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[经济学人] [2007-4-26]The yen and the carry trade:Out with a whimper

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发表于 2010-4-29 02:15 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
The yen and the carry trade
日元与利差交易


Out with a whimper
不再哭诉
translated by Wang Yi


Apr 26th 2007 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition

Japanese individuals take up where the foreign carry traders left off
日本个人投资者进入了国外利差交易者离开的市场

TWO months ago, when a sudden burst of volatility broke over the world's financial markets, concern focused on the “carry trade”—the apparently widespread practice of borrowing yen at dirt-cheap interest rates in order to buy higher-yielding assets in America, Australia or even Iceland. The carry trade, analysts and policymakers complained, had driven the yen to unnaturally low levels. Conversely, an all-too-sudden unwinding of carry-trade positions risked destabilising global markets, as everyone rushed for the exits and the yen spiked. At the end of February, such predictions appeared to be coming true: between February 23rd and March 5th, the yen shot up from ¥121 to the dollar to ¥116.
两个月前,全球金融市场出现巨幅动荡,这使人们集中关注“利差交易”----明显广泛存在的通过借入极低利率的日元来购入美国,澳大利亚甚至冰岛的高回报资产。分析师和决策者抱怨,利差交易已使日元降到非自然的低水平。相反的,利差交易头寸突然平仓使得已不稳定的全球市场更具风险,因为每个人匆忙退出交易,日元极速升值。二月底,这些预计看来变成了现实:在2月23日到3月5日之间,日元对美元汇率从121円升值到116円。

Since then, however—not very much. Most of the world's stockmarkets have gone back to floating happily upwards. Volatility in financial markets has declined. Meanwhile, the yen has drifted back towards ¥119. Curiously, though, the currency's recent slide has taken place without any help from carry traders, whose positions, if anything, are being unwound. It is worth wondering whether the carry trade has been exaggerated.
不过从那时开始程度就减弱了。世界上大部分股市开始欢快的回升。金融市场的动荡降幅。其间,日元汇率回落到119円。不过奇怪的是,套息交易(非但没有愈演愈烈,反而)在不断平仓,其并不是导致近来日元走软的原因。这值得人们怀疑利差交易是否被夸大了。

Admittedly, the size of the market is fiendishly hard to gauge. Earlier this year Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's deputy finance minister for international affairs, put the trade at $80 billion-160 billion. That the carry trade exists at all is gleaned only indirectly. One clue comes from financing trends among foreign banks in Japan. Whereas loans last year barely grew for Japan's banking sector as a whole, yen financing by foreign banks shot up by ¥7.4 trillion ($64 billion); foreigners are reckoned to be mainly responsible for the carry trade.
需要承认的是,这个市场的规模及其难以估测。今年早些时候,日本财务省负责国际事务的次官Hiroshi Watanabe估计交易额在800亿到1600亿美元之间。因为利差交易的存在就只能通过间接的方式来收集信息。一条线索来自于日本外资银行的金融走势。在日外资银行的融资趋势是线索之一。去年,在日本本土银行发放的贷款并未显著增长的情况下,外资银行的放贷量飙升了7.4万亿日元(640亿美元);外国投资者可说是对利差交易负有主要责任。

Another clue comes from dollar/yen positions in international money markets. As recently as last May these positions, on balance, were long yen, but that changed and in February net short positions reached a record $17.8 billion. Economists at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo reckon that the total size of the yen carry trade is perhaps two to five times the size of money-market transactions, since much of the business is unrecorded, conducted over-the-counter. Assuming the trade's total size to be at the top of the Goldman Sachs range puts the February peak towards the bottom end of Mr Watanabe's estimate.
另一条线索来自于国际货币市场美元/日元头寸。近期来说,到去年五月为止这些头寸,总而言之是多(买入)的日元,但这种情况变了,二月份空头净头寸位达到了178亿美元。东京高盛的经济学家估算日元利差交易的总额可能是货币市场交易量的2到5倍,因为大部分此类交易没有记录,都是在市场外完成的交易。假定交易总额是高盛所述范围的最大值,那2月份的峰值直逼Watanabe所预计的底线。

Since then, however, short yen positions have fallen sharply, to just two-fifths of their peak levels. A great unwinding of the carry trade, in other words, has taken place, but with very little of the predicted turbulence. What is more, a powerful resurgence in the carry trade seems unlikely. For the trade to be tempting to speculators, there must be low levels of volatility and large differentials in short-term interest rates to offset the risk of adverse currency moves. Yet Japanese rates, of 0.5%, look as if they are ineluctably heading up. On April 27th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will publish its half-yearly outlook, which is expected to be upbeat. The BoJ is eager to “normalise” interest rates, which until a year ago were set at zero to counter deflation. Eisuke Sakakibara, a predecessor of Mr Watanabe's who is now out of government, predicts that the central bank will raise rates to 0.75% as soon as May. Most economists expect a move in the autumn, with another quarter-point rise early next year. Either way, the trend is towards a narrowing of interest-rate differentials, making the carry trade less profitable.
然而自那时起,日元空头头寸急剧下降至峰值的仅2/5。也就是说,套息交易者开始大量平仓,但这却没有引起预期中的混乱。换一种说法,利差交易发生了大规模的抛售,但却几乎没有发生所预期的市场动荡。更甚者,利差交易不太可能会有强有力的复苏。因为这种交易如果对投机者来说要具有诱惑力,必须有低水平的波动,短期利率的巨大差异来抵消汇率货币不良走势带来的风险。虽然日元的利率只有0.5%,看起来他们不可避免的会上升。4月27日,日本银行将出版其半年度的展望,对其的期望是乐观的。日本银行急于是利率正常化,因为一年前因为通货紧缩而把利率调整为零。Watanabe的前任Eisuke Sakakibara现在已不在政府部门工作,预计中央银行最快会在五月份吧利率调整为0.75%。大多数经济学家预计到秋季才有变化,明年早期的一个季度还会继续上升。不管怎样,趋势是减小利率差异,使得利差交易获利更少。

Slowly, attention is likely to shift to a potentially more powerful bunch of market participants: individual Japanese investors. Japanese households have plenty of savings, but for years they have been averse to risk, keeping their savings in low-yielding yen. Now that is changing. These investors are more concerned about long-term yields, and in Japan low long-term rates are unlikely to be much affected by rising short-term ones—ten-year government bonds yield just 1.65% compared with 4.64% for equivalent American treasuries and 5.83% for Australian ones.
慢慢的,关注似乎转向了另一群潜在的有力的市场参与者。日本个人投资者。日本家庭拥有大量存款,但这些年他们一直反对冒险,即使利率很低,也都存在银行里。现在情况有所变化。这些投资者现在更为关注长期投资回报,而且在日本低长期利率不太会受到短期利率上升的明显影响----十年期的政府公债回报率仅1.65%,相比而言,在美国国该回报率是4.64%,澳大利亚则是5.83%。

This helps to explain a surge in the purchase of foreign securities by individuals, chiefly through investment trusts. Investment-trust buying was ¥12.9 trillion in 2006 (in 2002 there was net selling), bringing their total holdings of foreign securities to ¥45.4 trillion. In addition, retail investors' direct share of Japan's foreign-currency market may be 20-30%, whereas individuals' holdings of foreign currency exceed foreigners' holdings of Japanese securities. The clue to the yen's future, in other words, lies with the little man.
这很好解释了更多的人购买国外证券商品的趋势,主要通过投资信托方式。2006年的投资信托买入额为129000亿日元(2002年还没有这种方式),国外证券的总持有量达到454000亿日元。另外,个人投资者在日本外币市场可能直接拥有20-30%份额,尽管日本个人投资者持有的外币额超过国外投资者所拥有的日本证券的额度。这是日元未来走势的迹象,换句话说,由个人决定。

这篇文章译得有点晕|...OTZ,欢迎点评讨论
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:35 | 显示全部楼层
Out with a whimper
含怨而去?.这个应该是个典故。不过没查到。

日本个人投资者取代了国外利差交易者离开的市场
这个中文不太对。。

n all-too-sudden unwinding of carry-trade positions risked destabilising global markets, as everyone rushed for the exits and the yen spiked.
利差交易头寸突然平仓

Since then, however—not very much
不过从那时开始程度就减弱了

Curiously, though, the currency's recent slide has taken place without any help from carry traders, whose positions, if anything, are being unwound.
不过奇怪的是,日元最近一次下落并不是因为套系交易的影响,因为套系交易头寸如果有变化的话也只是解除头寸。。
解除头寸会使日元升值。套息交易要低日元。

在800亿到1600亿之间。
美元

As recently as last May these positions, on balance, were long yen, but that changed and in February net short positions reached a record $17.8 billion.
positons.头寸。
long.position多头 short position 空头。
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:55 | 显示全部楼层
多谢狐狸兄点评啊,这篇文章译得我死去活来的,我再根据你的点评琢磨琢磨,然后明天修改。:lol
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发表于 2010-4-29 03:15 | 显示全部楼层
Para 2
the currency's recent slide has taken place without any help from carry traders, whose positions, if anything, are being unwound.
套息交易(非但没有愈演愈烈,反而)在不断平仓,其并不是导致近来日元走软的原因.

Para 3
One clue comes from financing trends among foreign banks in Japan. Whereas loans last year barely grew for Japan's banking sector as a whole, yen financing by foreign banks shot up by ¥7.4 trillion ($64 billion);
在日外资银行的融资趋势是线索之一。去年,在日本本土银行发放的贷款并未显著增长的情况下,外资银行的放贷量飙升了7.4万亿日元。

Para 4
long yen 指做多(买入)日元
net short positions 空头净头寸

Para 5
Since then, however, short yen positions have fallen sharply, to just two-fifths of their peak levels. A great unwinding of the carry trade, in other words, has taken place, but with very little of the predicted turbulence.
然而自那时起,日元空头头寸急剧下降至峰值的仅2/5。也就是说,套息交易者开始大量平仓,但这却没有引起预期中的混乱。
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发表于 2010-4-29 03:35 | 显示全部楼层
在楼上两位仁兄的帮助下,总算这篇译文有点像人话了,虽然还没完全理解文章意思。
非常感谢,祝五一愉快~:lol
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发表于 2010-4-29 03:55 | 显示全部楼层
看了下,发现我对中文术语一窍不通。。。position我明白,头寸我就不明白,还有long short 的中文。是不是position和头寸是完全对等的啊?在我的印象中头寸是救急用的现金。。。
如果是的话是不是long,short position和多头空头也是完全对等的啊?
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