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[求助咨询] The euro crisis, finito?

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发表于 2011-11-11 17:07 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
The euro crisis finito?
Nov 9th 2011, 15:09 by R.A. | WASHINGTON  
SILVIO BERLUSCONI'S promise to resign has done nothing to calm European bond markets. Italian bond yields are soaring today; both the two-year and the ten-year are above 7%. There are rumours that the ECB is in the market and buying heavily. If so, it's not having the desired effect. The ECB can't hope to keep yields reasonable through brute force. It will need to make an expectations-changing announcement. Will it? Italy's yields aren't the only ones rising. Markets are ditching Irish, Spanish, Belgian, and French debt too. The ten-year Treasury is back below 2%.
Yesterday, I wondered why equities weren't falling. Today, they are. But I think Tim Duy is on to something here:
“All I can say is that we have been here before. Recall 2007...
By the middle of 2007 the TED spread was exploding, signaling enormous financial turmoil. Yet equities kept heading upward, fueled by data that was just not that bad coupled with ongoing expectations that a solution was just around the corner. And now we find ourselves in almost the exact same position...the news out of Europe is abysmal...There is no solution, no magic summit at hand. At this point, it is a choice between severe recession and depression. There is no happy ending to this story.”
I have been examining and re-examining the situation, trying to find the potential happy ending. It isn't there. The euro zone is in a death spiral. Markets are abandoning the periphery, including Italy, which is the world's eighth largest economy and third largest bond market. This is triggering margin calls and leading banks to pull credit from the European market. This, in turn, is damaging the European economy, which is already being squeezed by the austerity programmes adopted in every large euro-zone economy. A weakening economy will damage revenues, undermining efforts at fiscal consolidation, further driving away investors and potentially triggering more austerity. The cycle will continue until something breaks. Eventually, one economy or another will face a true bank run and severe capital flight and will be forced to adopt capital controls. At that point, it will effectively be out of the euro area. What happens next isn't clear, but it's unlikely to be pretty.
Can this cycle be interrupted? I think so. I think that an ECB guarantee to backstop sovereign debt, coupled with massive purchases to establish credibility and a substantial easing in monetary policy, could change the dynamic, particularly if quickly followed up with a major fiscal commitment from core economies to support bail-out efforts and invest in peripheral economies while peripheral economies focus on substantial labour market, public-sector, and tax reforms. How likely does all of that sound? Could the ECB even commit to the above bold actions without facing debilitating criticism, and perhaps intervention, from national governments?
I hate to get this pessimistic about the situation. It feels panicky and overwrought. I can't believe that Europe would allow so damaging an outcome as a financial collapse and break-up to occur. And I still don't understand why, if this is all as obvious as it seems to me, equities aren't down 20% now, rather than 2% or 3%. But the window within which something could be done to prevent it is closing, and fast. I hope to be proven astoundingly wrong in my assessment, but I'm struggling to see alternative outcomes.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/euro-crisis-5
欧债危机,结束?
Nov 9th 2011, 15:09 by R.A. | WASHINGTON  
意大利总理西尔维奥·贝鲁斯科尼辞职的承诺没有给欧洲债券市场带来一丁点儿的平静。今天意大利债券的收益率飙升,两年期和十年期的债券收益率均超过了7%。有传言说这是欧洲央行在市场上大举买入的结果。假使如此,那就不会产生预期的效果,因为欧洲央行不希望借助外力来达到合理的收益率。而且它还需为此做出一个预期改变的声明,它会这样做吗?收益率上涨的并非只有意大利一国。市场也正在抛弃爱尔兰、西班牙、保加利亚和法国的国债,其十年期国债的收益率回到了2%以下。
昨天我还奇怪为什么无固定利率证券居然没有下跌。今天,他们果然跌了。但是我认为蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)在这儿说到了点子上:
“我只能说我们曾经遇到过这种情况。回想起2007年……
到2007年中期,TED传播迅猛发展,并且预测了巨大的金融风暴。然而,证券市场却昂扬直上。由于数据显示情况并没有那么糟糕,还伴随着对解决方案即将出台持续增长的预期。现在我们发现自己差不多身处同样的境地。来自欧洲的消息令人非常沮丧。现在我们手头上没有解决方案,也没有神奇的领导人峰会。目前我们只有在严重的经济衰退和大萧条当中进行选择,看来这件事不会有一个美好的结局。”
我对当前情况一再审视,试着去寻找一个美好的结局,可惜的是我没有找到。现在的欧元区就像处在死亡螺旋中的飞机一般危险。市场正在抛弃外围国家,包括意大利,世界上第八大经济体和世界上最大的债券市场。这引发了追加保证金的要求,也导致了银行从欧洲市场撤出信用。反过来,又伤害了被欧元区所有大经济体实行紧缩政策所压榨的欧洲经济。疲软的经济会损害财源,会破坏整合财政的努力,也会进一步驱赶投资者并有可能引发更多的紧缩政策出台。这个循环会一直持续下去直到有某种情况发生。最终,将会有一个或者多个经济体面临银行挤兑和严重的资本逃逸问题。他们会因此被迫采取资本管制措施。到那个时候,资本管制的有效性怕是早已出了欧元区。下面将要发生什么还不清楚,但绝不会是什么好事。
这个循环可以中断吗?我想是可以的。只要欧洲央行保证扶持并大规模购买主权债券以建立信用,同时实行大量宽松的货币政策,我认为可以改变目前充满变数的欧洲经济。尤其是,假如接踵而至的就是来自核心经济体对纾困的努力和对外围经济体的最大财政承诺,与此同时,外围经济体也致力于对庞大的劳动力市场、公共部门和税收制度进行改革。这些听起来怎么样?欧洲央行能够在不遭受来自诸多国家令人头疼的批评和可能干涉的条件下做出上述大胆的行动吗?
我不愿对局势如此悲观,这让我感到恐慌和过度紧张。我不愿相信欧洲会允许如此极具破坏性的金融崩溃出现。如果所有的都如我看来那般明显,我现在仍然不明白为什么现在债券跌了20%,而不是2%或3%。但是能够阻止这件事情发生的机会之窗已经被很快的关上了。我希望我的评价被证明是令人惊讶的错误,但是我仍然努力地想看到替代的结果是什么。
注:finito,意大利语,意为结束、完了。
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