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[经济学人] [2006.06.15] As China's Auto Market Booms, Leaders Clash Over Heavy Toll

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发表于 2010-4-28 23:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Bumpy Ride
颠簸之旅
As China's Auto Market Booms,  随着中国汽车市场的飞速发展
Leaders Clash Over Heavy Toll   决策者们在汽车造成的危害这一问题上产生重大分歧
Vehicles Foul Air, Jam Streets    机动车辆污染空气,阻塞交通,
But Plump Local Coffers;           但却促进了地方财政资金的增长;
Restrictions Remain Few            限制性规定仍不完善
McDonald's Targets a Niche       麦当劳找到了合适的发展方向
By GORDON FAIRCLOUGH and SHAI OSTER   高顿•菲尔克劳,赛﹒奥斯特
June 13, 2006                         2006.6.13



BEIJING -- Nearly 1,000 new cars hit the streets here every day, crowding a city already choked with pollution. Levels of nitrogen dioxide currently exceed the World Health Organization's clean-air guidelines by 78%.
北京——每天大约有1000辆新车上路,使本来已经污浊不堪的城市更加拥挤。二氧化氮的含量目前已经超出世界卫生组织提出的洁净空气的标准78个百分点。

The mayor, Wang Qishan, complains that the number of cars flooding the roads makes it "more difficult to run the city." Local officials are so worried about air quality for the 2008 summer Olympic Games that they are considering a temporary ban on private cars.
市长王岐山抱怨大量涌入公路的车辆使城市的交通更加“寸步难行”。地方官员也在为2008年夏季奥运会的空气质量担忧,所以他们正在考虑暂时禁止私家车的使用。

At the same time, the city owns Beijing Automotive Industry Corp., a car maker that has joint ventures with DaimlerChrysler AG and South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. Last year, the company and its affiliates made more than 500,000 cars, trucks and buses, employed 48,000 workers and paid more than $500 million in local taxes. By 2008, they expect to produce one million vehicles a year.
与此同时,北京汽车工业控股有限公司,一家与戴姆勒克莱斯勒和韩国现代汽车公司合资的汽车公司位于北京市。去年,公司和其下属企业共生产了50余万辆的轿车,卡车和公共汽车,雇佣员工48000名,向地方纳税总额超过5亿美元。到2008年,公司预计每年生产机动车100万辆。

After various on-and-off restrictions, Beijing, which has more vehicles than any other Chinese city, has almost no limitations on car usage.
经过了各种断断续续的限制之后,北京这个在中国拥有最多机动车辆的城市,已经取消了对汽车的各种限制。

"This is something of great difficulty for us. The contradiction of population and the environment -- for us and the whole of China," said Mr. Wang at a March meeting.
王市长在三月召开的一次会议上说,:“我们面临着很大的困难,人口与环境之间的矛盾不仅存在于北京,而且遍及全国。

The rise of the automobile highlights the wrenching balancing act China faces as it tries to join the ranks of modern consumer societies: improving living standards and creating jobs for the country's 1.3 billion people while keeping pollution and oil demand under control.
汽车产业的崛起给正在努力跻身现代消费社会的中国提出了一个亟待解决的平衡问题:一方面,它使人们的生活水平得以提高,为13亿人口提供了更多的就业机会,但另一方面也对控制污染和降低油耗提出了要求。

Officials from China's central government are divided over how to proceed. The country's powerful economic planners see the auto industry as a "pillar" of the national economy. Others, including those from the State Environmental Protection Administration, argue that China needs to limit car use and move more quickly to tighten clean-air rules.
中国政府的官员们在汽车工业未来的发展问题上意见不一致。国家强有力的经济决策者们认为汽车产业是国民经济的支柱,另一些包括国家环保局在内的有关人士则认为中国应该限制汽车的使用,并尽快制定有关限制空气污染方面的法规。

Local leaders are also torn. Many city and provincial governments, like Beijing, have a financial stake in the industry and are eager to capitalize on ramped-up production. But they also face complaints from citizens about snarled traffic and dirty air.
地方官员也对这一问题感到十分苦恼。许多像北京一样的省市政府都在汽车产业上有所投资,并希望可以通过扩大的生产规模获取更多的收益。但同时也必须面对市民有关交通拥挤和空气污染方面的抱怨。



China's car debate stands out because its population is the planet's largest. Across the country, rising incomes and falling auto prices have led to an explosion in car sales, up 54% in the first three months of 2006, compared with the year-earlier period. China's auto market is now the world's second biggest, and the motor-vehicle industry employs 1.7 million workers.
有关中国汽车问题的争论最为突出,因为中国的人口位居世界第一。全国范围内的工资上涨和汽车价格的下调使汽车的销量猛增。在2006年的前三个月与去年同期相比,就上涨了54个百分点。中国目前是世界第二大汽车市场,并且汽车业雇佣的员工多达170万人。

The shift is happening so quickly that McDonald's Corp. said last week that it expects at least half of its new outlets in China to be drive-throughs.
由于汽车产业的迅速发展,麦当劳公司上周表示他们在中国新开的连锁店将至少有半数开设“不下车快餐服务”。

And the car craze here has just begun. China now has about 25 vehicles -- and fewer than seven cars -- for every thousand people, roughly the same level as the U.S. had in 1915. If auto sales continue apace, there will be more than 130 million vehicles on China's roads by 2020 -- up from about 33 million today. That could help double China's demand for crude oil and lead to a sharp increase in greenhouse-gas emissions, according to estimates by the government and environmental groups.
对汽车的狂热才刚刚开始,中国现在每1000人中拥有机动车25辆,其中小轿车的数量不足7辆,几乎相当于美国1915年的水平,如果汽车销量继续飞速增长,那么截至2020年,在中国公路上行驶的车辆将会由目前的3300万辆攀升到1亿3000万辆。据政府官员及环境组织成员的估计,那时中国对原油的需求量将会翻番,进而导致温室效应气体排放量的大幅度增加。

"If we follow the current track of consumption patterns to develop the automobile in China," says Pan Yue, vice minister of the State Environmental Protection Administration, "the world will not be able to support" it.
国家环保局副局长潘岳说:“如果我们继续遵循目前的消费模式来发展汽车产业,整个世界将无法承受。

Complicating matters, Chinese gasoline contains high levels of sulfur and other contaminants. It will take years and billions of dollars to improve China's refineries to make higher-quality, cleaner-burning gas.
So far, calls for stricter car controls have been largely muted by the powerful National Development and Reform Commission, which sets the country's economic-development policies.
中国的汽油中硫和其它污染物的含量很高,这就使问题更加复杂化。因为要化很长时间及数亿美元来改进中国的炼油厂以生产出高质量和更加清洁的汽油。到目前为止,那些要求控制汽车业发展的呼声在负责制定国家经济发展政策的国家发展与改革委员会的压制下变得十分微弱。

The commission has put a priority on expanding the economy to generate jobs for the millions streaming into cities from China's countryside. Officials of provincial governments and cities -- whose performance is judged largely on their ability to boost gross domestic product -- are rushing into auto-making.
Guangdong, long known as China's export capital for consumer goods, says it wants to triple its auto-making capacity by 2010.国家发展与改革委员会尤为重视汽车产业的发展。为数百万从农村涌入城市的人们提供工作机会,省市级政府的官员也大多支持汽车制造产业,因为他们的业绩是通过国内生产总值来评定。广东一直被看作是中国消费品出口之都,广东希望到2010年汽车的生产能力能扩大两倍。

"How many color TV sets and refrigerators are equal to one automobile?" asked Huang Huahua, governor of Guangdong on China's southern coast, at a government conference earlier this year. "You are a fool if you don't make cars....If we still depend on color TVs and a few similar industries, then Guangdong's 9% GDP growth can no longer be assured.
"在今年年初的一次政府工作会议上,中国南方沿海的广东省省长黄华华提出一个问题:“多少冰箱和彩电的价值才相当于一辆汽车?”“不生产汽车就是傻瓜”,“如果我们仍依靠彩电及类似的几种产业,那么广东每年9%的GDP增长率则得不到保证”。



In 1997, Anhui province, one of the poorest in China, teamed up with the city of Wuhu to start a government-owned car maker, Chery Automobile Co. Last year, Chery sold nearly 190,000 vehicles, more than double its sales from 2004. The company says it has had trouble expanding capacity to keep pace with demand for its cars, which sell from $3,700 up to about $25,000.
1997年,中国最穷的省份之一安徽省和芜湖市联合创办了一家政府所有的汽车制造公司——奇瑞汽车公司。去年,奇瑞售出近190000辆汽车,比2004年翻了一番。公司说他们很难继续扩大生产能力以满足市场的需求。奇瑞公司汽车的售价从3700美元到25000美元不等。

In some cases, local governments share directly in car manufacturers' profits. Shanghai's government, for example, controls and receives dividend payments from state-owned Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., which has joint ventures with both General Motors Corp. and Volkswagen AG.
有时候,地方政府可以直接分享制造商的利润分红,例如上海市政府就掌控着国有的上海汽车工业公司,并从中获得分红。该公司与美国通用公司和德国大众合资建立企业。

For most of the auto's history in China, there were few cars and different priorities. After the Communists rose to power in 1949, China's auto industry focused on building military vehicles, buses and trucks. The Cultural Revolution of the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, which led to mass upheavals, hobbled the industry.
在中国汽车的制造史上,大多数时间里,只生产少数几种车型,并且有不同的侧重点。1949年中国共产党执政以后,中国的汽车产业以制造军用车辆﹑公共汽车和卡车为重点。60年代中期到70年代中期的文化大革命造成了大规模的社会动乱,使汽车产业的发展举步维艰。

A Shift in the 1980s
80年代的转变

China's modern car market grew slowly at first, as demand for relatively expensive cars was limited largely to government and Communist Party officials. After launching market overhauls more than two decades ago, China decided to bring in foreign expertise. In 1983, state-run Beijing Automotive signed the first joint-venture deal with American Motors Corp. to make Jeeps. Soon after, Shanghai Automotive went into business with Volkswagen.中国的现代汽车市场起初增长很慢,由于对相对高价轿车的需求仅仅局限于党政官员20年前发起市场改革之后,中国决定引进外国企业。1983年,国有北京汽车集团与美国汽车公司达成了协议,成立了第一家合资的汽车制造厂,生产吉普车。不久以后,上海汽车集团与德国大众也建立了合资企业。

By 1994, the government had decided that cars should play a central role in driving the country's industrial engine. The official government policy nodded toward environmental concerns, saying the government "encourages" the use of "fuel-efficient and low-polluting" vehicles. At the same time, however, officials also pressed for stepped-up production.1994年,政府决定汽车产业在推动国家工业发展方面应该发挥核心作用。政府部门的政策考虑到环境方面的忧虑,说政府“鼓励”使用“省油低污染”的车辆。但与此同时,政府部门也要求继续提高产量。

Even then, officials in Beijing and other cities were worried about mounting congestion and auto pollution. Beijing put varying restrictions on small cars and trucks, limiting where and when they could drive.
Development of mass transit lagged in Beijing and many other cities, creating more demand for cars. In the late 1990s, more than a dozen cities wanted subway systems. But China's central government delayed approval, partly due to budget constraints. Beijing's main east-west subway line was only finished in 2000, and large parts of the city are still inaccessible by rail.甚至从那个时候开始,北京和其它城市的官员就开始为不断增多的交通堵塞和汽车污染而担忧了,北京就曾对小轿车和卡车的行车路段和时间做过限制性规定。公共交通系统在北京及其他许多城市里发展滞后,这就造成了对轿车的更大需求。在上世纪90年代末,十余个城市都要求修建地铁,但是中央政府一直未予批准,一定程度上是由于政府财政的约束。北京主要的地铁东西干线2000年才完工,但是许多地区仍不通地铁。

The central government, meanwhile, was looking to strengthen the car industry by bringing in additional foreign expertise and resources. In 1997, GM won a coveted deal for a joint venture with Shanghai Automotive that now produces Buicks and other models. Many other foreign auto makers followed.
After China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, falling prices sparked a jump in car purchases by China's more-affluent consumers.与此同时,中央政府希望通过引进外国企业和资金加快汽车产业的发展。1997年,美国通用汽车公司赢得了觊觎已久的一笔交易,与上海汽车集团成立了合资企业,目前生产别克和其它车型,许多其它外国的汽车公司也纷纷效仿这一做法。2001年中国加入世贸组织之后,下落的汽车价格激起了中国较富有的消费群体买车的热潮。
Today, demand by middle-class buyers is surging as salaries rise and car prices, driven down by competition, plummet.现今,由于工资的上涨和因竞争引起的车价下调,中产阶级的买车需求也不断高涨。

Liu Yunzhi, a 25-year-old computer-hardware designer, bought his first car, a $5,200 Chinese-made hatchback, soon after moving into an apartment in a Beijing suburb last year. He used it to haul furniture to his new home from Ikea.
刘云志今年25岁,是一名电脑硬件的设计人员,去年他搬进北京郊区的公寓之后不久便花5200美元买了他的第一辆车,一辆带掀式斜背的小轿车。他用这辆新车把从宜家买的家具运到新家。

"You don't have to be a rich guy to own a car," says Mr. Liu. "You can enjoy your life more."
刘先生说:“现在不是只有有钱人才能买得起车了”。“你可以更好地享受生活”。

Price wars have heated up as more local manufacturers have entered the fray. Mr. Liu's hatchback, for instance, was made by Geely Holding Group, which moved into autos after making motorcycles. BYD Co., a producer of cellphone batteries, got into the car business in 2003 after acquiring a formerly state-run assembly plant.随着更多地方制造商的加入,价格战也日益升温。比如说刘先生的小轿车是由吉利汽车公司制造的,而其前身是一家生产摩托车的公司。BYD公司是一家生产手机电池的公司,在收购了一条国有的汽车生产线之后,也于2003年投入汽车生产。

Rolling Stock
滚动的资本

In Chongqing, a city in southwest China that is hoping to become the nation's car capital, auto factories spread over more than 20 million square meters, or around 5,000 acres. Metal-stamping plants, paint shops and assembly lines churned out more than 600,000 cars and other vehicles last year -- capacity that city officials hope to more than double by 2010.
位于中国西南的重庆市希望成为全国的汽车之都。汽车厂房的面积达2000万平方米(近5000英亩)。冲压金属车间﹑喷漆厂和组装生产线去年产出60万辆小轿车和其它车辆,市领导希望到2010年生产能力可以翻番。

Even in Shanghai's relatively diverse economy, the auto industry employed nearly 416,000 people, accounting for about 3.4% of GDP and more than $900 million in taxes in 2005, according to government figures.
据政府数据统计,即使在上海这样一个经济相对多元化的城市里,汽车产业的从业人员也有416000余人,汽车产业的生产总值占GDP的3.4%,纳税超过9亿美元。

Li Qisheng is 24 and has spent two years working on assembly lines for Geely in Zhejiang province, south of Shanghai. The son of farmers, Mr. Li now earns about $250 a month, or about $1.27 an hour, doing quality-control checks on new vehicles.
李奇生,24岁,已经在上海南部浙江省内的吉利公司的生产线上工作了两年。生于一个农民家庭,李奇生现在每月能挣250美元,大约每小时1.27美元,他主要负责新车的质量检测。

Mr. Li, who also receives subsidized meals and housing in a company dormitory, says he sends about half of his earnings home every month. "It relieves the pressure on my parents," he says. Last year, his family used the money to build a new, five-story concrete house to replace an old two-floor wood home. "I'm proud of myself," Mr. Li says.
李先生住在公司提供的宿舍里,并且有伙食补贴。他说每月大约把一半儿的收入寄回家,“这样就减轻了父母的负担”他说,以前他家住在一个两层的木屋里,去年,家里用他寄的钱盖了一座5层的水泥楼房。李先生说他很自豪。

The trickle-down of industry benefits has made it hard to put on the brakes. In 2000, Shanghai decided to tighten restrictions on new car registrations, auctioning off a limited number of license plates annually. But it has gradually loosened the strictures.
源源不断的收益致使汽车业的发展很难得到抑制。2000年,上海决定限制对新车的牌照登记,每年只定量拍卖一些汽车牌照,但是这种限制性措施也被逐渐放宽。

During the first year of the new program, Shanghai issued 14,000 plates for an average price of $1,700. Last year, it issued 67,078 for an average price of more than $4,000.
实施新规定的第一年,上海共发售了14000个牌照,平均价格为1700美元,去年,共发售67078个牌照,平均价格超过4000美元。

"Residents have a very strong demand of car use," says Zhu Junyi, a researcher at the Shanghai Information Center, a government think tank. The government, he adds, "has to try its best to meet the demand."
上海信息中心的研究员朱军义说:“市民买车的愿望十分强烈”,他补充说道:“政府要尽力满足这种需求”。上海信息中心也被称为政府的智囊团。

High Toll
严重的污染

The toll is high. Exhaust from an estimated 2.5 million vehicles has helped make Beijing one of the most polluted cities in China, even though it has shuttered many of the coal-burning factories that once fouled its air. In 2004, levels of airborne particulate in Beijing were more than six times as high as in New York, and sulfur-dioxide levels were more than double, according to Chinese and U.S. government figures.
但汽车的污染十分严重,尽管北京已经关闭了许多曾经烧煤的工厂,但大约250万辆汽车排放的尾气仍然使北京成为中国受污染最为严重的城市之一。据中国和美国政府的数据统计,2004年,北京空气中的颗粒含量是纽约的6倍之多,二氧化硫的含量也是纽约的两倍以上。


It wasn't until 2000 that China passed its first comprehensive emissions law and made catalytic converters, which clean vehicle exhaust, mandatory. China has modeled is auto-emissions standards after those in Europe. Still, most of the country still lags behind Europe, using rules implemented there back in 1996. Beijing has a stricter standard, in line with regulations set by the European Union in 2000. The entire nation is slated to move to that cleaner standard by 2008.
直到2000年,中国才通过第一个综合性的尾气排放法规,强制使用净化尾气的催化剂。中国以欧洲的标准规定尾气排放量,但国家的大部分地区仍滞后于欧洲的标准,使用欧洲1996年的规定。北京的标准更加严格,与欧盟2000年制定的规定相一致。到2008年,全国都将使用这个标准。

Emissions testing for cars has been spotty, and experts complain that little is known about what comes out of China's tailpipes. Beijing officials say that more than 60% of the vehicles in the city have some emissions controls, an acknowledgment that up to 40% of them -- mostly older models -- have none at all.
对汽车尾气的测试是有缺陷的,专家指出很少有人知道中国汽车排气管排放的是什么,北京官员说北京市内超过60%的车采取了尾气控制措施,,承认多达40%的车辆——大多为老车型——根本没有采取任何控制尾气排放的措施。

In 2005, China imposed its first fuel-efficiency standards, which some analysts say will eventually be stricter than in the U.S. Earlier this year, the central government called on cities like Beijing to lift bans originally imposed on small cars in order to encourage purchases of more energy-efficient models. The government also instituted a graduated tax on new cars, designed to discourage purchases of gas guzzlers.
2005年,中国实施了第一个节油标准,有些分析家认为这些标准最终会比美国的标准还要严格。今年年初,中央政府号召像北京这样的城市取消对小型轿车的限制,以鼓励人们购买更加节能的车型,政府对新车还规定了累进税制,目的是抑制人们购买耗油量大的车型。

But to really limit cars' environmental toll and energy consumption, experts such as Lee Schipper, director of research at the World Resources Institute's Embarq Center for Transportation and the Environment in Washington, D.C., say China needs to levy road-use fees, lift gas prices and encourage the use of mass transit, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles.
但为了有效地减少汽车的环境污染和能源消耗,有些专家如李奇柏——世界资源协会下设的华盛顿交通与环境Embarq中心主任,说中国需要征收道路使用费、提高油价、鼓励使用公共交通系统以及混合动力车和电动车。

"The rapid rate of growth is more than government institutions are prepared to deal with," says Mr. Schipper. When he suggests to local officials that Chinese cities limit the number of cars on the road, he says they resist. "They say: 'You can't restrict cars.' "
李奇柏先生说:“快速的增长率使政府部门措手不及”,当他向地方官员建议中国城市应该限制轿车的数量,这些官员们拒绝了,他们说“你不能限制人们使用汽车”。
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发表于 2010-4-28 23:41 | 显示全部楼层
首先,欢迎新人发帖,希望兄弟能够一段中文、一段英文,这样方便阅读。
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发表于 2010-4-29 00:06 | 显示全部楼层
辛苦了,先改下格式,有空来拜读!
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