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[经济学人] [2009.04.16] Cuba and the United States 古巴和美国

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:44 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Cuba and the United States
古巴和美国

It takes two to rumba  
伦巴要两个人跳

Apr 16th 2009 | HAVANA
From The Economist print edition


Raúl Castro’s reaction to a small American olive branch may be even more cautious than Barack Obama’s offering of it
劳尔•卡斯特罗谨慎对待美国伸出的橄榄枝



SO FAR the story has followed the script. Barack Obama’s administration on April 13th announced a loosening of the half-century old American economic embargo against Cuba, fulfilling a campaign promise. Officials said that all restrictions on visits and remittances to the island by Cuban-Americans will be scrapped, and that American firms would be allowed to provide telecoms services to Cubans, including telephone roaming and fibre-optic broadband connections with the United States (if Cuba agrees). The embargo itself will remain, at least until the American Congress decides otherwise.

到目前为止故事还是按照原来的脚本进展。贝拉克•奥巴马的内阁在4月13号宣布减轻对古巴长达一个世纪的经济制裁,并已制定实施计划。政府官员称,取消所有对于古巴裔美国人前往古巴的旅行限制和汇款限制,允许美国公司向古巴人民提供包括与美国连接的电话漫游和光纤宽带(如果古巴政府同意的话)等电信服务。经济制裁本身将会继续,至少要等到美国国会决定采用其他方法。

The measures thus amount to a change of tactics, rather than a fundamental policy shift. The administration hopes that additional material support to the Cuban people, and connecting them with the outside world, will help them to push for democracy. The changes are symbolically important. They may blunt, but not silence, calls from Latin American leaders at a Summit of the Americas to be attended by Mr Obama in Trinidad between April 17th and 19th for the United States to restore diplomatic relations with Cuba.

与其说这项措施是一项基本政策的改变,不如说只是一个策略上的改变。内阁政府希望通过对古巴人民额外的物质支持,增强与外界的联系以帮助他们推动民主进程。这项改变只是象征性的重要,他们可能执行的缓慢,但不是没有动作,4月17号至19号在特立尼达举行的美洲峰会,届时将有美洲各国领导人及美国总统奥巴马参加,此次峰会希望重建美国与古巴的关系。

The American Congress may go on to lift the ban on travel to Cuba by other Americans, and perhaps liberalise some trade. But there is a battle in Congress over the issue. For those who favour change, “the key issue is to understand that the embargo is not an instrument for [the] democratisation” of Cuba, argues Robert Pastor, who was in charge of relations with Latin America in the Carter administration. Others say the embargo should remain until Cuba frees its political prisoners.

美国国会可能会继续解除其他美国公民去古巴旅行的限制,或许扩大到一些贸易的自由。但是关于这一问题,国会议员意见不一。支持者如卡特政府负责拉美关系的罗伯特•帕斯特认为,“最主要的问题是要知道制裁并不是民主化的一个工具。”另一些人则认为在古巴释放政治犯以前,制裁不能停止。

In his new role as a blogger, Fidel Castro said that while he did not question Mr Obama’s sincerity, the measures did nothing to dismantle the “genocidal” embargo. And he scorned Brazil and other allies who have called for Cuba’s readmission to the Organisation of American States, saying that his country had no desire to rejoin the body from which it was suspended, at the United States’s behest, in 1962.

作为他的新身份,博客撰稿人菲德尔•卡斯特罗称他并不怀疑奥巴马先生的真诚,但是这些举措对于消除“种族灭绝式的制裁”没有任何作用。同时他还斥责了号召古巴加入美洲国家组织的巴西及其他同盟国,他说古巴早在1962年就没有任何意愿参加这个备受怀疑并听从美国的组织。

Raúl Castro, who replaced his elder brother as Cuba’s president last year, has said he wants “dialogue” with Mr Obama. The two governments have co-operated in the past about migration and drugs and could do so again. But on the main issue that divides them—Cuba’s communist system and its suppression of human rights—they remain as far apart as ever.

于去年接替他的长兄成为古巴新总统的劳尔•卡斯特罗称他愿意与奥巴马先生会谈,两国政府将就过去已经合作过的移民及毒品问题在次合作,但是对于两国意见不和的最重要的问题—古巴的共产主义制度及人权问题—将会继续持续下去。

On taking over, Raúl Castro raised the hopes of long-suffering Cubans when he first promised “changes of structure and concept” in the centrally-planned economy and then pledged to “improve people’s spiritual and material lives”. But his first year in office disappointed. He took timid steps to turn over more land to private farming, and gave more leeway to some small businesses, such as private taxi drivers. But Cubans have seen little or no improvement in their daily grind.

刚上台时,劳尔•卡斯特罗承诺要改变中央计划经济的“结构和内容”,并保证要“提高人们的精神和物质生活”,曾一度给遭受苦难的古巴人民带来希望。但是他上任的第一年成就不大,只采取了少量几步使土地私有化,给诸如私人出租车司机等小生意者提供做生意的灵活性。但是古巴人民悲苦的日常生活中几乎没有任何提高。

After several years of growth, due largely to subsidies from Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela, the economy has been battered by hurricanes, lack of credit and a plunge in the price of nickel, its main currency earner (apart from tourism). Workers are being sent home, workplace snacks and meals cut and even the traditional perk of beer, rum and (government-issue) cake for weddings and a free hotel room for the honeymoon was recently eliminated.

在连续几年经济增长以后(大部分来自雨果•查尔斯领导的委内瑞拉的资助),由于缺少储备金及镍价格大幅下跌(除了旅游业,镍是最主要的货币来源),古巴的经济在飓风的影响下严重受挫。大量工人闲置在家,工作地方的小吃店停业,甚至对啤酒 ,朗姆酒的原有津贴,以及由政府提供的婚礼用的蛋糕和蜜月期间免费的一间旅馆住房最近也被取消。

But Raúl has consolidated his power. Most dramatically, he shuffled the cabinet last month, purging Carlos Lage, who for the past 15 years had been de facto prime minister and economic supremo. Along with him went Felipe Pérez Roque, the foreign minister. Mr Lage (57), and Mr Pérez (44) symbolised for outsiders and some Cubans a hope of reform and of the transition to a Cuba without the Castro brothers.

但是劳尔加强了他的政权。在最近几个月,劳尔对内阁政府进行大幅改组,解除了卡洛斯•拉赫长达15年总理和经济部长的职务,另一位被解除职位的是外交部长费利佩•佩雷斯•罗克。拉赫(57岁)和佩雷斯(44岁)一直被外界和一些古巴人民认为是在没有卡斯特罗兄弟参与下,对古巴进行改革的希望。

That made them dangerous. In classic Stalinist fashion, they apologised for “errors”. Not only had they succumbed to “the nectar of power” and ambition, but also “the enemy outside built up their hopes with them,” Fidel said of the two men, whom he had promoted. His statement meant that he, rather than Raúl, took the blame for sackings which were unpopular with younger party members, says Mr Pastor, who visited Cuba last month.

这些希望使他们的处境变得危险。上个月访问过古巴的帕斯特先生说:在经典的斯大林主义的模式下,他们承认了自己的“错误”。菲德尔曾对他提拔的这两个人说,他们不仅是屈服在“权利的诱惑”下,还使“外界的敌人对他们抱有信心”。菲德尔的观点说明是他,而不是劳尔,应该被指责解除了两人的职务,一些年轻的党员对这项举措很不满。

Their fall from grace came as a shock to Cuba-watchers and has prompted conspiracy theories. The latest official version—leaked this month to foreign journalists without corroborating evidence—rings true. It centres on their ties to Conrado Hernández, a Spanish-Cuban businessman arrested earlier this year on suspicion of spying. Mr Hernández was a close personal friend of Mr Lage. Together with Mr Pérez and their families, they would meet at Mr Hernández’s ranch for roast pig, rum and dominoes. Talk, spiced with irreverent jokes, would turn (as it does in many Cuban homes) to how the Castro brothers were slowing needed reforms. These conversations were secretly recorded by Mr Hernández—and by Cuban intelligence.

古巴问题观察者们对于他们出其不意的跌落感到很震惊,并认为这是一场阴谋。据一名外国记者这个月泄露的最新的官方版本(没有确凿的证据证明是准确的),确实存在着小团体。这集中在这两个人同卡若多•赫楠迪斯的关系上,后者是位西班牙裔的古巴人,在今年早些时候应为被怀疑进行间谍活动而被捕。赫楠迪斯是拉赫的一位私人好友,连同佩雷斯和他的家人,他们可能在赫男迪斯经营的牧场烤乳猪,顺便喝点朗姆酒和玩玩多米诺骨牌。聊天,讲一些无伤大雅的笑话,(这在古巴家庭中很常见)可能会料到卡斯特罗兄弟怎么需要改革。而这些谈话被赫男迪斯和古巴情报人员秘密的录下来。

In all, Raúl Castro’s purge swept away eleven ministers, including most of the economic team. Their replacements are Raúl’s people, including several generals from the armed forces which he led for half a century. They will be charged with implementing a new law on “perfecting businesses”. This requires all state firms to act autonomously and adopt capitalist management and accounting, but without privatisation or adoption of other market mechanisms. This system was pioneered by the defence ministry in the late 1980s but faces bureaucratic resistance.

劳尔•卡斯特罗总共解除11位部长,大部分来自经济领域。接替他们的都是劳尔的亲信,包括几名跟随他半个世纪的军队将军。他们将共同承担执行“完善经济”的新的法律。这项法律要求在不动摇公有制和不触及其他市场机制的前提下,所有国企可以自主经营或采用资本主义形式的管理。其实这项体制早在1980年就被当时的国防部长提出,但是遭到官僚的抵制。

Although Fidel Castro has recently appeared to be in better health (he was close to death following repeated abdominal surgery in 2006, according to unofficial reports), the cabinet shuffle has ended his habit of running a parallel government from his own office. One of those sacked, Otto Rivero, ran “The Battle of Ideas”, a Fidel-era operation with a big budget for construction and other projects. These and other special projects, such as Havana’s biotechnology complex and computer-science university, have been transferred to relevant ministries. “There is just one government now,” a Cuban analyst said. “It is more collegiate and Raúl personally chairs every meeting. The point is not that the Fidelistas are out and Raulistas are in, but that there is a new way of doing business.”

虽然菲德尔•卡斯特罗最近健康状况有所好转(据非官方报道,他曾在2006年因为肠道手术一度生命危险),这次内阁改革结束了他一人掌权两个的政府的习惯。其中一名被解除职位的官员,奥托•里维洛,曾经掌管菲德尔时代一项关于建筑和其他项目的预算,被称之“思想的战斗”。这些特殊的项目包括哈瓦那的工程建筑群和计算机科学大学,这些项目已经被转交给其他部长掌管。“现在只有一个政府”一位古巴的分析家说,“参加每一次会议的都是劳尔任职的人。问题的重点不是菲德尔时代结束,劳尔时代开始,而是一种和以往不同的办事方法。”

This sets the stage for a long-overdue Communist Party Congress (the first since 1997) later this year. Such gatherings do not decide policy, they ratify it. That policy is continued one-party rule and a state-run economy that will be tweaked, rather than radically reformed. Future leaders will be drawn from the ranks of middle-aged provincial party secretaries and rising military officers, party insiders say. There will be no stars under Raúl Castro, no individual young leaders on whom outsiders can pin their hopes. This is the scenario that Mr Obama’s measures are intended to influence—and change. But on their own, they look unlikely to do so.

今年将要召开早该举行的共产党人民代表大会(始于1997年),这样的大会并不是要决定走什么样的路线,而是批准已定的路线。古巴将继续执行一党专政和国有经济体制,而古巴政府只是改进了这些政策,而不是从跟本上改革。据党内人士透露,未来的领导人将从中年的省委秘书长和新兴的军队官员中选拔出。在劳尔的内阁中将没有名人,没有党外人士插足的余地。这些就是奥巴马有意想影响,想改变的地方,但是对于古巴人来说,看起来他们并不想这么做。
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:54 | 显示全部楼层
第一段3行中“ fulfilling a campaign promise”,应该翻译为:履行了竞选的承诺。
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