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[经济学人] [2011.8.27] Making the desert bloom 墨西哥经济 让沙漠绽放

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发表于 2011-9-6 14:31 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Mexico’s economy
墨西哥经济


Making the desert bloom
让沙漠绽放


The Mexican economy has recovered somewhat from a scorching recession imported from America, but is still hobbled by domestic monopolies and cartels
虽然墨西哥受美国影响,出现了严重的经济危机,不过,它的经济已略有回升,但仍受到国内垄断企业和卡特尔(或企业联合)的掣肘。




HOT and high in the Sierra Madre, the city of Saltillo is a long way from Wall Street. Stuffed goats keep an eye on customers in the high-street vaquera, or cowboy outfitter, where workers from the local car factories blow their pesos on snakeskin boots and $100 Stetsons. Pinstriped suits and silk ties are outnumbered by checked shirts and silver belt-buckles; pickups are prized over Porsches.

在又高又热的西马德雷山脉(Sierra Madre)上,有一座离华尔街很遥远的萨尔蒂约(Saltillo)城。塞满了填料的山羊在主街道的牛仔服店里留神地看着顾客。当地汽车工厂的工人们在那儿花钱买蛇皮靴子(译者注:peso,比索为墨西哥等国货币单位,简写为$,有时在$前或后附以国名简写)和100比索的斯泰森毡帽(译者注:斯泰森毡帽为美国西部牛仔戴的一种阔边高顶毡帽,为约翰•斯泰森(John Stetson)设计)。在那儿,棋盘花纹衬衫和银色皮带扣数量超过了细条纹西装和真丝领带;轻便型货车比保时捷更有价值。

The financial crisis of 2008 began on the trading floors of Manhattan, but the biggest tremors were felt in the desert south of the Rio Grande. Mexico suffered the steepest recession of any country in the Americas, bar a couple of Caribbean tiddlers. Its economy shrank by 6.1% in 2009 (see chart 1). Between the third quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009, 700,000 jobs were lost, 260,000 of them in manufacturing. The slump was deepest in the prosperous north: worst hit was the border state of Coahuila. Saltillo, its capital, had grown rich exporting to America. The state’s output fell by 12.3% in 2009 as orders dried up.

2008年金融危机在曼哈顿的交易大厅内开始,但是在墨西哥沙漠南部的里奥格兰德(Rio Grande)感觉到了最大的震颤。除了两三个加勒比海的小国外,墨西哥是美洲遭受经济危机最严重的国家。2009年,墨西哥经济萎缩达到6.1%(见图表1)。2008年第三季度和2009年第二季度之间,墨西哥总共失去了70万就业机会,其中制造业26万。在墨西哥繁华的北部,经济衰落是最严重的:边境上科阿韦拉(Coahuila)州受到最大的重创。向美国出口丰富物资的科阿韦拉(Coahuila)州首府萨尔蒂约(Saltillo)市一直在增长。2009年,由于订单逐渐减少,这个州的出口下降了12.3%。



The recession turned a reasonable decade for Mexico’s economy into a dreary one. In the ten years to 2010, income per person grew by 0.6% a year, one of the lowest rates in the world. In the early 2000s Mexico boasted Latin America’s biggest economy, measured at market exchange rates, but it was soon overtaken by Brazil, whose GDP is now twice as big and still pulling away, boosted by the soaring real. Soon Brazil will take the lead in oil production, which Mexico has allowed to dwindle. As Brazilians construct stadiums for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, Mexicans, who last year celebrated the bicentenary of their independence from Spain, are building monuments to their past (and finishing them late).

过去十年,墨西哥经济还算差强人意,但经济危机一来,接下来的十年就将暗无天日。2000年到2010年的十年间,每年人均收入增长0.6%,这是世界上增长率最低的国家之一。21世纪初的前几年,以市场汇率衡量,墨西哥自吹自擂为拉丁美洲最大的经济体。但是,好景不长,巴西赶超了墨西哥。主要是由于飙升的地产所推动,巴西的国内生产总值现在是墨西哥的两倍,而且还在拉大距离。不久,巴西将在石油产品方面占主导地位,而墨西哥则逐渐衰退。当巴西人为2014年世界杯和2016年奥运会兴建体育场时,墨西哥人正在为他们的过去修建纪念馆(并将于新近完工)。此外,墨西哥人去年举行了他们从西班牙独立200周年的纪念活动。

Mexico’s muscles
墨西哥的实力


Yet Mexico’s economy is packed with potential. Thanks to the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and a string of bilateral deals, it trades more than Argentina and Brazil combined, and more per person than China. Last year it did $400 billion of business with the United States, more than any country bar Canada and China. The investment rate, at more than a fifth of GDP, is well ahead of Brazil’s. Income per person slipped below Brazil’s in 2009, but only because of the real’s surge and the peso’s weakness. After accounting for purchasing power, Mexicans are still better off than Brazilians.

然而,墨西哥的经济充满潜力。由于北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)和一系列的双边交易,墨西哥的贸易量是阿根廷和巴西的贸易加起来的量还要多,而且人均贸易量超过中国。 去年,墨西哥和美国交易达到了4000亿美元,除了加拿大和中国,它比任何国家做成的业务都要大。墨西哥的投资率占国内生产总值的五分之一以上,远远超过巴西。2009年,墨西哥人均收入下降到巴西的人均收入以下,但只是因为房地产的飙升和比索的疲软。在对购买力作出解释之后,墨西哥人的经济仍然比巴西人要强的多。

Though expatriates whinge about bureaucracy, the World Bank ranks Mexico the easiest place in Latin America to do business and the 35th-easiest in the world, ahead of Italy and Spain. In Brazil (placed 127th) companies spend 2,600 hours a year filing taxes, six times more than in Mexico. Registering a business takes nine days in Mexico and 26 in Argentina. The working hours of supposedly siesta-loving Mexicans are among the longest in the world. And although Mexico’s schools are the worst in (mainly rich) OECD countries, they are the least bad in Latin America apart from Chile’s.

虽然外籍人士没完没了的抱怨其官僚作风,但是世界银行给墨西哥评定为拉丁美洲最容易做生意的地方,以及世界上第35位最易做生意的地方,领先意大利和西班牙。在巴西(列127位),公司需要花费2600小时申报一年的税收,是墨西哥公司所花费的六倍还要多。在墨西哥注册一个公司需要9天的时间,阿根廷则需要26天。据说,爱好午睡的墨西哥人的工作时间是世界上最长的。而且,虽然墨西哥的学校在(主要富裕的)经济合作与发展组织国家内是最差的,但除了智利以外,他们的学校在拉丁美洲还算不错的。

These strengths have helped Mexico to rebound smartly from its calamitous slump. Last year the economy grew by 5.4%, recovering much of the ground lost in 2009. Exports to the United States, having fallen by a fifth, have reached a record high. In the desert there are signs of life: Saltillo’s high street, where four out of ten shops closed during the recession, is busy again. CIFUNSA, a foundry that turns out some 400,000 tonnes of cast iron a year for customers such as Ford and Volkswagen, shed 40% of its staff in 2009, but has rehired most of them and is producing more than it did before the slump.

这些优势已经帮助了墨西哥从其灾难性的衰落中快速而突然地反弹回来。去年,墨西哥经济增长5.4%,恢复了2009年基本损失的大部分。出口到美国的物资曾经下降了五分之一,如今却再创历史新高。但在这片沙漠中,还是有着生命的迹象:在萨尔蒂约的主街上,经济危机期间,十分之四的店铺关了门,现在又忙碌如常了。一家铸造厂---墨西哥铸铁工业集团(CIFUNSA)原先每年为客户制造(生产)出大约40万吨铸铁,比如福特和大众。该公司在2009年解雇了40%的员工,但现在已经重新雇佣了这些被解雇员工中的大部分,而且比经济衰落前生产更多的产品。

However, the jobs market has yet to return to its pre-recession state. Nationally, the official unemployment rate is 5.4%, having peaked at 6.4% in 2009. Javier Lozano, Mexico’s labour secretary, believes that the pre-recession mark of 4.1% will not be matched within the term of this government or the next (ie, before 2018). What’s more, the new jobs are not as good as those that were lost. Average pay last year was 5% lower than in 2008. Because of this, and rising food prices, more Mexicans have slipped into poverty: last year 46.2% of them were below the official poverty line (earning less than 2,114 pesos, or $167, per month), up from 44.5% in 2008.

然而,就业市场还未恢复到衰退前的状态。从全国来讲,官方统计的失业率是5.4%,而2009年曾达到峰值6.4%。墨西哥劳工部长哈维尔•洛萨诺(Javier Lozano)认为,经济衰退前失业率4.1%的标准不可能在这届政府或下届任期内(即,2018年前)达到。更重要的是,新的就业机会并不如那些失去的工作那么好。去年平均工资比2008年的要低5%。由于这个原因以及食品价格上涨,更多的墨西哥人生活水准下降到贫困线以下:从2008年的44.5%上升到去年的46.2%的人生活水平低于官方贫困线(月收入低于2114比索或167美元)。

Just as recession came from the gringos, recovery depends partly on them. Many analysts who once predicted economic growth of 5% this year cut their forecasts to under 4% after a downward revision of American GDP in July. Exports account for nearly a third of Mexico’s trillion-dollar GDP, and most go to the United States. Remittances provide $190 per person per year (down from $240 in 2007). Now America faces several years of lacklustre growth, which poses a dilemma for Mexico.

正如经济衰退来自外国佬,经济的恢复在一定程度上也依赖他们。许多分析人士曾经预测今年经济增长为5%。但是,七月份,在美国将国内生产总值修改的更小后,他们将墨西哥经济增长的预测降低到4%以下。出口将近占墨西哥万亿美元的国内生产总值的三分之一,而且大部分出口到美国。人均年汇款从2007年的240美元下降到现在的$190美元。现在美国面临几年毫无起色的增长,这给墨西哥造成进退两难的处境。

Some look at the recent explosive growth of Brazil and wonder if it is time to follow its example and look to new markets. In 2009 only 3% of Mexico’s exports went to Brazil, Russia, India or China, whereas Brazil sent 16% of its exports to its fellow BRICs. Industrialised countries receive less than half of Brazil’s exports but 90% of Mexico’s. The Inter-American Development Bank, the biggest lender in the region, describes a “two speed” Latin America, in which economies, such as Mexico, which do most of their trade with developed countries, lag behind those, such as Brazil, that have forged links with emerging markets.

有些人看着巴西最近爆炸式的增长,想知道是否是到了以其为榜样并寻找新市场的时候了。2009年,墨西哥只有3%的物资出口到巴西,俄罗斯,印度或中国,而巴西则向其伙伴金砖国家出口了16%的物资。工业化国家接收不到巴西一半的出口物资,但却接收墨西哥出口物资的90%。该地区最大的债主---美洲开发银行描述一个“两种速度”的拉丁美洲。在这个区域内,和发达国家做生意的经济体,比如墨西哥,落后于那些和新兴市场建立联系的经济体,比如巴西。

South or north?
南方还是北方?


Mexico has already diversified its exports. America’s share of them has fallen from 89% in 2000 to perhaps 78% this year and will fall further, according to Miguel Messmacher, head of economic planning at Mexico’s finance ministry. Sales to Latin America and Asia are growing twice as fast as those to America. The automotive industry, Mexico’s biggest exporter, is ahead of the trend: though exports to America continue to rise, they now make up only 65% of the total. Eduardo Solís, head of the industry’s national association, says he would like to get the figure down to 50% by focusing on Latin America and Europe.

墨西哥已经使其出口多元化了。根据墨西哥财政部经济规划主管米格尔•梅斯马彻尔(Miguel Messmacher)所说,他们出口到美国的份额已经从2000年的89%下降到今年大约为78%,而且将进一步下降。拉丁美洲和亚洲的销售是美国销售增长的两倍之快。墨西哥最大的出口商---汽车行业就是这个趋势的领航员:虽然到美国的出口继续增长,但它们只占总出口的65%。该行业的国家协会领导人爱德华•索利斯(Eduardo Solís)说,他希望通过把注意力集中在拉丁美洲和欧洲,那么这个数字会下降到50%。

Others say Mexico’s economic future will always be to the north. “We can’t just become a commodity exporter and start sending soy beans to China,” says Jorge Castañeda, a former foreign secretary. History, geography and natural resources have wedded Mexico to its wealthy neighbour: “It’s not something we chose,” he says. If the American economy is growing slowly, Mexico will just have to get a bigger chunk of it.

其他人说,只有着眼于北方,墨西哥的经济才会有未来。“我们不能只是成为商品输出国,并开始向中国输出大豆,” 前外长乔治•卡斯塔涅达(Jorge Castañeda)说道。历史,地理和自然资源已经使得墨西哥和它富有的邻居融合在了一起:“这并不是我们所选择的,”他说。假如美国的经济增长缓慢的话,墨西哥必将受到很大影响。

That task has been made harder by China. Since China joined the World Trade Organisation in 2001 its share of American imports has grown fast and is now the biggest. The shares of Canada and especially Japan have fallen. Mexico’s share, which almost doubled in the seven years after NAFTA came into effect, slipped after 2001. But it is edging up again (see chart 2).

中国使这项工作更为艰巨。自从2001年中国加入世界贸易组织以来,它出口到美国的份额就一直保持增长而且现在占了最大的份额。加拿大的份额,特别是日本的份额已经下降。而在北美自由贸易协定生效后的7年内,墨西哥的份额几乎倍了一倍,但是2001年后再次下滑。然而,它的份额正在再次逐渐上升(见图表2)。



China’s low wages, which lured factories away from Mexico, are rising rapidly. In 2003 Mexican pay was three times Chinese rates but now it is only 20% higher, Mr Messmacher says. The rising yuan and the cheap peso accentuate this trend.

中国工人的低工资将工厂从墨西哥吸引走了,但现在工人工资不断上涨。梅斯马彻尔(Messmacher)先生说,2003年,墨西哥人的工资是中国人的三倍,但现在却只高20%。人民币升值和比索贬值使得这一趋势更加严重。

Proximity to America, Mexico’s trump card, has been made more valuable by the high oil price. The resolution in July of a long dispute has allowed Mexican lorries to make deliveries in America, which the Mexican government reckons will reduce firms’ shipping costs by 15%. The rise of China may also help Mexico too, by forcing American companies to compete more keenly. Detroit carmakers cannot export cars to South Korea, but a Mexican factory using American parts can, notes Luis de la Calle, a former trade minister.

邻近美国是墨西哥的王牌,这使得高油价更有价值。今年7月,长期争端的解决已经允许墨西哥货车进入美国送货。墨西哥政府估计这将削减公司运输成本的15%。中国的崛起也可能通过迫使美国公司竞争更为激烈而帮助墨西哥。前贸易部长路易斯•德拉卡莱(Luis de la Calle)指出,底特律汽车制造商不能向韩国出口汽车,但使用美国零部件的墨西哥工厂却可以。

Luring foreign investors has been made trickier by a spike in violence. Since 2007, a crackdown on organised crime has caused Mexico’s drug-trafficking “cartels”, as they are known (though they are in fact rather competitive), to splinter and fight. Last year the murder rate was 17 per 100,000 people, a little lower than Brazil’s, but more than two-thirds up on 2007. Ernesto Cordero, the finance minister, has estimated that the violence knocks about a percentage point off Mexico’s annual growth rate.

由于暴力事件的急剧飙升,吸引外国投资者已经变得更加困难。由于墨西哥贩毒集团以分裂和斗争为人们所熟知,但自2007年以来,对有组织犯罪进行镇压已经导致了他们贩毒集团的“卡特尔”(或“企业联合”)。去年,墨西哥谋杀率每十万17人次,比巴西略低一点,但超过2007年的三分之二。财政部长埃内斯托•科尔德罗(Ernesto Cordero)已经估计,暴力事件削减墨西哥年增长率约一个百分点。

The fighting is highly concentrated: last year 70% of mafia-related killings took place in 3% of the country’s municipalities. In Yucatán state, where tourists scramble around Mayan ruins, the murder rate is no higher than in Belgium. Last July was the busiest ever for Mexico’s foreign-tourist trade, but there are signs that the drip of bloody stories is starting to hurt bookings. In the first five months of this year, arrivals were 3.6% lower than last. Acapulco, which caters mainly to domestic tourists, has virtually emptied thanks to frequent shootings in the heart of the hotel zone.

这类争斗是很集中的:去年,黑手党有关的杀人案的70%发生在该国3%的自治市内。在尤卡坦州(Yucatán),游客围绕玛雅遗址攀登的地方,谋杀率并不比比利时高。去年七月是墨西哥有史以来国外游客生意最繁忙的季节,但是有些迹象表明,血腥故事的伤感开始对机票等预定造成损失。今年开始的五个月,旅游到达人数比去年下降了3.6%。主要为了迎合国内游客的阿卡普尔科(Acapulco)实际上已经由于酒店区中心的频繁枪击事件而变得空空荡荡了。

Many of the roughest areas are in the north, where foreign investment is concentrated. In Ciudad Juárez, a centre of maquila factories that assemble products for export, the murder rate has climbed to one of the highest in the world, as the Sinaloa and Juárez cartels battle for control of the border crossing, little restrained (and often aided) by the local police. In Tamaulipas, a border state where violence surged last year, the unemployment rate has risen to 7.5%, the highest in the country. The head of a Mexican multinational with operations there found recently that his local manager had been siphoning company money to the cartels. Many rich businessmen have moved their families to America; the governor of one border state is rumoured to have done the same (his office denies it).

墨西哥北部许多条件最恶劣的地区是外商投资集中的地方。在华雷斯城(Ciudad Juárez),马基拉朵拉工厂(外国人在墨西哥开办的装配厂)是装备产品出口的中心,谋杀率已经攀升到世界上最高的比率之一,因为锡那罗亚(Sinaloa)和华雷斯(Juárez)卡特尔为了过境控制而进行争斗,当地警察很少遏制(而且经常帮助)他们。作为边境州的塔毛利帕斯(Tamaulipas)州,去年的暴力激增,失业率已上升至全国最高的7.5%。一家在那儿有业务的墨西哥跨国公司的领导发现,最近,他的当地经理已经将公司的钱挪动给了卡特尔。许多富商将他们的家人移民去了美国;传言一个边境州的州长做了同样的事情(但是,他的办公室否认了这点)。

Investors have largely held their nerve. Foreign direct investment, which reached $30 billion in 2007 but fell to half that in 2009, is expected to recover to $20 billion this year. Businessmen play down the violence: Mr Solís admits that some car transporters have been robbed on highways, but says that this year has been better than last. This month Honda became the latest carmaker to announce plans to expand in Mexico, in spite of the insecurity.

投资者们大部分都保持冷静。2007年,外商直接投资达到300亿美元,但在2009年下跌到只有一半的资金,今年预期恢复到200亿美元。商人故意贬低暴力事件:索利斯(Solís)先生承认,有些汽车运输车辆在高速路上被劫,但是他说,今年情况比去年有所好转。尽管有不安全因素,这个月本田还是成了最新流行的汽车制造商宣布在墨西哥发展的计划。

Still, insecurity adds costs and delays. The road from Saltillo to Monterrey, the nearest big airport, has become dicey, so more people rely on Saltillo’s own tiny airport, where a single airline offers flights to Mexico City for upwards of $400. Conferences, concerts and sporting fixtures have been cancelled in Monterrey. In Coahuila on August 20th a football match was abandoned after shots were fired outside the stadium. Some foreign companies are even nervous about sending executives to Mexico City, although it has a lower murder rate than many American cities.

还有,不安全因素还会增加费用和延期。从萨尔蒂约(Saltillo)城到邻近最大的蒙特雷机场的公路变得不确定而且危险四起,所以,更多的人依赖萨尔蒂约(Saltillo)城自己的小机场。一家单线航空公司从这个小机场提供到墨西哥城的航班需要400美元以上。在蒙特雷(Monterrey)市的会议,音乐会和体育活动均被取消。8月20日,在科阿韦拉(Coahuila)州的一场足球比赛因体育场外发生枪击后而被放弃。虽然墨西哥城有着比许多美国城市更低的谋杀率,但是许多外国公司甚至因派遣高管到墨西哥城而提心吊胆。

From Uncle Sam to Uncle Slim
从“山姆大叔”到“斯利姆大叔”


Despite Mexico’s difficulties, one of its citizens is the richest person in the world. Carlos Slim, the son of a Lebanese immigrant, has made a fortune estimated by Forbes at $74 billion. The magazine reckons that last year his net worth rose by $20.5 billion.

尽管墨西哥困难重重,其居民之一是世界上最富有的人。黎巴嫩移民儿子的卡洛斯•斯利姆已经发了大财。据“福布斯”估计,他拥有740亿美元。该杂志认为,去年他的净值上升了205亿美元。

Nearly two-thirds of Mr Slim’s wealth is thought to lie in América Móvil, the biggest or second-biggest mobile-phone operator everywhere in Latin America except Chile (where it is third). In Mexico Mr Slim’s grip is particularly strong, with 70% of the cellular market and 80% of landlines. In half the country’s 400 local areas, only his company has the infrastructure to put through calls to landlines. Not surprisingly, after accounting for purchasing power home landlines in Mexico cost 45% more than the OECD average and business lines 63% more (see chart 3). Mobiles are better value, particularly for those who do not make many calls. But basic broadband access costs nearly ten times more (per megabit per second of advertised speed) than in the rest of the OECD.

大概斯利姆先生财富的三分之二被认为是在美洲電信公司。这家公司在除了智利(那儿公司位于第三位)外的拉丁美洲是数一数二的移动电话经营商。在墨西哥,斯利姆先生的控制力强大无比,拥有手机市场的70%和固定电话的80%。在半个国家的400个地区,只有他的公司有电信基础结构可以给固定电话机打通电话。毫不奇怪的是,按照在购买力中所占比例算,墨西哥家用固定电话的成本比经合组织国家的平均高45%,而商用固定电话高63%(见图表3)。特别是对那些不常打电话的人来说,手机就更实惠了。但是,基本的宽带接入成本几乎比经合组织其余国家的十倍之多(公告速度的每秒每兆位)。

,墨西哥的家庭线路比OECD平均价格贵45%,商用线路贵63%(见表3)。这样手机就来得实惠得多,特别是对于那些不怎么打电话的人来说。



Telecoms is not the only monopolised sector. A study by the OECD and Mexico’s Federal Competition Commission (CFC) found that 31% of Mexican household spending went on products supplied in monopolistic or highly oligopolistic markets. The poorest tenth suffered most, 38% of their expenditure going on such things.

电信并不是唯一的垄断部门。经合组织和墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)的一项研究发现,墨西哥家庭支出中的31%流向了垄断或寡头垄断的市场所提供的产品。最贫穷的十分之一的人遭罪最严重,他们开支的38%花费在这类东西上。

The cost of these captive markets is ruinous. Until recently, for example, firms selling generic medicines were required by law to operate a plant in Mexico. This, along with a system that allows doctors to prescribe medicines by brand rather than by generic compound, means that the market is dominated by expensive brands. Generics account for less than 17% of the drugs market, against 66.5% in America. Medicine is a third pricier than in Britain.

这些受垄断市场的成本具有毁灭性质。例如,直到最近,想卖非品牌药物的公司依照法律,必须在墨西哥运营一家工厂。这和允许医生开品牌药而非品牌药的系统一起意味着,市场被昂贵的品牌药物占据着。非品牌药物占了药品市场不到17%,而美国非品牌药物则占了66.5%。墨西哥药品价格比英国贵三分之一。


Time for some self-service
自我服务时间

The labyrinth of torpitude
错综复杂的腐化堕落

Transport is expensive too. The handful of budget airlines that arrived in the past decade have struggled to get take-off and landing slots at Mexico City’s airport, which are dished out by a committee dominated by incumbents. The CFC found that flights to and from Mexico City were between 40% and 80% dearer than those to less strangled airports. Intercity bus routes are dominated by four firms that have divided up the country. Fares are 10% higher than they ought to be, the CFC estimates.

运输费用也很昂贵。少量的几家价格低廉的航空公司在过去十年里为在墨西哥城机场起飞和着陆配位历尽千辛万苦,却遭到现任政府主导的一个委员会批评。墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)发现,往返墨西哥城的航班比那些去较少受到压制的机场的航班票价要贵40%到80%。城际巴士路线主要由已经瓜分了该国交通运输的四家公司主导。墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)估计,这些公司的票价比应该的价格要高出10%。

Banking is similarly uncompetitive. Two banks control almost half the market for deposit accounts and two-thirds of the credit- and debit-card markets. The lack of choice means that 95% of account-holders have never switched banks. Top of the list of Saltillo businesses’ complaints is the scarcity and cost of credit.

银行业同样缺乏竞争力。两家银行几乎控制存款账户的一半市场以及信用卡和借记卡三分之二的市场。缺乏选择意味着,95%的帐户持有人从来没有换过银行。萨尔蒂约商业的头条投诉就是稀缺性和信贷成本。

Some of these pinch points are being addressed. The collapse last year of Mexicana, North America’s oldest airline, has presented an opportunity to auction landing slots to nimbler competitors. Drugs should get cheaper thanks to an auction system devised by the CFC for Mexico’s social-security institute. In April a new competition law introduced penalties of up to ten years in jail for collusion, and empowered the CFC to make surprise inspections. The same month it fined Mr Slim’s mobile-phone operator a record $1 billion for abusing its market dominance.

这些难点中的一部分正在准备处理。去年,北美历史最悠久的航空公司---墨西哥航空公司的倒台给敏锐的竞争者们提供了一次拍卖着陆配位的机会。由于墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)为墨西哥社会保障机构设计(或策划)的一个拍卖系统,药品应该便宜点。4月,新的竞争法为勾结罪而推出了长达10年的徒刑,而且给了墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)权力进行突击检查。同一个月,墨西哥联邦竞争委员会(CFC)因滥用市场垄断地位而罚了斯利姆先生的移动电话营业商10亿美元的最高罚款记录。

Banking has been opened to entrants such as Walmart, which has already shaken up Mexican retailing. Commercial credit is expanding: it stands at 19% of GDP, nearly double the ratio in 2003. Lending is still less than half of what it was before the banking crisis of 1994, suggesting plenty of room for growth—certainly more than in Brazil, where credit already equals about half of GDP.

银行业已经向新成员如沃尔玛开放。沃尔玛已经动摇了墨西哥零售业的基础。商业信贷正在扩张:它达到了国内生产总值的19%,比2003年增加近一倍的比例。贷款仍然不到1994年银行危机前的一半业务,暗示着很大的空间可以增长---肯定比信贷已经差不多是国内生产总值一半的巴西的增长空间要大。

Forcing competition on cosy industries is still not easy. When the government decided in 2009 to shut down Luz y Fuerza, a state-run electricity company that was costing the taxpayer $3 billion a year, it required 1,000 police in riot gear to occupy the firm’s offices. Since Luz y Fuerza shut, the wait for new connections in Mexico City has fallen from ten months to four. But its ex-employees still bring parts of the capital to a halt with protests. Labour-reform efforts, to ease hiring and firing and allow six-month trial contracts, have met opposition in congress. Even with the new competition law, few people fancy the authorities’ chances against Mr Slim’s lawyers.

迫使相互默契的工业内竞争仍然很不容易。2009年,当政府决定关闭每年花费纳税人30亿美元的国营光照和电力公司(Luz y Fuerza)时,政府动用了1000名身着防暴衣的警察占领了该公司的办公室。自光照和电力公司(Luz y Fuerza)关闭以来,墨西哥城等待新电力连接的时间从十个月减少到了四个月。但是,其前雇员和抗议者一起还是导致了首都部分地区瘫痪。为缓解雇佣和解雇并允许6个月试用合同的劳工改革工作已经在议会遭到了反对。即使用新的竞争法,很少人相信当局有机会反对斯利姆先生的律师。

The answer is to open the economy and let foreign competition force Mexican firms to adapt, believes Mr de la Calle. “If you have free trade, you don’t need structural reforms because the companies have to compete,” he says. He cites the pork industry, which used to be blighted with hog cholera. Farmers resisted pressure to eradicate it, preferring to sell low volumes at high prices. When tariffs were dropped, cheap pork from America forced Mexican farmers to clean up their act. Cholera was eliminated, output rose and prices fell.

德拉卡莱先生(de la Calle)认为,答案就是开放经济并让国外的竞争迫使墨西哥公司适应。他说,“如果你有自由贸易,你就不需要结构改革,因为公司不得不竞争。” 他列举了曾因猪霍乱而萎靡不振的养猪业。农民们顶住压力来消灭猪霍乱,宁愿以高价出售少量猪肉。当关税下跌时,来自美国的廉价猪肉迫使墨西哥农民洗心革面,改正自己的行为。霍乱被消灭了,产量上升,价格下跌。

Other industries are ripe for similar treatment. Oil is a prime candidate. Pemex, a state monopoly, handles everything from exploration to petrol pumps. Its profits contribute a third of government revenue, allowing Mexico to maintain a generous and feebly enforced tax regime. But decades of underinvestment have hurt production, which fell from 3.4m barrels a day in 2004 to 2.6m. Brazil, which has allowed foreign investment in its oilfields, is producing around 2m barrels a day and expects to be pumping 6m by 2020.

其他行业接受类似待遇的时机已经成熟。石油行业就是重要的候选者。国家垄断的墨西哥石油公司(Pemex)处理从勘探到汽油泵的所有事情。其利润提供了政府财政收入的三分之一,这允许墨西哥保持了一个慷慨和毫无生气的强制性的税收制度。但是,墨西哥石油公司(Pemex)几十年的投资不足已经伤害了生产,已从2004年每天的340万桶下降到了现在的260万桶。而巴西已经允许外商投资其油田,现在每天生产200万桶,预计到2020年每天能够抽出600万桶。

Pemex’s output has stabilised in the past year, and this month it awarded its first performance-based contracts, a precursor to getting oil majors to explore the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. But efforts to make the company more efficient have been vetoed by the oil workers’ union. Refineries are poorly run; petrol stations forbid self-service.

墨西哥国家石油公司(Pemex)的产量在过去的一年里已经稳定下来了,而这个月它与基于工作表现最好的服务公司签订了合同,这是让大石油公司勘探墨西哥湾深水域的一个先例。但是使公司更有效的努力已经被石油工人的工会否决了。炼油厂经营不善;加油站禁止自我服务。

The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, a think-tank, estimates that the GDP growth rate could be raised by 2.5 percentage points if the oil industry were opened up and labour and competition laws reformed. Reeling from an American-made recession, however, Mexico is hardly in the mood for a more open economy. With a presidential election next year, it would be easier to keep puttering along in the shadow of Brazil, an economy which in some ways Mexico outclasses. Mexico’s rebound from slump and its resilience to lawlessness show its underlying strength. If it could only bust the monopolistic dams that have parched its economy, its desert might one day start to bloom.

作为智囊团的墨西哥竞争研究所估计,假如石油工业对外开放以及劳工和竞争法律进行改革的话,国内生产总值增长率可提高2.5个百分点。美国导致的经济危机使得墨西哥人极为震惊,但是,墨西哥人几乎不想要一个更加开放的经济体。随着明年的总统选举,墨西哥将更容易在巴西的阴影下保持慢条斯理的干活速度。在某种程度上,墨西哥远远超过巴西经济体。假如墨西哥只要能打破已使其经济干涸的垄断大坝,也许有那么一天,它的沙漠就会开始绽放。

Time can both ruin everything and build everything-It depends on you
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发表于 2011-9-14 00:12 | 显示全部楼层
your translation is really excellent~!
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its desert might one day start to bloom.
铂        http://www.preciousplatinum.com.cn
铂金和钯金的区别        http://s.dianping.com/to
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  哇哦,是中英结合的文章啊,来顶顶楼主,继续加油~
白金是什么http://www.imeee.cn/life/gouwu/050G591W12012.html
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楼主辛苦了,谢谢分享哈
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