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[经济学人] [2010.1.23]Sweden leans left again 瑞典右翼倾向再次消失

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发表于 2010-4-29 03:04 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Sweden leans left again  瑞典右翼倾向再次消失

Trouble at home
萧蔷之祸


Fredrik Reinfeldt’s government is falling out of favour with voters
弗莱德里克•赖因费尔特政府不再被选民看好


Jan 21st 2010
From The Economist print edition




“WE DID our best,” said Carl Bildt, as he handed over the presidency of the European Union to Spain at the start of January. The Swedish foreign minister takes pride in his country’s accomplishments, which included shepherding through the much-delayed Lisbon treaty, making progress with EU enlargement and doing some good work on financial regulation and climate change. Fredrik Reinfeldt, the prime minister, even averted a possible row among his colleagues in the delicate matter of filling top EU jobs. Most EU leaders praised Sweden’s centre-right government for its competent stewardship.

一月初,瑞典外长卡尔•比尔特将欧盟理事会常任主席(俗称欧盟总统)转交给西班牙时说道:“我们已经尽力了。”包括执行拖延已久的里斯本条约,加快欧盟东扩进展,做好经济金融管制和气候变化的工作等等,瑞典的这一系列成就让卡尔引以为豪。赖因费尔特总理甚至避免了同僚们在出任欧盟要职的敏感问题上的争吵。大多数欧盟领导者赞扬瑞典中央右翼政府管理工作很称职。

But Mr Reinfeldt’s voters are less happy. A recent poll put support for the opposition Social Democrats at 52%, giving them a whopping 11-point lead over the government. Mr Reinfeldt, who led his centre-right coalition to victory in 2006 after 12 years in the political wilderness, has just eight months left to narrow the gap before the next election, on September 19th.

然而赖因费尔特的选民们就没那么高兴了。最近的一项民意调查估计反对党社会民主党的支持率伪52%,超过政府达11个百分点。2006年,赖因费尔特在沉寂12年之后带领他的中央右翼联合政府走向成功。距离9月19号的大选只有8个月,莱因费尔特只有这点时间来缩短与对手的选票差距。

The economic crisis will make his task much harder. Along with most of the EU, Sweden’s economy started to recover in the second half of 2009, albeit slowly. But the previous 12 months of recession have left deep scars. Heavyweight Swedish companies such as Saab, Telia and the airline SAS have shed thousands of jobs. Although the government plans to keep its fiscal-stimulus measures in place, unemployment will rise further. The government predicts a level of 10.7% this year, up from 8.5% in 2009. Anders Borg, Sweden’s respected finance minister, concedes that the jobs situation “will remain difficult”.

经济危机使得莱因费尔特的任务更加艰巨。瑞典的经济随着欧盟的大部分国家一起在2009年下半叶开始缓慢恢复。但是过去12个月里经济衰退的影响余威尤烈。瑞典萨博汽车、特里亚电信、斯堪的纳维亚航空等重量级公司已经缩减了数千个岗位。尽管政府希望其财政激励措施奏效,失业率却更进一步增长。政府预计今年的失业率将由2009年的8.5%上升到10.7%。颇受人尊敬的瑞典财政部长安德斯•伯格不得不承认就业状况仍然不容乐观。

Public-spending and benefit cuts are likely to make life harder for the government. Many pensioners are complaining about the bipartisan formula that links pensions to GDP growth, since it has meant reduced pensions in the recession. Some welfare recipients are objecting to the government’s “heartless” efforts to get them back into the workforce. In hard times Swedes’ natural centre-left instincts tend to come to the fore.

公共支出、收益削减很有可能使政府运转更加艰难。自从两党准则将养老金与GDP增长挂钩,使得经济衰退时养老金数额缩减后,这一准则就被老年人们埋怨不休。一些接受社会福利救助的人反对政府要让他们重新投入工作的“冷酷”做法。瑞典人在困难时期的天生中间偏左的本能往往脱颖而出。(这句我真不明白)

One surprising result of the crisis has been a softening of opposition to the idea of adopting Europe’s single currency, the euro. Swedes rejected a proposal to join in a referendum in 2003. For the most part they have since shown little inclination to change their minds. A recent poll, however, reported a slim margin in favour of joining. Even the Centre Party, a member of the centre-right coalition, seems to be warming to the idea. But another referendum is unlikely to be held soon. The Social Democrats, who lost the previous one, have said they do not want the issue put to voters during the next parliament.

经济危机带来了一个相当令人吃惊的结果,它软化了对采用欧洲单一货币——欧元的反对意见。瑞典人拒绝了参加2003年公投的提议。自那以后多数情况下瑞典人不太愿意改变想法。然而最近的一项民意调查显示支持参加的票数微微占了上风。甚至中央右翼联合政府的一员——中央党,也似乎对这提议好感升温。可惜下次公投不会很快举行。社会民主党上次公投败北后称其不想在下次会议期间将这个问题踢给选民。

If Mr Reinfeldt ends up losing in September to the Social Democrats’ Mona Sahlin, it will have historical resonance. Sweden’s previous centre-right government, an energetic reforming one led by Mr Bildt in the early 1990s, lost in 1994 largely because it had the misfortune to be hit by an economic crisis. Something similar occurred in the late 1970s. If it happens this September as well, Mr Reinfeldt might be forgiven for concluding that, in Sweden, the centre-right is forever jinxed by crises that are largely not of its making.

如果莱因费尔德在9月份输给社会民主党的蒙娜•沙林,这会是历史事件的重演。20世纪90年代早期比尔特领导的前瑞典中央右翼政府进行了大力改革,却在1994年大选上因为经济危机的影响而惨遭滑铁卢。20世纪70年代后期也发生了类似事件。如果9月份的选举如历史所见,莱因费尔德可能因为这样一个规律而被谅解,那就是:在瑞典,中央右翼派总是因为危机而不是决策问题遭遇厄运。


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后记:选了两篇文,但是因为忙别的时间不够,想放弃的时候,我告诉自己:千万不要让自己懒惰下来,再忙再紧再难,哪怕文章不是很精细,都一定要坚持下去。交了文,我再慢慢修改之~
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