美食了。



But people are mostly living on borrowed time as well as borrowed money. The IMF programme forecasts that the economy will contract by 9.6% next year. Many workers have been laid off but, thanks to Iceland’s labour laws, they have three months’ notice, so the impact is not yet being fully felt. Many young Icelanders, who have never known unemployment, are expected to lose their jobs as businesses shut down. Vilhjalmur Egilsson, head of the Confederation of Icelandic Employers, the main business organisation, says that “corporate Iceland is technically bankrupt” because of its foreign debts. It is unable to refinance loans because the new capital controls mean all credit to the country has dried up.

但大多数人还是依靠着“借来的钱”活在“借来的时间”里。IMF的援助项目预言明年冰岛经济将萎缩9.6%。许多工人下岗,不过得益于冰岛的劳动法,他们会提前三个月得到通知,所以冲击还没有什么明显的感觉。因为公司倒闭,许多从未知道失业为何物的冰岛年轻人将首次尝到失业的滋味。韦尔加尔莫·艾基尔松,冰岛雇主联合会(一个冰岛重要的商业组织)的主席,说“冰岛如果作为一个公司来说已经技术上破产了”,因为其外债累累。它无法重新融资,因为新的资本管制意味着这个国家的所有信贷来源都已枯竭了。

With unemployment rising, citizens talk openly about defaulting on their home and car loans (those flashy Range Rovers are now known dryly as “Game Overs”). Principal payments on local-currency mortgages are indexed to inflation, which is expected to be 20% this year. Because of this and their foreign-currency exposure, many households’ debts have doubled in krona terms. Sirry Hjaltested, a pre-school teacher who joins in the Saturday protests, says that her grocery bills have gone up by half in a few months. She blames the country’s reckless bankers for the ruin of the economy. “If I met a banker,” she says, “I’d kick his ass so hard, my shoes would be stuck inside.”

随着失业率上升,市民开始公开谈论拖欠房贷和车贷(那些炫目的“陆虎”现在都成了“陆鼠”了)。本币按揭贷款的本金偿还是记入通胀指数的,今年预计将达到20%。因为通胀以及外汇敞口,许多家庭以冰岛克朗计价的债务今年将会翻倍。雪莉·海雅特斯蒂,一个参加了周六游行前教师,说她的日用品的开支在几个月内已经上升了一半。她谴责本国无良的银行家们毁了国家的经济。“如果我碰上一个银行家”,她说,“我要狠狠地踹他一脚,把鞋都踹进他的屁股”。

The scale of what confronts Ms Hjaltested and other Icelanders is only just becoming clear. According to the IMF, the failure of the banks may cost taxpayers more than 80% of GDP. Relative to the economy’s size, that would be about 20 times what the Swedish government paid to rescue its banks in the early 1990s. It would be several times the cost of Japan’s banking crisis a decade ago.

海雅特斯蒂以及其它冰岛人所面临的困境的程度正越来越清楚。根据IMF,银行的崩溃可能会侵蚀到纳税人相当于GDP的80%的钱。按经济规模来算,那将相当于瑞典政府1990年代援助其银行体系支出的20倍。亦相当于十年前日本银行危机的成本。

Abroad, there are also stark lessons from Iceland’s woes. There may also be important consequences for cross-border banking regulation all over Europe. Iceland’s tale exemplifies why central banks around the world are spraying liquidity at the financial system to keep banks in business. When liquidity vanishes, banks quickly become insolvent. When that happens to foreign-currency loans and deposits, the central bank’s abilities as lender of last resort are tested, and Iceland shows how quickly a small country with a thinly traded currency can fail that test.

外国也将从冰岛的鲜活教训中得到启示。全欧洲的跨国银行监管也可能会出现严重的后果。冰岛的故事示范了为何世界各国央行会为支撑商业银行的业务而提供泛滥的流动性。流动性一旦消失,银行很快便无法进行清偿。如果这发生在外币的存贷,央行作为最后贷款人的能力亦将面临考验,而冰岛则显示了一个使用小币种货币的小国在这种考验面前将迅速崩溃。

Iceland was uniquely overextended, but other countries, too, have big banking industries relative to the size of their economies supported by lots of borrowing. Britain is one. Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics, who prepared a report on Iceland earlier this year that gave warning of the risk of disaster, asked in a recent, widely discussed blog whether London could be “Reykjavik-on-Thames”.

冰岛的过度扩张程度是独一无二的,但其它国家同样通过大举外债来支撑相对于其经济规模显得过于庞大的银行系统。英国就是其中一个。伦敦经济学院的威仁·毕维特曾在今年早些时候撰写了一份关于冰岛的报告,在最近一篇广为讨论的博客中被问及伦敦会不会变成“泰晤士河上的雷克雅未克”时,他对灾难爆发的风险提出了警告。

A geyser under London
伦敦城下的间歇泉
The balance-sheet of Britain’s banking system, at 450% of GDP, was half the (relative) size of Iceland’s at the end of last year. But that is still high. Like Iceland, Britain does not have a global reserve currency, such as the dollar or the euro, to draw on if it needs to act as lender of last resort. Its net foreign-exchange exposure is nil, but Iceland was in a similar position, and its banks have not been able to liquidate foreign assets to cover their foreign debts.

英国银行系统资产负债表上的数字高达GDP的450%,以相对规模而言是冰岛去年底的一半,但还是很高。与冰岛一样,英国的货币也不是美元或欧元这样的世界储备货币,在政府充当最后贷款人的时候可供提取。英国的净外汇敞口是零,但冰岛当时的头寸也差不多如此,而它的银行还是不能用外币资产来清偿其外债。

Mr Buiter acknowledges that Britain has access to currency swap lines from the world’s biggest central banks, which would help it prevent a run on the banks. But he argues that the cost of this insurance will make London less competitive as a global financial centre. He thinks this makes a good case for Britain to adopt the euro. Among larger European countries, he says, the British government’s exposure to its banking sector is by far the highest. “Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden are in a similar pickle,” he adds.

毕维特承认英国可通过与世界各个最大的央行的货币互换,这可以防止该国的银行被挤兑。但他认为,这种保障的代价是使得伦敦作为一个国际金融中心竞争力降低。他认为这给了英国一个很好的理由去采用欧元。他说,在欧洲较大的国家中,英国政府对其银行部门的敞口是最大。“瑞士、丹麦和瑞典也都一样”他补充道。

Iceland found, to its peril, that its access to the leading currencies was not as sure as it had hoped. In fact, as troubles mounted, it succeeded only in securing swap lines worth euro1.5 billion ($2.3 billion) from three Nordic central banks in May, hardly enough to prevent a run on its banks. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England all rejected Iceland’s requests, stating, according to the Central Bank of Iceland, that the Icelandic financial system was too large relative to the size of the economy for plausible swap lines to be effective. They also wanted Iceland to talk to the IMF, which the authorities appear to have done only half-heartedly at first.

冰岛发现,在它出现危机的时候,想要获取那些主要货币并不如它希望的那么容易。事实上,当麻烦越来越多的时候,它只在五月成功地与北欧的三个中央银行进行了15亿欧元(合23亿美元)的货币互换,还不足于防止其银行被挤兑。美联储、欧洲央行(ECB)和英格兰银行都拒绝了冰岛的请求,说根据冰岛中央银行提供的数字,冰岛的金融体系相对于其经济规模已经太大而超过了互换协议可接受的范围。他们还要求冰岛去求助于IMF,后者起初仅仅心不在焉地应付而已。

Why were the foreigners so tight-fisted? A big problem was the increasingly rickety business model of Iceland’s two largest banks, Landsbanki and Kaupthing Bank. Because Iceland is so small, the banks could attract only paltry sums in domestic deposits, which made them overly reliant on international capital markets. But in 2006, in what one of their chief executives describes as a stroke of genius, they hit upon the idea of creating internet accounts to attract foreign deposits, using the cost savings from online banking to offer higher interest rates to savers. Their strategy was so successful that soon they were sucking deposits away from bricks-and-mortar banks across Europe.

为何这些外国人如此小气呢?一个最大的问题就是冰岛两个最大的银行Landsbanki和Kaupthing银行的商业风险不断上升。因为冰岛很小,所以银行只能吸引到小额的本地存款,这使得他们过度依赖国际资本市场。但在2006年,他们想出了通过网上账户来吸引外国存款的被他们某一个的首席执行官称之为天才之举的想法,这通过网上银行来降低成本并给储户予较高的利息。他们的策略及其成功,不久他们便从那些欧洲大行处抢得了很多存款。

Financial officials in several countries say it became clear early this year that these online banks might pose a systemic threat across the region. Landsbanki, for example, had used Iceland’s membership of the European Economic Area (which gives countries access to the European single market without having to join the European Union) to develop its online banking presence. Under the EEA’s “passport” system, it could set up bank branches abroad that were supervised from Reykjavik, notably its internet operations in Britain and the Netherlands, called Icesave.

几个国家的财经官员说,今年早期已经可以比较清楚地可以看到这些网上银行可能会给整个地区带来系统性的威胁。以Landsbanki为例,它通过冰岛在欧洲经济区(简称EEA,它使得一个国家可以不加入欧盟而进入任何欧洲单一市场)的成员资格来开展其在线银行业务。在EEA的“通行证”体系下,它可以在国外设立银行分支机构而由雷克雅未克进行监管,尤为突出的是其在英国和荷兰推出的名为“冰存”的网上银行服务。

But as Icesave grew, European authorities realised that Iceland’s coffers were far too small to provide deposit insurance to savers, and that its central bank lacked reserves to act as a credible lender of last resort in the case of a run. The British authorities pressed Landsbanki to create a subsidiary in London that would be supervised by British banking authorities, as its compatriot, Kaupthing, had done. It never did. When Landsbanki collapsed in October, the country ended up owing $8.2 billion to foreign internet depositors of its banks, an amount almost half the size of Iceland’s entire economy.

但随着“冰存”不断扩张,欧洲监管机构意识到冰岛的储备实在太小而无法为储户提供存款保险,还有它的央行没有足够的储备以在出现挤兑是充当最后贷款人。英国监管机构要求Landsbanki像其同胞Kaupthing银行那样在英国设立一家可由英国银行监管机构监管的附属机构。但Landsbanki却没这么做。当10月份Landsbanki崩溃的时候,冰岛最终为其银行欠了外国网上银行储户82亿美元的债务,这个数字几乎是冰岛经济总量的一半。

At the time, other big cross-border banks, such as Fortis, a Benelux bank, and Dexia, a Belgo-Dutch bank, were in deep trouble, and there were growing concerns among European officials that a country could be overwhelmed if it was home to a big international bank that failed. Landsbanki made this fear into reality. Partly as a result of the Iceland fiasco, the British government has written to the European Commission seeking urgent consideration of improvements to legislation of cross-border banking in the EEA, including better ways of protecting depositors in branches of foreign banks.

当时,其它大型跨国银行,如富通,一家比利时-卢森堡银行,还有德克夏,一家比利时-荷兰银行,都深陷于麻烦中,而欧洲官员们也越来越担忧如果一个国家的一家大型国际银行倒闭了该国可能被冲垮。Landsbanki使这种担忧变成了事实。部分由于冰岛的惨剧,英国政府致信欧洲委员会,寻求紧急修改在EEA内进行跨境银行业务的立法,包括更好的保护在外国银行分支机构的储户的利益。

Forever in your debt
债无止尽

In Iceland there are still many misgivings about repaying the huge debts incurred, as there are about other aspects of the IMF programme. A report in Morgunbladid, a national newspaper, claimed that relative to Iceland’s size, the debt to Icesave depositors is bigger than the reparations demanded of Germany by the Treaty of Versailles. Mr Egilsson of the employers’ confederation has written to the IMF’s local boss in Iceland urging him to scrap what he describes as ruinous capital controls.

在冰岛,对于偿还巨额外债还有许多的担心,因为还可能会有其它的IMF项目。一份冰岛的全国性报纸Morgunbladid声称,相对于冰岛的经济规模,冰岛欠下“冰存”储户的债务比《凡尔赛条约》中要求德国偿还的还要多。雇主联合会的艾基尔松已经致信冰岛当地的IMF主管,敦促其放弃“毁灭性的”资本管制。

In his unassuming whitewashed offices near the central bank, Geir Haarde, the prime minister, appears sympathetic to some of these concerns. “There is still a lot of legal argumentation saying we should not pay” the debt to Icesave depositors, he says, though he stresses that his government has agreed to reimburse them.

在其朴素的四墙徒壁的办公室里,冰岛总理盖尔?哈尔德显得对这些担心甚为同情。“还是有许多法律解释说我们可以不用偿付那些‘冰存’储户的”,他说,尽管他强调说他的政府已经同意会进行偿还。

He suggests that the government also thought long and hard before turning to the IMF. Already the country is chafing under interest rates that were pushed up by six percentage points to 18% during talks with the fund. “The interest-rate policy is probably the most difficult part for Icelanders to accept and understand,” he says. He hopes that rates will start to fall quite quickly early next year, but knows the IMF is concerned about a premature relaxation of monetary policy. “We will need to do it in a very careful way. [But] we have had high interest rates here for a long time and people are tired of them.”

他建议政府在求助于IMF之前应该想得长远和仔细一些。在与IMF进行商谈的时候该国已因为利率被推高6%至18%而如同热锅上的蚂蚁了。“利率政策可能是冰岛人最难以接受和理解的”,他说。他希望明年利率会开始迅速下降,但他知道IMF关心的是尽快实行宽松的货币政策。“我们需要以非常小心的方式来做。不过我们长久以来一直承受着高利率,而人们已经厌倦了。”

The status of the nationalised banks is another sore point. After being seized by the government (Kaupthing was given an unhelpful shove into bankruptcy when the British government put its London subsidiary into administration), they have defaulted on their huge international liabilities. These have been placed into “old banks”, while local-currency deposits and loans are in “new banks” that are meant to restore a semblance of normality to Iceland’s financial system. However, even the new banks have written off about 50% of their loans, implying that they do not expect that portion to be repaid. With interest rates as high as they are, and principal payments indexed to inflation, Jon Jonsson, an Icelandic international banker, says the solvency of even the new banks remains in doubt.

被国有化的银行是另外一个令人伤心的地方。自从被政府接管之后(当英国政府管制了Kaupthing在伦敦的附属机构之后,它便无助地被强迫破产了),他们已经拖欠了巨额的外债。这些外债被放在“旧银行”,而本币存款和贷款则放在“新银行”以在表面上显示冰岛的金融体系已恢复正常。然而,即便是那些新银行也已经为其贷款撇帐了大约50%,意味着他们不准备拿回这部分钱了。利率如此之高,而本金的偿还又计入通胀指数,强?强森,一位冰岛的国际银行家,说即使那些新银行的清偿力也存在着问题。

Mr Haarde says one possible solution is to hand the banks over to their biggest foreign creditors. Talks are under way with some, such as Germany’s Bayerische Landesbank, he says. (On December 1st the German bank announced huge job cuts and said it would receive about euro30 billion of state support, partly because of its losses in Iceland. It is not keen to take over an Icelandic bank.)

哈尔德说,一个可能的解决办法是把银行交给她们最大的债权人来处置。有一些已经在谈判中了,比如德国的Bayerische Landesbank,他说。(12月1日这家德国银行宣布削减大量的职位,并说它将得到大约300亿欧元的国家支持,这部分是因为其在冰岛的损失。它并不热衷于接手一家冰岛银行。)

The key to stabilising Iceland will be the currency, and here the responsibility falls most heavily on Mr Oddsson. In recent days the krona has shot up in value against the euro, partly because the central bank has eased the controls on inflows of foreign exchange. But capital outflows are still restricted and there are growing fears among business people that the capital controls will drive the last vestiges of foreign investment out of Iceland.

使冰岛稳定的关键是货币,而责任则主要落在奥德森身上。近几天,冰岛克朗兑欧元急剧上升,这部分是由于央行已放松外汇流入。但资本外流仍然被限制,商务人士对资本管制将把残存的最后一点外国投资都逼出冰岛的担忧不断在升温。

It is also clear, however, that lifting the controls too quickly may lead to huge capital flight. Mr Oddsson makes little attempt to conceal his disquiet over these matters. Capital controls are “not a line taken from the Bible,” he says. “They were the recommendation of the IMF. It was the government’s call and after it was done we supported it.” That hardly amounts to a ringing endorsement.

同样明确的是,太早取消管制可能导致巨额资本外逃。奥德森并没有尝试隐藏他对此的焦虑。资本管制“不是《圣经》教导我们的”,他说,“它是IMF的建议。它是政府要求做的,当它被采用了,我们会支持它。”这听起来似乎不像是有力的支持。

The currency is also where the politics of the crisis are likely to prove most troublesome. It is not just left-wing agitators who blame Mr Oddsson for the crisis. (Ever the politician, he expresses sympathy, saying the protests “describe a huge disappointment of the people”.) He has regularly tussled with members of the country’s business elite and the large parts of the media that are owned by Baugur, Iceland’s most prominent international firm. In an impassioned speech to Iceland’s Chamber of Commerce last month, he urged the police to investigate the activities of bank executives. One Icelandic firm had debts of 1 trillion kronur ($5.3 billion) to the three big domestic banks, more than all the banks’ equity combined, he said. “The Central Bank of Iceland should probably place dead last on the list of those in need of investigation,” he declared.

货币也似乎是危机政治证明最为麻烦的内容。不仅仅左翼分子利用危机来批评奥德森。(即便对于那些政客他都表示了同情,他说这些抗议“描述了人们的巨大失望”。)他定期地与这个国家的商业精英和众多冰岛最显赫的跨国公司博格旗下的媒体进行辩论。在上个月给冰岛商务部的一次充满激情的演讲中,他敦促警方调查银行高管们的行动。一家冰岛公司欠了三大国内银行总计1万亿冰岛克朗(合53亿美元)的债务,这比所有银行资本加起来还多,他说。“冰岛央行可能需要列出一份需要调查的人的名单来”他宣称。

The bankers, in turn, blame him for almost everything, especially the blundered rescue of Glitnir, the smallest of the three banks, in late September, which turned a private-banking crisis into a sovereign-debt one. He has been criticised for his handling of the overvaluation of the krona, which caused all manner of unhealthy speculation. He is also accused of overlooking the inadequacy of the central bank’s lender-of-last-resort facility.

银行家们反过来把他批得几乎一无是处,特别是九月底对Glitnir(三大银行中最小的一家)的救助不力,这使得私有银行危机转变成了国家债务危机。他被批评在处理冰岛克朗币值高估问题时,导致了种种恶性投机。他还被指责忽视了央行作为最后贷款人的却储备不足的问题。

An answer across the sea
海的另一边的答案

Whatever the merits of these arguments, the blame game complicates a debate which some consider crucial to Iceland’s attempts to escape from its crisis: a move towards adopting a hard currency, specifically the euro. The nationalistic Mr Oddsson, who has spent his working life in Reykjavik, is thought to be against this. (He dismisses the euro zone as a “Shangri-La”.) Iceland’s international business people, buoyed by the arguments of academics such as Mr Buiter, believe that the crisis has exposed the dangers of relying on a small, fragile currency.

不管这些争吵是否起到作用,但互相指责却使得一个一些人认为对冰岛摆脱危机有重要意义的辩论变得复杂起来:走向采用一种硬通货,更确切地说,欧元。国家主义者奥德森的工作生涯一直在雷克雅未克度过,他被认为会反对这点。(他蔑称欧元区是个“世外桃源”。)冰岛的国际商务人士受到毕维特这些学院派的言论鼓吹,认为危机已经使依赖于小而脆弱的货币的危险暴露出来了。

It would not be an easy decision. Iceland has kept out of the EU, not least to safeguard its cod-fishing quotas. The ECB has made clear that Iceland cannot adopt the euro unless it joins the EU first, which might take years. Some academics suggest unilateral “euroisation”, as Montenegro has done. This could be done with as little as euro100m to replace notes in circulation, a fraction of Iceland’s euro3 billion of international reserves. But such a unilateral step runs the risk of antagonising the EU. And it might not stop capital flight.

做出决定并不容易。冰岛一直置身于欧盟之外,这不仅仅是为了保证其捕捉鳕鱼的配额。欧洲央行已明确表示,冰岛要采用欧元必须先加入欧盟,而这需要花费好几年。有些学者建议可以像黑山共和国那样采取“单边欧元化”。这样做仅需用1亿欧元来取代流通的纸币,这个数目只是冰岛30亿欧元国际储备中的一小部分。但这样的单边行动会有惹怒欧盟的风险,同时也不能阻止资本外逃。

The Independence Party, which Mr Oddsson long led, has brought forward its national convention to January to discuss these matters, but it is divided on the issue. With the krona on life support, cool heads will be needed to stop the debate splitting the country. Mr Jonsson, the banker, believes the euro question could be as significant, in its way, as Iceland’s decision to adopt Christianity and throw out its pagan gods 1,000 years ago. If the krona finally goes the way of the pagans, there is a good chance that Mr Oddsson will go with it.

奥德森长期一直领导的独立党将其全国大会延至明年一月来讨论这些问题,但它在欧元化问题上却内部有分歧。在冰岛克朗处于生死关头的时候,人们应该冷静下来以免争论分裂了这个国家。银行家强森则相信欧元问题将在某种程度上类似冰岛于1000多年前放弃其异教信仰而投向基督教的转变。如果冰岛克朗真的像异教信仰一样被抛弃,那也将是让奥德森走人的一个好机会。
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终身成就奖英语达人才华横溢优秀斑竹二级笔译三级笔译

发表于 2010-3-18 01:14 | 显示全部楼层
貌似有字数限制,分篇发布。
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发表于 2010-3-18 01:15 | 显示全部楼层
请教版主,不知为何我把整篇译文贴上,发表后只出现一部分内容,用“字数统计”也没超过,我把它分成两篇另发一帖,发现也在那个地方断掉,烦请帮忙看看是什么原因,我已通过附件把整篇上传,可以的话请帮忙整篇贴上。

另外请帮忙删除我发的【2008.12.11】Cracks in the crust 冰川爆裂(二)。

谢谢。
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发表于 2010-3-18 01:15 | 显示全部楼层
7. 如何解决欧元符号问题
因论坛本身限制,无法正常显示欧元符号。因此凡是帖子中有欧元符号的地方,请替换为"euro",否则欧元后面的内容不能正常发布。

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请教版主,不知为何我把整篇译文贴上,发表后只出现一部分内容,用“字数统计”也没超过,我把它分成两篇另发一帖,发现也在那个地方断掉,烦请帮忙看看是什么原因,我已通过附件把整篇上传,可以的话请帮忙整篇贴上 ...


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发表于 2010-3-18 01:16 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢!还帮忙加了插图。。。




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明白了,谢谢提醒。




7. 如何解决欧元符号问题
因论坛本身限制,无法正常显示欧元符号。因此凡是帖子中有欧元符号的地方,请替换为"euro",否则欧元后面的内容不能正常发布。

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