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[经济学人] u.s.bank failures almost certain to increase in next year

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发表于 2010-4-29 01:22 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
October 6, 2008|SAN FRANCISCO, California (AP)
From cnn.com
Here's a safe bet for uncertain times: A lot of banks won't survive the next year of upheaval despite the U.S. government's $700 billion rescue plan to restore order to the financial industry.
在这样一个充满不确定性的时代,我敢打包票:尽管联邦政府拿出7000亿美元的救援计划试图使金融业恢复秩序,但在明年的金融大动荡中,将仍会有大量的银行倒闭。

The biggest questions are how many will perish and how they will be put out of their misery, whether it's outright closures by regulators scrambling to preserve the dwindling deposit insurance fund or in fire sales made under government pressure.
最大的问题在于有多少银行会倒闭,他们是怎么渡过难关的,会不会出现政府为了保值不断缩水的存款保险基金让他们通通倒闭或者在政府的压力下痛苦地卖掉的情况。

Weakened by huge losses on risky home loans, the banking industry is now on the shakiest ground since the early 1990s, when more than 800 federally insured institutions failed in a three-year period. That was during the clean-up phase of a decade-long savings-and-loan meltdown that wound up costing U.S. taxpayers $170 billion to $205 billion, after adjusting for inflation.
自从在90年代初,在三年内,超过800家联邦保险机构倒闭,银行业的基础已经不稳固了,现在在高风险家庭贷款上的巨大损失,更使银行业的大厦摇摇欲坠了。在经历了大清理时期,长达十年的储蓄和贷款都化为乌有,在调整通货膨胀之后,美国纳税人1700亿到2050亿美元的钱就这样消失了。

The government's commitment to spend up to $700 billion buying bad debts from ailing banks is likely to save some institutions that would have otherwise died, but analysts doubt it will be enough to avert a major shakeout.
政府承诺拿出7000亿美元从那些奄奄一息的银行手上买下坏账,就像挽救一些机构,否则他们就会死掉,但有些分析家怀疑,拿出这么些钱来进行彻底改组是不是够?

"It will help, but it's not going to be the saving grace" because a lot of banks are holding construction loans and other types of deteriorating assets that the government won't take off their books, predicted Stanford Financial analyst Jaret Seiberg. He expects more than 100 banks nationwide to fail next year.
斯坦福大学金融分析师Jaret Seiberg预测说,“这是有帮助的,但是还不足以挽救残局”因为很多银行持有住房贷款,和其他正在成为坏账的资产,而政府并没有帮他们买单。他预料,明年将会有超过100家的银行倒闭。

The darkening clouds already have some depositors pondering a question that always seems to crop up in financial panics despite deposit insurance: Could it possibly make more sense to stash cash in a mattress than in a bank account?
由于前景越来越不明朗,一些储户认真考虑着一个尽管有储蓄保险但每次金融危机总是会出现的问题:把现金藏在床垫下会不会比放在银行账户上更有意义?

"It sounds like a joke," said business owner Mauricoa Quintero as he recently paused outside a Wachovia Bank branch in Miami. "But it sounds safer than the turmoil out there right now."
一位叫Mauricoa Quintero的老板,最近刚关闭Wachovia银行迈阿密分行,表示说:"这听起来就像一个笑话,但在这个时候安全总比混乱要好。”

Not as many banks are likely to fail as in the S&L crisis, largely because there are about 8,000 fewer today than there were in 1988.
跟中小金融联合会危机相比,这次应该似乎不会倒闭那么多的银行,很大程度上是因为现在约有8,000家,比1998年还要少。

But that doesn't necessarily mean the problems won't be as costly or as unnerving; banks are much larger than they were 20 years ago, thanks to laws passed in the 1990s.
但这并不是必然地意味着危机代价较小或者不会让人气馁;多亏了在90年代通过的法律,现在的银行要比20年前大很多。

"I don't see why things will be that much different this time," said Joseph Mason, an economist who worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in the 1990s and is now a finance professor at Louisiana State University. "We just had a big party where people and businesses overborrowed. We had a bubble and now we want to get back to normal. Is it going to be painless? No."
在90年代供职于联邦财政部,现在作为路易斯安那州立大学的金融教授、经济学家Joseph Mason表示,“我不认为这次的事件有多么的不同,我们只是一个大集团,在这里消费者和企业过度举债。于是产生了一个大泡沫,我们现在就是要回到正常的轨道。这个过程不需要经历痛苦?绝不是这样的。”

With more super-sized banks in business, fewer failures could still dump a big bill on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the government agency that insures bank and S&L deposits. The FDIC's potential liability is rising under a provision of the bailout that increases the deposit insurance limit to $250,000 per account, up from $100,000.
由于更多超大规模银行的存在,作为银行和中小金融联合会的担保人的联邦储蓄保险公司仍然很难为一些银行的破产买单。联邦储蓄保险公司的潜在责任是设立一个援助的规定,把每个账户的保险限额从100,000美元增加到250,000美元

Using statistics from the S&L crisis as a guide, Mason estimates total deposits in banks that fail during the current crisis at $1.1 trillion. After calculating gains from selling deposits and some of the assets of the failed banks, Mason estimates the clean-up this time will cost the FDIC $140 billion to $200 billion.

Mason利用次贷危机的数据,估计在这次危机中将会有11,000亿美元的银行存款蒸发了。通过计算卖掉存款和破产银行的资产的所得后,Mason估计在这次大清理中将会花掉联邦储蓄保险公司1400亿到200亿美元。

The FDIC's fund currently has about $45 billion, a five-year low. But the agency can make up for any shortfalls by borrowing from the U.S. Treasury and eventually repaying the money by raising the premiums that it charges the healthy banks and S&Ls.
联邦储蓄保险公司眼下的基金约450亿美元,为5年来的最低水平。但是该机构还是能通过从联邦财政部借钱来弥补这个差额,最终通过提高从正常运转的银行和储蓄贷款银行收取的保险金来偿还债务。

Through the first nine months of the year, 13 banks and S&Ls have been taken over by the FDIC, more than the previous five years combined.
在过去的九个月中,联邦储蓄保险公司已经接管了13家银行和储蓄贷款银行,超过了过去5年的总和。

The FDIC may be underestimating, or least not publicly acknowledging, the trouble ahead. As of June 30, the FDIC had 117 insured banks and S&Ls on its problem list. That represented about 1 percent of the nearly 8,500 institutions insured as of June 30. Entering 1991, about 10 percent of the industry -- 1,496 institutions -- was on the FDIC's endangered list.
联邦储蓄保险公司可能对困难有所低估,或者至少在非公开场合是承认麻烦就在前面。在今年6月30日,有117家投保的银行和储蓄贷款银行在联邦储蓄保险公司的问题清单上。这占了近8,500家参与投保的机构总数的1%。而在1991年,约占10%的公司--1,496个机构--是联邦储蓄保险公司的担保对象。

Although the FDIC doesn't name the institutions it classifies as problems, this year's June 30 list didn't include two huge headaches: Washington Mutual Bank and Wachovia. Combined, WaMu and Wachovia had more than $1 trillion in assets; the assets of the 117 institutions on the FDIC's watch list totaled $78 billion.
尽管FDIC没有把区分为有问题的机构单列出来,今年6月30的清单并没有包括两个令人头痛的大户:华盛顿互助银行和Wachovia。 Wamu和Wachovia 资产加起来超过10000亿美元;另外FDIC监视清单上的117家机构资产总额才780亿美元。

Late last month, WaMu became the largest bank failure in U.S. history, with $307 billion in assets, nearly five times more, on an inflation-adjusted basis, than the previous record collapse of Continental Illinois National Bank in 1984. The FDIC doesn't expect WaMu's demise to drain its fund because JP Morgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy the bank's deposits and most of the assets for $1.9 billion.
上个月下旬,WaMu以3,070亿的资产,成为美国历史上最大的银行破产案,按通货膨胀调整后,接近1984年大陆伊利诺伊国民银行 破产所创的记录的五倍多。FDIC并不希望WaMu寿终正寝,并耗尽其基金,因为摩根史坦利同意以19亿美元买下WaMu的存款账户和其他大多数资产。

Regulators dodged another potential bullet by helping to negotiate the sale of Wachovia's banking operations to Citigroup Inc. in a complex deal that could still end up costing the FDIC, depending on the severity of future loan losses. On Friday, a battle of banking giants erupted when Wachovia struck a new deal with Wells Fargo & Co. without government help, and Citigroup demanded that it be called off.
当局也避免了一个潜在的危险,他们以FDIC最终赔偿损失的条件,依靠未来严峻的贷款损失的复杂协议,帮助促成了花旗银行收购Wachovia银行的交易。在周五,银行巨头们爆发出一场恶战,在没有政府的帮助下,Wachovia 与wells Fargo &Co.签署了一份新协议,而花旗银行强烈要求这笔交易必须取消。

The banking outlook looks even gloomier through the prism of Bauer Financial Inc., which has been relying on data filed with the FDIC to assess the health of federally insured institutions for the past 25 years.
鲍尔金融公司利用FDIC提供的数据,对25年来联邦保险机构的经营状况进行评估,在他们分析中,银行业的前景看起来将更加黯淡。

Based on its analysis of the June 30 numbers, Bauer Financial concluded that 426 federally insured institutions are grappling with major problems. That's about 5 percent of all banks and S&Ls.
按照鲍尔金融公司对6月30日的数据的分析,他们得出结论:426家联邦被保险机构都遇到大麻烦。这约占所有银行和中小金融联合会的5%。

About 15 percent of the banks on Bauer's cautionary list have more than $1 billion in assets. Not surprisingly, the troubles are concentrated among banks that were the most active in markets where free-flowing mortgages contributed to the rapid run-up in home prices that set the stage for the jarring come down. By Bauer's reckoning, the largest numbers of troubled banks are in California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois and Minnesota.
在鲍尔的警告清单上,也有15%的公司资产超过10亿美元。这并不奇怪,麻烦总是集中在那些在市场中最活跃的银行。而现在市场上充斥着自由流动的抵押贷款,正是这些抬高了房价,为这次不和谐的落败做好了准备。按照鲍尔的观点,这些陷入困境的公司主要是集中在加利福尼亚,福罗里达州,乔治亚州,伊利诺斯州和明尼苏达州。

"It's important for people to remember that not all these banks are going to fail, just because they are on this list," said Karen Dorway, Bauer Financial's president. "Many of them will recover."
鲍尔金融公司董事长Karen Dorway表示:“这些银行仅仅是列在清单上,并不是都要倒闭,他们中的很大一部分都将会恢复过来的。记住这一点对大家来说是很重要的。”

James Barth, who was chief economist of the regulatory agency that oversaw the S&L industry in the 1980s, doubts things will get as bad as they did then.
80年代中小金融联合会监管机构的首席经济学家James Barth担心事态会想以前一样糟糕。

"It's scary right now, but it's not as scary as a lot of people are making it out to be," said Barth, now a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, a think tank
现在为智囊团--梅肯研究院资深研究员的Barth表示:“现在是挺可怕的,但并不是像很多人认为的那样吓人。”

Mani Behimehr, a home designer living in, California, isn't feeling reassured after what happened to WaMu and Wachovia. After he heard the news that WaMu had been seized and sold to JP Morgan, he rushed out to withdraw about $150,000 in savings and opened a new account at Wachovia only to learn about its sale to Citigroup two days later.
住在加利福尼亚的塔斯廷的房屋设计师Mani Behimehr 对于Wamu和Wachovia(倒闭)的事情感到很担心。当他听到WaMu已经倒闭了并卖给摩根的消息后,马上跑到银行取出150,000美元然后在Wachovia银行开了一个新的账户,没想到Wachovia银行在两天之后卖给了花旗集团。

"I thought this is the strongest economy in the world; nothing like that happens in this country," said Behimehr, 46, who is originally from Iran.
最初来自伊朗的46岁的Behimehr说:“我本来认为这是世界上最强的经济体;然而没有东西像在这个国家发生的那样。

The tumult is creating expansion opportunities for healthy banks. Industry heavyweights such as JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. have already rolled the dice on major acquisitions of financially battered institutions in hopes of becoming more powerful than ever.
这次动荡也给了那些运行良好的银行一个扩张的机会。那些重量级的银行,像JP摩根,花旗银行和美洲银行公司,已经准备碰运气大举收购遭到重创的金融业,以便把自己变得更强.

Smaller players such as Clifton Savings Bank in New Jersey are bragging about their relatively clean balance sheets to lure depositors away from rivals that are wrestling with huge loan losses. The bank, with about $900 million in total assets, says just one of its 2,300 home loans is in foreclosure.
像新泽西州的克里夫顿储蓄银行这样的小银行则是吹嘘其相对干净的资产负债表,来吸引储户摆脱那些被大量不良贷款压得喘不过气的竞争对手。拥有9亿美元总资产的克里夫顿储蓄银行表示,他们仅有2,300个房贷收不回来。

"There is going to be a flight to quality," predicted John Celentano Jr., Clifton Savings' chief executive. "People are going to start putting their money in places that were being run the way things are supposed to be run: the old-fashioned way."
克里夫顿储蓄银行的首席执行官John Celentano Jr.预测,未来将会在质量上有一次飞越,人们将会开始把钱放在那些按照传统的方式经营金融资产的地方
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:07 | 显示全部楼层
敢问楼主,这篇是出自哪里?能不能把出处标示出来,方便大家点评讨论
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发表于 2010-4-29 02:52 | 显示全部楼层
CNN的??
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发表于 2010-4-29 03:37 | 显示全部楼层
抱歉啊,我刚刚才知道不是经济学人杂志的不能放在财经版,喵喵~
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