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[经济学人] [2011.10.22]Not as close as lips and teeth未必有唇齿般亲近

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发表于 2011-10-28 17:08 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Not as close as lips and teeth
未必有唇齿般亲近


China should not fear India’s growing friendship with Vietnam
中国不应畏惧印度和越南不断增加的合作往来
WHEN China’s sovereignty is at issue Global Times, a Beijing newspaper, does not mince words. In September it growled that a contract between Vietnam and an Indian state-owned oil-and-gas company, ONGC, to explore in Chinese-claimed waters in the South China Sea would “push China to the limit”. Yet this month India and Vietnam have reached an agreement on “energy co-operation”. Global Times is incensed that this was signed just a day after Vietnam, during a visit to Beijing by the head of its communist party, Nguyen Phu Trong, had agreed with China on “ground rules” for solving maritime squabbles. Now, thundered the paper, “China may consider taking actions to show its stance and prevent more reckless attempts in confronting China.”
不知道什么时候中国主权问题成为了《环球时报》直言不讳的热议话题。在9月该报刊愤愤不平的报道了越南和一家印度国有石油天然气公司——ONGC签订了合作协议,该协议旨在开采中国南海中国领域的资源以此来牵制中国。而且在本月印度河越南已经就能源合作问题达成协议。该协议签订是在越南共产党领导人阮富仲访华期间和中方就海事争端问题达成一致之后。这更激怒了《环球时报》。目前,该报刊怒斥道,中国应该考虑采取行动表示出立场来阻止更多的和中国抗衡的无理的举动。

The more sober China Energy News, a publication of the Communist Party’s People’s Daily, has weighed in, warning India that its “energy strategy is slipping into an extremely dangerous whirlpool.” Behind such fulminations lie two Chinese fears. One is that India’s involvement complicates its efforts to have its way in the tangled territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The second is that India and Vietnam are seeking closer relations as part of an American-led strategy to contain China. Even if the first worry has some basis, fears of containment are overblown.
“更为冷静”的《中国能源报》——人民日报的出版物,已经警告印度其能源策略正在陷入极端危险的漩涡中。在这些严词谴责的背后中国也有二方面的担忧。一是印度的涉入使得本有眉目的南海的领土争论问题更加复杂化。另外一个是印度河越南正在试图寻找以美国为首的牵制中国的策略更亲密的关系。不过即便是第一种担忧有些根据,对牵制未免过于担心了。

As Mr Trong was in China, however, Vietnam’s president, Truong Tan Sang, was in India, to pursue the two countries’ “strategic partnership”. Paranoid Chinese nationalists could be forgiven for feeling ganged up on. After all, ignoring the border clashes with the former Soviet Union in 1969, these were the countries on the other side of China’s two most recent wars. In both Delhi and Hanoi the experience of brief “punitive” invasion by China respectively still colours attitudes. India was humiliated by China’s foray into what is now Arunachal Pradesh in 1962. Vietnam’s fierce response to the Chinese invasion of 1979 has become part of national legend of perpetual resistance to Chinese domination.
然而,当阮富仲在中国时,越南首相张晋创正在印度极力促成二个国家的战略合作伙伴关系。一些偏执的中国民族主义者或许会体谅他们的联合。毕竟,不考虑1969年和越南苏维埃政府的冲突,这2个国家在中国最近的2次战争中不同方。德里和河内都曾经历过中国对其惩罚性的入侵,并且至今仍然影响着他们对中态度。在1962年中国攻击现在是阿鲁纳恰尔邦,这是印度的耻辱。越南对1979年中国的入侵做出强烈反应,表示接受作为受中国支配永久存在,并将此作为民族传统的一部分。

Vietnam still claims the Paracel islands in the South China Sea, from which China evicted it in 1974, as well as the much-contested Spratlys to the south, where over 70 Vietnamese sailors died in clashes with China in 1988. Tension in the area remains high. Earlier this year, after a Vietnamese ship had its surveying cables cut by a Chinese patrol boat, hundreds joined anti-China protests in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
和南部的南沙群岛一样,越南仍然称1974年被中国驱逐的南海为西沙群岛,其中在1988年超过70的越南海员在南沙群岛死于和中国的冲突中。至今这个地区的局势很紧张。今年初始,越南船的测量电缆被中国的巡逻船给截断,在河内和胡志明市上百人加入反华抗议。

So Vietnam welcomes India’s support, just as it was buoyed last year by America’s declaration, aimed at China’s perceived assertiveness, of a “national interest” in freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Of Vietnam’s partners in the Association of South-East Asian Nations, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines also have partial claims in the sea. Vietnam naturally would like to present as united a front as possible against China’s claims.
因此越南欢迎印度的支持,这是被美国的声明所鼓动,目的是让中方感知到越南对在南海航海自由的国家利益的自信。在东南亚国家联盟的越南伙伴中,文莱,买来西亚和菲律宾已经对海域发表了部分声明,越南自然希望表现出一种联合的统一战线来对抗中国。

It is against this background that some Indian strategists see an opportunity: Vietnam could be “India’s Pakistan”, a loyal ally, as Pakistan is for China, that exerts indirect, debilitating pressure on its strategic rival. Harsh Pant, a professor of defence studies at King’s College, London, argues that Vietnam offers India an entry-point, through which it can “penetrate China’s periphery”.
这和一些印度战略家看到的机会的背景相违背。越南极有可能成为”印度的巴基斯坦”,——就像巴基斯坦对于中国一样的一个忠实的合作伙伴,间接发挥作用,使得策略家们屏住的喘息得到压力的缓解,一个伦敦国王大学国防研究院的教授争论说越南提供给印度一个变换方式,依此印度可以渗透到中国的外围。

Tweaking China appeals to Indian diplomats, who habitually complain that their big neighbour refuses to make room for their own country’s rise. Behind that resentment lurks irritation at China’s effort to exert influence in India’s own backyard, not just through its “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan, but in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka as well. Indeed, on Mr Sang’s heels in India came Myanmar’s president, Thein Sein, as India attempts to make up diplomatic ground it has lost to China.
对中国战略调整吸引了一些印度外交家,他们习惯了抱怨印度的大邻居拒绝为印度的提升让出一席之地。在这些愤恨潜伏的背后促进的中国运用对印度自身的影响的努力,不在只是单纯的通过和巴基斯坦的一衣带水的关系,也通过孟加拉国,缅甸,斯里兰卡,事实上,在桑先生的假借印度招来缅甸总理添盛以此作为印度在 外交场上和解的尝试时已经输给了中国。

India also wants to push back against what it sees as Chinese provocations. Among these is the apparent Chinese stoking of the unresolved territorial disputes that led to the 1962 war. In recent years it has revived its claim to most of Arunachal Pradesh. No wonder backing Vietnamese claims in the South China Sea appeals to some Indian hawks. Already, in July, an Indian naval ship off Vietnam ignored a radio warning, apparently from the Chinese navy, that it was entering Chinese waters.
印度视图向后推来反抗作为对中国的挑衅。其中这些是显而易见中国对未解决的领土争议燃起战火,导致了1962年的战争。最近几年更助长了他对阿鲁纳恰尔邦的声称宣告。难怪支持越南的印度人称南海吸引了一些印度鹰派。在7月,一个印度军舰无视显然来自中国海军的无线电预警进入中国海域遣送越南人。

China resents anything that smacks of efforts to thwart its rise as a global power. Talk of India’s selling Vietnam the BrahMos missiles it has developed jointly with Russia is still speculative. But Chinese strategists will fret about the purpose of the regular “security dialogue” agreed on during Mr Sang’s visit. It comes as Indian press reports suggest India has decided to deploy BrahMos missiles in Arunachal, pointed at Chinese-controlled Tibet. Behind India’s assertiveness and its closer ties with Vietnam, China detects America’s hand. In July Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, urged India “to engage east and act east as well”.
中国厌恶一切作为一种的全球力量来阻碍其发展的一切行动。谈起印度向越南销售导弹而且已经和俄国联合开发,中国依然在揣测,但是中国策略家对于何桑先生访华的常规安全对话协议的目的更加烦躁。这源自印度媒体报道表示印度已经决定在阿鲁纳恰尔配置巡航导弹直指中国西藏。在印度自信的背后以及和越南的亲密关系,中国觉察到”美国的手”,在7月美国国务卿希拉里•克林顿督促印度不要光说不做,要知行合一。

Vietnam’s Vietnam  越南的越南
But to see India and Vietnam as compliant partners in an American-orchestrated anti-China front is off the mark for three reasons. Both countries are fiercely independent. Neither is going to do America’s bidding, and Vietnam is certainly not going to be India’s Pakistan. Second, their relations are about far more than China. They go back centuries (it is Indo-China, after all) and have been improving for decades. Sanjaya Baru, editor of the Business Standard, an Indian newspaper, and former spokesman for the prime minister, has called it “perhaps the most well-rounded bilateral relationship that India has with any country”.
但是看看印度和越南作为美国协调起来的一致反华的复杂的合作者顺利的起步的3个原因。第一:二个国家都是非常独立的。他们都不愿做美国的投标,而且越南当然不愿成为印度的巴基斯坦。第二:他们的关系和中国远近相当,他们追溯世纪(就是印度支那,毕竟)而且最近几十年已经有了改善。印度《商业标准报》的编辑桑贾亚•巴鲁和首相前发言人称他为“印度河任何国家建立的或许是最面面俱到的双边关系。

Third, both insist—plausibly—that they want good relations with China, now India’s biggest trading partner. And after all, Mr Trong was in China even as Mr Sang was in India. Hu Jintao, China’s president, was reported as counselling Vietnam to “stick to using dialogue and consultations to handle properly problems in bilateral relations.” Of course, if China itself had been consistent in following Mr Hu’s advice, the improvement in relations between India and Vietnam might not have such an impetus behind it, and, viewed from Beijing, might seem far less sinister.
第三,都一致坚持仿佛是真的一样——他们想要和中国保持友好关系,而且现在中国是印度最大的贸易合作伙伴。有报道说中国国家主席胡锦涛建议越南坚持用对话和磋商来处理双边关系中的问题。当然,如果中国自身已经遵循胡书记的建议,那么印度和越南的关系的改善将不再是其后的动力,而且从北京方面来看,或许似乎没有那么阴险。
from the print edition | Asia

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