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[经济学人] [2011.10.15] Yulia Tymoshenko’s trials 尤莉亚·季莫申科的审判

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发表于 2011-10-20 16:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Ukraine, Russia and the Eurasian Union
乌克兰、俄罗斯和欧亚同盟

Yulia Tymoshenko’s trials
尤莉亚•季莫申科的审判

The conviction of the opposition leader has chilled Ukraine’s relations with the West. Might it create an opening for Russia?
乌克兰反对派领袖被判刑,这使得该国同欧洲的关系僵化。这是否会给乌克兰同俄罗斯的关系打开一扇新的门?


SEVEN years ago Yulia Tymoshenko, a populist politician dressed in orange, climbed onto a stage in a snow-covered Kiev and galvanised 150,000 protesters against the rigged victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the 2004 presidential election. She sustained the energy of the crowd for days and ushered Viktor Yushchenko to victory, pledging retribution for those who stood in his way. “Glory to Ukraine”, she hailed; the crowd shouted “Yulia”.

七年前,民粹主义政治家尤莉亚•季莫申科身穿橘色衣服,走上白雪皑皑的基辅的一个平台,鼓动15万名群众起来反对2004年靠舞弊当选的维克多•亚努科维奇。人们在她的鼓舞下群情激昂了数天,使尤先科赢得了总统大选,并发誓,“阻碍我的人会付出代价”。季莫申科高呼“光荣归于乌克兰!”,群众则高喊她的名字来呼应。

Close to the orange revolution’s seventh anniversary, she made headlines again. This time the former prime minister, wearing grey, sat in court to hear a nervous judge reading out a sentence of seven years’ jail, a three-year ban on public office and a fine of $190m as purported compensation for damage allegedly caused when she struck a gas deal with Russia in 2009. The term was symbolic: a year in jail for every one that has passed since the orange revolution.1020

将近橙色革命七周年纪念日,季莫申科再次登上了头条。这一次,这位前总理身着灰色,坐在法庭上听着一位法官紧张地判决了七年的监禁,三年禁止出任公职,并处以一亿九千万美元的罚款,这项罚款主要用于补偿她于2009年同俄罗斯签订的天然气订单,据说这份订单造成了损失。这个处罚是具有标志性的,橙色革命之后,每个参与者都被判处了一年的有期徒刑。

Ever since Ms Tymoshenko was detained in jail on August 5th, the outcome has been predictable. It would have been out of character for Mr Yanukovych, now Ukraine’s thuggishly vindictive president, to let his bitter rival, who has often humiliated and poked him with his own criminal past, to go free. It would be against Ms Tymoshenko’s nature not to turn her show trial into political theatre. Even before the judge had finished reading the sentence, she turned to the cameras: “This is an authoritarian regime…I will not stop my struggle”. As she was led out of court she called on her supporters to overthrow the regime, again chanting “glory to Ukraine”.

自从季莫申科于8月5日被拘留以后,其后果可想而知。乌克兰现任总统亚努科维奇明显带有报复意味,他的死敌季莫申科经常使他丢脸、揭他当年牢狱之灾的伤疤,如果让其恢复自由,就太不像亚努科维奇的作风了。而如果不让公审成为一场政治秀,也太不像季莫申科的作风。法官还没有宣读完判决,她就转向了摄像机:“这是一个独裁政府,我不会停止我的反抗。”被带出法庭后,她呼吁自己的拥护者推翻政府,再次有节奏地反复高呼:“光荣属于乌克兰!”

Outside, a few thousand supporters were pushed around by riot police, but this was a poor echo of the crowd seven years ago. Most Ukrainians see the trial as political, but they are too disillusioned to trust opposition leaders. In the past few months Ms Tymoshenko’s modest popularity rating has barely budged even as Mr Yanukovych’s has slid downwards.

法庭外,数千名拥护者被防暴警察推搡着,但这只是七年前那次集会一个微弱的回音。大部分乌克兰人认为这次审判是一个政治问题,但是他们对反对派的领袖们大失所望,不再信任。在过去几个月里,尽管亚努科维奇的声望下挫了,但季莫申科不温不火的声望也几乎没有什么好转。

The significance of the verdict goes far beyond Ms Tymoshenko and Mr Yanukovych. It will determine the country’s future direction. By locking up Ms Tymoshenko, Mr Yanukovych has crossed a line separating the chaotic and corrupt but pluralist country that Ukraine was from the Putin-style kleptocracy it is becoming. Since being elected president in February 2010, Mr Yanukovych has moved in two directions, consolidating his personal power but also pursuing economic integtion with the European Union. His democratic failings were offset in the eyes of some Western leaders by a contrast with the infuriatingly ineffective Mr Yushchenko. After 18 months of Mr Yanukovych, Ukraine looks more like Russia; but it is closer to a trade and association agreement with the EU.

陪审团的裁决比季莫申科和亚努科维奇的影响更为深远,因为这决定了国家未来的方向。乌克兰是一个动乱的、腐败的但多元化的国家,离普金式的盗贼统治国家只有一线之隔,而通过关押季莫申科,亚努科维奇已经跨过了这条线,这个国家正在渐渐成为俄罗斯。自从2010年2月份当选依赖,亚努科维奇就在往两个方向努力,即巩固个人权利,但同时也努力同欧盟进行经济一体化。在一些西方领导人看来,因为亚努科维奇和无能到令人恼火的尤先科有着天壤之别,他在民主方面的缺陷就被抵消了。亚努科维奇执政18个月以来,乌克兰变得越来越像俄罗斯,但是同欧盟签订贸易联系国协议的可能性更大了。

Ms Tymoshenko’s imprisonment now jeopardises years of clumsy but steady progress towards Europe. Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, made an uncharacteristically firm statement that Ms Tymoshenko’s case would have “profound implications for EU-Ukraine bilateral relations, including for the conclusion of the association agreement.” Mr Yanukovych may have hoped that Ukraine was too important and the risk of pushing it into a Russian embrace too great for Europe to react strongly. What he failed to understand is that it is not sympathy for Ms Tymoshenko that triggered such a response, but his abuse of a core European value, the rule of law. As Carl Bildt, Sweden’s foreign minister, put it “of course, few saints grace Ukrainian politics…but whether saint or sinner, everyone deserves a fair hearing, not a show trial.”

乌克兰接近欧洲的进程缓慢但稳定,而季莫申科的监禁却在阻碍这个过程。欧盟对外政策主席凯瑟琳•艾什顿在一份声明中说地异乎寻常得坚定,季莫申科的事件“对欧乌双边关系将产生重大影响,包括联合协议的签订。”亚努科维奇可能幻想过,乌克兰对欧盟来说至关重要,如果把乌克兰推入俄罗斯的怀抱,对欧洲来说风险太大,因此欧洲对这次审判不会有强烈反应。但他没有理解的是,欧洲做出这种反应的导火线不是对季莫申科的同情,而是他自己对欧洲核心价值观的玷污,也就是法治原则。瑞典外长卡尔•比尔德说:“当然,乌克兰政坛几乎没有圣人,但不管是圣人还是罪人都有权得到公平的审判,而不是一场作秀一般的听证会。”

Unusually, Russia was also cross about the verdict, if for different reasons. Convicting Ms Tymoshenko for a gas deal done with Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister and future president, has an “anti-Russian undertone”, said the foreign ministry. Mr Putin was warier: “Tymoshenko for us, and for me personally, is neither a friend nor a relative. In fact, she is more of a political opponent because [of her] pro-Western orientation.” But questioning gas agreements, Mr Putin said, was “dangerous and counter-productive”. What really irks the Kremlin is that Mr Yanukovych is trying to get lower gas prices from Russia even as he knocks at the EU’s door.

反常的是,俄罗斯也反对这项裁决,哪怕是出于不同的原因。俄罗斯外交部认为,因同俄罗斯总理、准总统弗拉基米尔•普京签订天然气合同而宣判季莫申科有罪,这个行为具有“反俄罗斯倾向”。普京谨慎地说:“季莫申科对我们来说,既不是朋友也不是亲人,对我本人也一样。实际上,她更像是一个政治对手,因为她有亲西方的立场。”但普京说,对天然气协议的质疑是“危险的,而且达不到预期目的。”真正惹恼俄罗斯政府的是,亚努科维奇一边在努力加入欧盟,一边却试图以更低的价格从俄罗斯进口天然气。

Mr Putin sees Ukraine as a crucial part of his plan to reintegrate former Soviet republics into a new Eurasian union that would rival the EU. This idea, formulated in a recent newspaper article, may be a leitmotif of his next presidency. “We are not talking about recreating the Soviet Union. It would be naive to try to restore it…we propose a powerful supranational union capable of becoming a pole of the modern world,” he wrote. Without Ukraine, the largest and most important former republic, any such union would be worthless.

普京计划重组前苏联加盟共和国,建成一个新的欧亚联盟,能与欧盟相抗衡,他认为乌克兰是这个计划的重要组成部分。他在一篇近期刊登的文章中确切地阐述了这个想法,他说这个计划将成为他下一届任期中的主旋律。他写道:“我们不是要重建苏联,这是一个幼稚的想法……我们在构想一个超出国家范围的同盟,能够成为当代世界的一极。如果没有乌克兰这个最大最重要的前苏联共和国参与,这个同盟就没有意义。

At a meeting on September 24th, Mr Putin tried to persuade Mr Yanukovych that Ukraine would get cheaper gas and much more if it joined Russia’s customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Europe, he argued, would never accept Ukraine against Russia’s will, whereas a union with Russia would bring clear economic gains. Yet it is not just economic benefits that Mr Yanukovych wants from the EU. What he and much of the Ukrainian elite crave is political recognition, visa-free travel and access to Western bank accounts and property. A union with Russia would compromise not only Ukraine’s sovereignty but also the elite’s control over their own assets. And Mr Yanukovych believes that taking Ukraine closer to Europe would earn him a place in history and redeem his past.

在9月24日的一次回忆中,普京试图劝说亚努科维奇,如果乌克兰加入俄罗斯建立的海关同盟(还包括白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦),就能够以低许多的价格购买天然气。他认为,如果俄罗斯不同意,欧洲是不可能接纳乌克兰的,但是同俄罗斯结盟会带来明显的经济利益。然而,亚努科维奇想从欧盟得到的不仅是经济利益,和许多乌克兰精英一样,他渴求的是政治认同、免签证旅游以及在欧洲的银行开户和拥有资产的权利。同俄罗斯结盟不仅会损害乌克兰的主权,还会损害乌克兰精英阶层对私有财产的控制权。亚努科维奇认为,乌克兰如果同欧洲的关系更亲近,将会使他本人名留青史,并能改写自己的历史。

If he is to get there, he must let Ms Tymoshenko out. He can still do this. Mr Yanukovych told journalists this week that “today the court took its decision in the bounds of the current criminal code. This is not the final decision…there is the court of appeal ahead, and what decision it will take and under which legislation has great importance.” In Ukraine nothing is ever fixed. Mr Yanukovych has just submitted a draft of a new criminal code to the Rada (parliament) that would soften punishment for economic crimes without making reference to the articles used to convict Ms Tymoshenko. The opposition will propose amendments specifically to decriminalise Ms Tymoshenko’s article (abuse of office without personal gain), which dates to Soviet days. If these amendments are supported by Mr Yanukovych’s party, the new criminal code would be retrospective—and Ms Tymoshenko would be freed.

要达到这个目的,他必须释放季莫申科,现在这么做还来得及。本周,亚努科维奇告诉记者,“今天法庭作出这个判决是以现有刑法为根据的。这不是最终判决……还有上诉法院的判决,上诉法院做出的决定及其法律依据有很重要的意义。”在乌克兰,什么事情都是未知数。亚努科维奇刚刚向国会呈递了一份新刑法草案,建议对经济犯罪减轻惩罚,该草案没有提到宣判季莫申科的条款。反对党提出的修正案则专门提出使该条款非刑事化(滥用职权但不谋取私利),该条款制定与前苏联时期。如果这些修正案得到了亚努科维奇一党的支持,那么新刑法就具有了追溯效力,季莫申科就能够被释放。

Timing is of the essence. On October 20th Mr Yanukovych is due to visit Brussels. His trip could be cancelled without a positive development in the Tymoshenko case. Letting her go would be the wisest course, even if wisdom in Ukraine is often in short supply.

问题的关键就在于时间。亚努科维奇将于10月20日访问布鲁塞尔。如果季莫申科案未取得积极进展,这次行程可能会取消。即使乌克兰总是显得不够聪明,释放季莫申科将会是其最明智的选择。
Time can both ruin everything and build everything-It depends on you
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